01-28-2018, 11:08 PM
*** 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
****
![[Image: g180128b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180128b.jpg)
Map of Yemen showing regions held by Houthis and allies, Government forces and allies, and al-Qaeda presence (al-Jazeera)
Dozens of people were killed or wounded on Sunday in the port city of
Aden on the southern coast of Yemen, as the result of clashes between
the forces of the official government of Yemen, backed by Saudi
Arabia, versus the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist
faction backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), and claiming Aden as the
capital city of Southern Yemen.
A week ago, Yemen was in the midst of a proxy war between two
different governments backed by two different foreign countries. But
now, at this moment, Yemen's proxy war now has three different three
different governments, backed by three different foreign countries:
In addition, there's one more major non-government force in Yemen, and
that's Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In recent years,
AQAP's leadership has turned from harshly ideological Sharia policies
that alienated the tribal populace into pragmatists that are making
allies of tribal leaders, by providing security, protection, and a
measure of stability.
Since Saudi Arabia and UAE are supposed to be allies, this development
is being called a "war within a war." There have been reports that
officials in both Saudi Arabia and UAE are ordering their militaries
to stop shooting in Aden, and to resolve the issues. If the shooting
does not stop, then it will be AQAP that gains in the south, and the
Houthis that will gain in the north. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and Jamestown
****
**** Brief generational history of South Yemen
****
Because of its location, the port city of Aden has been strategically
important for centuries. In 1839, Britain captured the port of Aden
and southern Yemen from the Ottomans, and was made part of British
India. Britain ruled Aden and southern Yemen, consisting of 24 tribal
states (sultanates, emirates and sheikdoms), until the 1960s.
Yemen's last generational crisis war was the Yemen Civil war, which
began in 1962, and was largely a proxy war involving forces from
Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Britain, the United States, and
(pre-revolutionary) Iran. The Yemen Civil War ended in 1968, and in
the diplomacy that followed, in February 1970 Yemen was split into the
Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, North Yemen) allied with Saudi Arabia, and
the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY, South Yemen), a
Marxist communist country allied with Russia. South Yemen was the
Arab world's only communist state so far.
In 1990, at the end of the generational Recovery era, the two
countries were unified into a single country, Yemen, in an agreement
designed to eliminate all the tensions between the two countries. In
many ways, this was a marriage of convenience, since relations
remained tense, but it put Ali Abdullah Saleh into a clear position of
leadership. There was an attempt at secession by southern
secessionists in 1994, but it was put down quickly, leading to the
entrenchment of Saleh's northern-based regime. Saleh governed Yemen
most of the time since then, until he was killed in December, 2017.
Saleh was the country's president until 2011, when he was ousted as an
outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the
region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his
vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Saleh then formed a "marriage
of convenience" with the Iran-back Shia Zaydi Houthis in northwest
Yemen. On September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa
from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been
living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view
of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen.
Since 2015, the war in Yemen was largely a proxy war between Iran
versus a Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition. In
November 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a land, air and sea blockade on
Yemen, giving as a reason to prevent the Houthis from importing more
of Iran's weapons systems.
This blockade was a humanitarian disaster for Yemen. Yemen is already
one of the poorest countries in the world, and because of the proxy
war, mass starvation and disease have been spreading across the
country. Aid from NGOs was only partially relieving the situation,
but with the Saudi blockade, even that aid was cut off.
The blockade was apparently too much for Saleh. Early in December he
announced that he was separating from the Houthis, and offered to
mediate a ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Three days
later, the Houthis had him ambushed and killed.
The death of Saleh fragmented tribal opposition to the Houthis
in North Yemen, giving the Houthis more substantial control over
the north.
Now the UAE is backing the secessionist Southern Transitional Council
(STC), indicating that the coalition fighting the Houthis is also
fragmenting. In addition to making it even harder for NGOs to provide
aid, to help prevent massive starvation and cholera, this "war within
a war" will help AQAP gain further control through alliances with
other tribes.
Writing anything about Yemen, you can't help but feel sorry for this
poor country. Because of the country's strategic location, everyone
wants a piece of it, and they're willing to fight proxy wars to get a
piece. It's only the people suffering endless misery and poverty, as
helpless pawns subject to constant bombings, starvation and cholera.
It reminds one of the old African proverb: When elephants fight, it's
the grass that suffers. History.com and Global Security and Harvard - History of Yemen Civil War - 1962-68 (PDF)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Aden, Houthis, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Southern Transitional Council, STC,
Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Yemen Civil War, Russia, Egypt, Britain,
Yemen Arab Republic, YAR, North Yemen,
People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, PDRY, South Yemen,
Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Ahmed bin Dagher
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
- Brief generational history of South Yemen
****
**** Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
****
Map of Yemen showing regions held by Houthis and allies, Government forces and allies, and al-Qaeda presence (al-Jazeera)
Dozens of people were killed or wounded on Sunday in the port city of
Aden on the southern coast of Yemen, as the result of clashes between
the forces of the official government of Yemen, backed by Saudi
Arabia, versus the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist
faction backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), and claiming Aden as the
capital city of Southern Yemen.
A week ago, Yemen was in the midst of a proxy war between two
different governments backed by two different foreign countries. But
now, at this moment, Yemen's proxy war now has three different three
different governments, backed by three different foreign countries:
- The internationally recognized government, led by President
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia
because of the war with the Houthis. The Prime Minister of this
government is Ahmed bin Dagher, who has been governing from Aden.
- The Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia ethnic group from northwestern
Yemen, which invaded and conquered Yemen's capital city Sanaa in
2013-14, taking control of all the government buildings.
- The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by United Arab
Emirates (UAE), which wants South Yemen to secede and become a
separate country with Aden as its capital and STC as its
government.
In addition, there's one more major non-government force in Yemen, and
that's Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In recent years,
AQAP's leadership has turned from harshly ideological Sharia policies
that alienated the tribal populace into pragmatists that are making
allies of tribal leaders, by providing security, protection, and a
measure of stability.
Since Saudi Arabia and UAE are supposed to be allies, this development
is being called a "war within a war." There have been reports that
officials in both Saudi Arabia and UAE are ordering their militaries
to stop shooting in Aden, and to resolve the issues. If the shooting
does not stop, then it will be AQAP that gains in the south, and the
Houthis that will gain in the north. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and Jamestown
****
**** Brief generational history of South Yemen
****
Because of its location, the port city of Aden has been strategically
important for centuries. In 1839, Britain captured the port of Aden
and southern Yemen from the Ottomans, and was made part of British
India. Britain ruled Aden and southern Yemen, consisting of 24 tribal
states (sultanates, emirates and sheikdoms), until the 1960s.
Yemen's last generational crisis war was the Yemen Civil war, which
began in 1962, and was largely a proxy war involving forces from
Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Britain, the United States, and
(pre-revolutionary) Iran. The Yemen Civil War ended in 1968, and in
the diplomacy that followed, in February 1970 Yemen was split into the
Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, North Yemen) allied with Saudi Arabia, and
the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY, South Yemen), a
Marxist communist country allied with Russia. South Yemen was the
Arab world's only communist state so far.
In 1990, at the end of the generational Recovery era, the two
countries were unified into a single country, Yemen, in an agreement
designed to eliminate all the tensions between the two countries. In
many ways, this was a marriage of convenience, since relations
remained tense, but it put Ali Abdullah Saleh into a clear position of
leadership. There was an attempt at secession by southern
secessionists in 1994, but it was put down quickly, leading to the
entrenchment of Saleh's northern-based regime. Saleh governed Yemen
most of the time since then, until he was killed in December, 2017.
Saleh was the country's president until 2011, when he was ousted as an
outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the
region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his
vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Saleh then formed a "marriage
of convenience" with the Iran-back Shia Zaydi Houthis in northwest
Yemen. On September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa
from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been
living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view
of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen.
Since 2015, the war in Yemen was largely a proxy war between Iran
versus a Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition. In
November 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a land, air and sea blockade on
Yemen, giving as a reason to prevent the Houthis from importing more
of Iran's weapons systems.
This blockade was a humanitarian disaster for Yemen. Yemen is already
one of the poorest countries in the world, and because of the proxy
war, mass starvation and disease have been spreading across the
country. Aid from NGOs was only partially relieving the situation,
but with the Saudi blockade, even that aid was cut off.
The blockade was apparently too much for Saleh. Early in December he
announced that he was separating from the Houthis, and offered to
mediate a ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Three days
later, the Houthis had him ambushed and killed.
The death of Saleh fragmented tribal opposition to the Houthis
in North Yemen, giving the Houthis more substantial control over
the north.
Now the UAE is backing the secessionist Southern Transitional Council
(STC), indicating that the coalition fighting the Houthis is also
fragmenting. In addition to making it even harder for NGOs to provide
aid, to help prevent massive starvation and cholera, this "war within
a war" will help AQAP gain further control through alliances with
other tribes.
Writing anything about Yemen, you can't help but feel sorry for this
poor country. Because of the country's strategic location, everyone
wants a piece of it, and they're willing to fight proxy wars to get a
piece. It's only the people suffering endless misery and poverty, as
helpless pawns subject to constant bombings, starvation and cholera.
It reminds one of the old African proverb: When elephants fight, it's
the grass that suffers. History.com and Global Security and Harvard - History of Yemen Civil War - 1962-68 (PDF)
Related Articles:
- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
- Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush (05-Dec-2017)
- Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
- War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces (05-Jan-2015)
- Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
- Yemen's president Saleh hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns (31-May-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Aden, Houthis, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Southern Transitional Council, STC,
Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Yemen Civil War, Russia, Egypt, Britain,
Yemen Arab Republic, YAR, North Yemen,
People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, PDRY, South Yemen,
Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Ahmed bin Dagher
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
