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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 10-Feb-18 World View -- Egypt's army announces major counter-terrorism operation in Sinai - with Israel's help

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Egypt's army launches 'Comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018' to purge country of terrorism
  • Multiple reports indicate that Egypt and Israel are cooperating in Sinai

****
**** Egypt's army launches 'Comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018' to purge country of terrorism
****


[Image: g171124b.jpg]
From November 2017: Rescue personnel at the site of the bomb blast at Al-Rawda mosque in North Sinai. (Gulf News)

Egypt's army announced the launch of a major military operation in the
Sinai Peninsula. The operation will be targeting several jihadist
terror militias, but it's expected that the major target will be the
Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar
Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to
al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in
2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

In November, at least 235 people were killed when ABM terrorists stormed the Al-Rawda mosque in Bir al-Abed in Egypt's Northern Sinai
with explosives and gunfire with heavy
weapons.

At that time, Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi promised revenge
for these "vile and treacherous" attacks:

<QUOTE>"The army and police will avenge our martyrs and
return security and stability with force in the coming short
period."<END QUOTE>


Egypt declared a nationwide state of emergency last April when twin suicide bombings on Palm Sunday at two Coptic churches
in two cities north of Cairo killed at least 47
people.

In 2014, al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in northern Sinai
following a suicide bombing that killed
33 soldiers. He said at the time that "the war in Sinai will last for
a long time, as there are a lot of terrorists hiding in the peninsula,
but this new level of attacks has put us in a new level of planning
too in order to combat the terrorism there."

The operation announced on Friday is called "Comprehensive Operation
Sinai 2018." The operation is said to be unprecedented in its scope,
coordination and size, involving thousands of troops. According to
the army's announcement:

<QUOTE>"[This] morning the law enforcement forces began to
implement the Comprehensive confrontation plan of terrorist and
criminal elements and organizations in North and Central Sinai and
other areas of the Delta of Egypt and the Western Desert
linebacker. [The objectives are] clearing areas where there are
terrorist hotbeds, and to fortify Egyptian society from the evils
of terrorism and extremism in parallel with other crimes affecting
security and internal stability. ...

As part of ongoing law enforcement efforts, elements of the Air
Force have targeted some of the hotspots, dens, weapons and
ammunition depots used by terrorist elements as a base for
targeting law enforcement forces and civilian targets in Northern
and Central Sinai."<END QUOTE>


The timing of the operation is probably related to Egypt's 2018
presidential election, in which el-Sisi is running for reelection.
The election will be held on March 26-28. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Egypt Today

****
**** Multiple reports indicate that Egypt and Israel are cooperating in Sinai
****


For several years, there have been reports that Egypt and Israel have
been cooperating in Egypt's Sinai region. These reports were not
confirmed, and some readers criticized me for mentioning them at all.
Nonetheless, I always believed
that they were true, because they made sense. Terrorists in Northern
Sinai were killing Egyptians, and they were also shooting missiles
across the border into Israeli towns. It seemed logical that the two
countries would cooperate military to destroy their common enemy.

Now, in the last two weeks, there have been a flurry of new reports
about this. Once again, the reports have not been officially
confirmed, but they're now widely believed.

Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. The treaty included
the provisions that neither Israel nor Egypt can mass military forces
or take military actions in Northern Sinai.

Several years ago, Israel and Egypt announced that Israel was waiving
the restriction on Egypt's military in Sinai, so that Egypt's army
could fight the jihadist militias. However, the possibility of
Israeli airstrikes into Sinai is clearly forbidden by the treaty, and
if permitted by Egypt would be a very controversial issue in the Arab
world, and could expose Egypt to criticism from its Arab allies.

Last week, the NY Times reported the following:

<QUOTE>"For more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones,
helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign,
conducting more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt, frequently more
than once a week — and all with the approval of President Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi."<END QUOTE>


The report has been dubbed "fake news" by some Arab media, but there
seems to be little doubt that it's true. BBC and
Middle East Eye and VOA and Jerusalem Post

Related Stories


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi,
North Sinai, Al-Rawda,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Bedouins, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai

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John J. Xenakis
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