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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan
  • Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis

****
**** New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan
****


[Image: g180131b.jpg]
Taliban presence in Afghanistan districts (BBC)

A new study by the BBC, based on interviews with 1200 people across
Afghanistan, finds that the Taliban are in full control of 4% of
Afghanistan's districts, and have an active and open physical presence
in a further 66%, significantly higher than previous estimates of
Taliban strength. That means that only about 30% of the districts are
still controlled by the Afghan government. The interviews were
conducted late in 2017.

The extent to which the Taliban partially or fully control districts
of Afghanistan has been one of the most useful statistics used by
analysts and politicians for gauging the success of the Nato coalition
in defeating the Taliban.

However, there are indications that the US military is trying to
suppress this kind of information. The Quarterly Report To The United
States Congress issued by the Special Inspector General for
Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) was released on Tuesday. According
to the report, SIGAR has been specifically instructed by the US
military not to release this kind of information any more, even though
it's unclassified. According to the report:

<QUOTE>"Aside from that, the number of districts controlled
or influenced by the Afghan government had been one of the last
remaining publicly available indicators for members of Congress --
many of whose staff do not have access to the classified annexes
to SIGAR reports -- and for the American public of how the
16-year long U.S. effort to secure Afghanistan is
faring. Historically, the number of districts controlled or
influenced by the government has been falling since SIGAR began
reporting on it, while the number controlled or influenced by the
insurgents has been rising -- a fact that should cause even more
concern about its disappearance from public disclosure and
discussion."<END QUOTE>


A spokesman in Kabul, representing the US-led Nato coalition, denied
both reports, saying that the Taliban contested or controlled only 44%
of the Afghan districts, and that SIGAR had not been instructed to
withhold unclassified data.

Whatever the actual figure is, no one as far as I know questions the
fact that the Taliban have been gaining territory and the Afghan
government has been losing territory, ever since most foreign troops
left the country in 2014. And this trend is going to continue.
BBC and
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
and Reuters

****
**** Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis
****


As I've been writing for years, a generational analysis there is no
chance at all that the Taliban will be defeated in Afghanistan.
Journalists, analysts and politicians are unable to grasp even the
simplest generational analysis. Nonetheless, it's worthwhile
summarizing what I've described in the past.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic
Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a
generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is
coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the
atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for
revenge.

This growing generation of young vengeful Pashtuns cannot be defeated
by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of
forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at
any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the
Northern Alliance.

Afghanistan's capital city Kabul has been targeted in just the last
two weeks by a series of massive terrorist attacks, killing hundreds
of people. Furthermore, these attacks have been inside the most
well-protected areas of Kabul, indicating that the Taliban terrorists
have had help from the inside -- undoubtedly provided by other Pashtun
youths.

The fact that the Taliban are gaining more and more territory each
year is just a reflection of the fact that more and more youngsters in
the Pashtun generation are coming of age, and are willing to avenge
what they consider to be the atrocities committed against their
parents' generation.

There's no way to stop this. This generation is going to continue
growing, while foreign forces increasingly tire of fighting a war that
most Westerners don't even care about.

However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US
administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with
China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be
valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. France 24

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Nato,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
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1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghani - by John J. Xenakis - 01-31-2018, 11:25 PM
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