Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jan-18 World View -- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea
  
• North Korea cancels joint cultural event because of 'insulting' media reports
  
• Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II
  

****
**** NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea
****


The Korean women's hockey team is planned to include players from both countries (AP)

Mainstream journalists, analysts and economists are generally
incapable of grasping even the simplest generational concepts, so on
the extremely rare occasion when a major publication publishes an
actual generational analysis it's worth noting.

An article in the NY Times by Choe Sang-Hunjan titled "Olympic Dreams
of a United Korea? Many in South Say, ‘No, Thanks’" gives a
generational analysis of South Korea as the Winter Olympics games
approach, and the changing attitudes to reunification of different
South Korean generations.

The article quotes surveys that show a big gap in attitudes between
younger and older South Koreans:

• Across the population, support for reunification has fallen to
  57.8%, down from 69.3% just four years ago.
  
  
• However, 71.2% of South Koreans in their 20s oppose reunification,
  while more than 47% of those 60 and older said the two Koreas must
  reunify "because they belong to the same nation."
  
  
• A "historic agreement" for the North and the South to form a joint
  women's hockey team has been called an "unprecedented breakthrough"
  in relations between the two countries. However, more than 72% of
  South Korean adults overall, and 82% of those in their 20s and 30s,
  oppose it, with many expressing anger that some South Korean players
  would cede their positions to North Koreans.
  
  
• According to one researcher, "Especially men in their 20s, about
  half of them, consider North Korea an outright enemy. To young South
  Koreans, North Korea is someone they don’t want anything to do
  with."

The article quotes a former South Korean foreign minister: "I am taken
aback. Young people seem to think of North Korea as strangers who
barge into their party bringing with them nothing but empty spoons."

The current left-wing South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has long
supported unification, driven by his personal desire to see his
birthplace in the North.

According to the article:

<QUOTE>"Key members of Mr. Moon’s presidential office and
governing party are progressives in their 50s, who went to college
in the 1980s. Then, campuses were rife with anti-American
activism, partly driven by resentment over the division of the
Korean Peninsula after World War II. Students defied the
authorities by sending a “unification envoy” to the World Festival
of Youth and Students, alternative games that North Korea held in
Pyongyang in 1989 to counter the previous year’s Summer Olympics
in Seoul.

Progressives in that era believed in a peaceful process of
reunification, built on the expansion of economic and social
exchanges. Today, many of that generation see the North’s nuclear
weapons program as a desperate attempt to protect itself from the
United States and the South, with which it is still technically at
war."<END QUOTE>

These paragraphs need a bit of interpretation. As I'll explain in
detail below, what the article calls 1980s "progressives" are known as
the "386 Generation" of the 1980s -- affluent, highly
pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly anti-American, since they had no
memory of their parents' extreme poverty and destitution, nor of how
an American military intervention saved South Korea from the North in
1950.

However it is true, as the article points out, that the 386er
generation strongly believed that the communist government of North
Korea was superior to Western democracies, and that the South and the
North could be unified peacefully if only the South could adopt that
same kind of government. Events since then, especially "the fiasco of
the 386 generation" (described below), and North Korea's unstoppable
nuclear missile development, have forced the 386ers to abandon those
extreme radical views, and look for opportunities for peaceful
negotiations. The 2018 Winter Olympics games are the best opportunity
so far. NY Times (or Open version)

****
**** North Korea cancels joint cultural event because of 'insulting' media reports
****

On Monday, North Korea abruptly canceled a joint cultural event to be
held on February 4 in the North Korean territory of Mount Kumgang.
The plan had been for skiers from both sides to train in North Korea's
Masikryong Ski Resort.

The North blamed the South Korean media for encouraging “insulting”
public sentiment regarding the North. There were no specifics given,
but South Korea has a free press, and there has been a lot of
criticism of North Korea. There have also been individual protests,
including burning a picture of North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un,
which would be a capital offense if done in North Korea. However,
it's not known whether those were the problem.

It's suspected that the North is angry about media coverage of North
Korean plans to stage a large military parade in Pyongyang on February
8, just before the start of the Olympics. Some media reports say that
some 50,000 North Korean soldiers will march in the parade, which will
feature the latest in North Korean weapons, including ballistic
missiles. These reports may be the reason why they canceled
the cultural event.

The South Korea's Unification Ministry issued a statement:

<QUOTE>"It is very regrettable that an event agreed by the
South and the North will not be held due to North Korea's
unilateral notification (decision). What has been agreed must be
implemented under the spirit of mutual respect and understanding
as the South and the North have only taken a hard-earned first
step toward improving the South-North relationship."<END QUOTE>

In another development, South Korea's Defense Minister
Song Young-moo said:

<QUOTE>"The North Korean regime will probably be removed from
the map if it uses developed nuclear weapons against South Korea
or the United States.

It's an anachronistic idea that North Korea will use nuclear
weapons for the unification (of the two Koreas)."<END QUOTE>

It's certain that there will continue to be some hostile media
coverage, and it's certain that there will be anti-North protesters
before and during the games. This media coverage will be interpreted
by the North as threatening their new strategy of using the Olympics
to drive a wedge between South Korea and the US. Whether they become
so infuriated that they start canceling other events, or even their
entire participation in the games, remains to be seen. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and UPI and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Yonhap News (Seoul)

****
**** Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II
****

In an article that I wrote in 2007 ( "South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal"
), I included a brief generational history
of South Korea. The following is an update.

Korea is one of the oldest nations on earth, with some 4000 years of
history. Here we can only give a brief summary of its extremely
tumultuous history in the 1900s:

• Japanese occupation. Japan invaded and colonized
  Korea in 1905, and was only expelled when Japan was defeated in World
  War II. Korea's attitude toward Japan remains bitter to this day,
  especially because of the use of
  Korean "comfort women" by the Japanese army during World War II.
  
  
• Korean War. South Korea's last generational crisis war was
  World War II, but the country's Recovery era was delayed because it
  was followed soon after by a non-crisis war ignited by the Communist
  Soviets. Known to us as the Korean War, it became a proxy war between
  United States / United Nations forces in the south versus Russian and
  Korean forces, and eventually Chinese forces as well in the north.
  The fighting ended in a 1953 armistice, but the war never ended, and
  the border between North and South Korea is heavily guarded to this
  day, with both sides having orders to kill on sight. People who lived
  through the Korean War mostly tend to be highly pro-American, and
  value the American forces still in South Korea as protection from
  North Korean forces.
  
  
• April 19 Revolution (1960). The U.S. military ruled S.
  Korea from 1945-48, when the First Republic of South Korea was
  established. Like subsequent governments, this government was
  extremely repressive and used violence against demonstrators and
  jailing of dissidents freely to maintain control. As the country
  entered its generational Awakening era in 1960, student demonstrations
  protested what it claimed was a corrupt election on March 15. This is
  known as the "April Revolution." Police started shooting at
  rock-throwing students. On April 11, a student's body was found on
  the beach. The skull had been penetrated by a tear gas grenade. On
  April 19, students at Korea University began protesting against police
  violence and called for new elections. The massive student
  demonstrations brought down the government, forcing the resignation of
  Rhee Syng-man, and the suicide of the Prime Minister and his
  family.
  
  
• President Park Chung-hee (1961-79) President Park
  dominated South Korea for almost 20 years, through the Second, Third
  and Fourth Republics of South Korea, several constitutional changes,
  and several assassination attempts. Park's detractors refer to his
  oppressive government, while his champions credit him with the
  modernization of South Korea, greatly raising the standard of living,
  and turning it into one of the most powerful economies in the world.
  Park was assassinated on October 26, 1979, by the chief of the Korean
  Central Intelligence Agency; the KCIA had been established by Park
  himself in 1961 in his fight against Communist and North Korean
  infiltration.[/b]
  
  
• 12/12 coup d'état (1979) and Kwangju massacre (1980).
  Following Park's assassination, violence within the government led to
  a coup d'état on December 12, 1979. This aroused massive student
  demonstrations against the government in the city of Kwangju
  (Gwangju) on May 18, 1980. The demonstrations were brutally
  suppressed through a declaration of martial law. Later investigations
  found that hundreds of students were killed, and there were unproved
  allegations of involvement of U.S. forces on behalf of the
  government.
  
  
• "Kwangju generation" defeats "April 19" generation (1987).
  In American terms, this is Generation-X versus the Boomers. But in
  Korea, it was a new, but minor coup d'état. The Kwangju massacre had
  galvanized the college age generation (like America's Generation-X),
  and massive riots beginning on June 10, 1987, forced the previous
  generation's military regime to resign, in favor of new elections,
  leading to the formation of the Sixth Republic of South Korea. This
  generation was affluent, highly pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly
  anti-American, since they had no memory of their parents' extreme
  poverty and destitution, nor of how an American military intervention
  saved South Korea from the North in 1950.
  
  
• The 386 Generation (1990-2008). The generation that we've
  been calling the "Kwangju generation" gave itself a new name in the
  1990s: the "386 Generation" or the "386ers". This name was chosen
  because they were all in their 30s (at that time), they had been
  activists in the 1980s, and they had been born in the 1960s. The name
  "386 Generation" fell out of favor the disastrous failure of the Roh
  Moo-hyun administration, which ended in 2008.
  
  
• Kim Dae-jung and the "Sunshine Policy" (1997). 1997 saw
  the first transfer of the government between parties by peaceful
  means, as Kim Dae-jung won the Presidential election. His policies
  reflected the new-found power of the 386 generation and, in
  particular, brought a fundamental change of policy towards North
  Korea known as the "Sunshine Policy." Kim attempted to reconcile
  with the North, and held a summit meeting with Kim Jong-il, for which
  Kim Dae-jung received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000.[/b]
  
  
• Roh Moo-hyun and far-left government(2003-2008). Roh
  Moo-hyun, born in 1946, was not strictly a 386er, but he supported
  their policies and was considered one of their own. The 386ers got
  Roh elected President in 2002, and forced a far-left radicalization of
  the government in 2003, with some 20 386ers in high positions of power
  in the government. The administration was strongly pro-unification
  with North Korea, despite the North's nuclear weapons development.
  However, a major financial scandal late in 2006 threw the government
  into a crisis from which it couldn't extricate itself. This was
  described as "the fiasco of the 386 generation," causing the "386"
  name, which had previously evoked strong feelings of pride, to fall
  into disuse.
  
  
• Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and center-right government
  (2008-2017) Just as the 386ers rejected the pro-Western values of
  their parents' generation, the children of the 386ers rejected the
  far-left values of the 386ers. Disillusionment with the Roh
  administration led to a movement to the right by the population, led
  by the younger voters, and an improved relationship with the US and
  West. Lee Myung-bak was elected in 2008, and Park Geun-hye was
  elected in 2013.
  
  
• North Koreans torpedo Cheonan warship and shell Yeonpyeong
  Island (2010) South Korean attitudes took a sharp turn to the
  right in 2010. In May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
  killing dozens
  of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed
  South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
  The North Koreans correctly calculated that the
  South would be too politically weak to respond, but these acts of war
  caused a reversal of pro-unification sentiment, and a big increase in
  distrust of North Korea. These acts are a big reason why young South
  Koreans are distrustful of and hostile to North Koreans today.
  
  
• Moon Jae-in and the return of the 386 Generation (2017-)
  Although the phrase "386 Generation" is no longer used, the election
  of Moon Jae-in in May 2017 was the return of a center-left
  administration populated by 386ers. Moon won on a pro-unification
  platform, promising to resolve the North Korean nuclear missile threat
  peacefully through negotiations, and also to develop closer relations
  with China. However, when North Korea made a major new ballistic
  missile launch on July 29, Moon was forced to respond by approving
  further deployment of the American THAAD anti-missile and advanced
  radar systems in South Korea -- something that was bitterly opposed by
  both China and South Korea.
  
  
• North Korea changes strategy as PyeongChang 2018 Olympics
  games approach (2018) In anticipation of the Winter Olympics, to
  be held in South Korea from February 9-25, North Korea adopted a major
  change of strategy. North Korea offered to send a team of athletes to
  the South Korea Olympics, in return for postponing the annual US-South
  Korea military drills normally held around the same time. President
  Moon strongly supported this move as an opening for possible future
  reunification. However, the move was widely criticized by South
  Koreans, young Koreans, as a political stunt designed to give the
  North more time to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic
  missiles.

That 2007 article was written in response to conciliatory policy
changes by the George Bush administration, resulting in euphoria on
the part of South Koreans. In that article, I quoted a BBC
correspondent, Charles Scanlon in Seoul, who described the euphoria as
unrealistic:

<QUOTE>"We are seeing something approaching euphoria, from at
least among some members of the South Korean government, in
reaction to this agreement that was signed in Beijing.

The Unification Minister who's responsible for relations with the
North said this could be a turning point in the establishment of
a peace regime on the Korean peninsula.

And certainly the South Koreans do feel to some extent vindicated
by what has been in effect a major change in U.S. policy toward
North Korea.

They've been urging a more conciliatory approach from the very
beginning, and they're certainly very relieved that the Americans
now do seem serious about getting a negotiated settlement with the
North Koreans, and they've softened some of their pressure
tactics.

The president, Roh Moo-hyun, said he's expecting a very easy
implementation of this accord.

I think there we are seeing really wishful thinking on the
President's part, because after all any agreement with the North
Koreans is not going to come easy."<END QUOTE>

I don't know whether the current president Moon Jae-in personally
feels euphoria about the new Winter Olympics détente, but as we've
described, the young generation of South Koreans feel little but
anger. The controversy has sent South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s
overall approval rating below 60% for the first time since he took
office in May last year, dropping more than 6 percentage points in one
week. Korea Times (5-Feb-2008) and Meng News (3-Jun-2014)

Related Articles

• North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
  
  
• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  
  
• South Korean civilians shelled by North Koreans (24-Nov-2010)
  
  
• S. Korea accuses N. Korea of sinking warship (21-May-2010)
  
  
• South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
  
  
• Korea - Japan relations nosedive over long-disputed islands (18-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, NY Times, Choe Sang-Hunjan, South Korea, North Korea,
Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un, 386 Generation, Mount Kumgang,
Song Young-moo, April 19 Revolution, Park Chung-hee,
Kwangju massacre, Gwangju massacre, Kim Dae-jung, Sunshine Policy,
Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye,
Cheonan warship, Yeonpyeong Island,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Charles Scanlon

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John J. Xenakis
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