02-16-2018, 11:32 PM
*** 17-Feb-18 World View -- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
****
![[Image: g180216b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180216b.jpg)
Massive protests in Ethiopia's Oromia region pushed prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign (Reuters)
Ethiopians on Thursday were shocked and surprised when the country's
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his letter of
resignation, after being in office since 2012. In a televised address
he said:
<QUOTE>"Unrest and a political crisis have led to the loss of
lives and displacement of many. I see my resignation as vital in
the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace
and democracy."<END QUOTE>
The unrest and political crisis he's referring to is anti-government
protests by millions of people, especially among the marginalized
Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and
among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.
Since 1991, the government has been largely controlled by the ethnic
Tigrayans, who are a market and government dominant minority,
comprising only 6% of the population. Hailemariam Desalegn was a
member of the tiny Wollayta ethnic group, party of the Tigrayan ruling
coalition.
Hailemariam's resignation was apparently an attempt to calm the
protests. But as it failed to do so, the Council of Ministers
declared a state of emergency that "would be instrumental in thwarting
ethnic-based conflicts in the country and safeguarding the
constitutional order."
The details of the state of emergency were not revealed, except
to say that it would be similar to the last state of emergency,
which began in October 2016, and ended only a few months ago
in August 2017. According to Human Rights Watch's description
of the last state of emergency:
<QUOTE>"The government’s emergency powers brought mass
detentions, politically motivated criminal charges, and numerous
restrictions on people’s movement and communication. While the end
is welcome news, thousands remain in detention without charge,
none of the protesters’ underlying grievances have been addressed,
and politically motivated trials of key opposition leaders,
artists, journalists, and others continue."<END QUOTE>
There are concerns that the new state of emergency will only repeat
the abuses of the last one. Ethiopian News Agency and Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Bloomberg and Reuters and Addis Standard and Reuters
****
**** Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
****
What we're seeing here is a variation of a pattern that I've described
repeatedly in several countries. This pattern occurs in the aftermath
of a generational crisis war when, rather than being an external war
with another country, the war is a civil war within the country
between tribes and ethnic groups. Such a war is generally between two
tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors for decades, who
intermarried, and whose children played together, but then suddenly
they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes, murders,
torture, mutilations and massacres on their former neighbors,
including women and children.
That kind of war traumatizes the both the winners and the losers. The
new country leader, usually from the winning tribe, is someone who had
directed or approved these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his
mind considers them to have been completely justified. The civil war
always ends with some sort of agreement that all the warring ethnic
groups will suddenly love one another live together in peace and
harmony. But in practice, in the decades that follow, the losing
tribe is marginalized, and in the following generational Awakening
era, begins to protest. The country leader believes that a new civil
war is beginning, and returns to the atrocities of the civil war in
order to prevent a new war from occurring. Examples that I've
reported on include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa,
Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.
Ethiopia's last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the
Marxist Derg dictatorship was overthrown. A Tigrayan war leader,
Meles Zenawi, was in power until his death in 2012. Although the
Tigrayans comprise only 6% of the population, the Tigrayan governing
coalition increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the
Oromo ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the
Amhara ethnic group (27%).
In 2012, Hailemariam Dessalegn, from a small ethnic group (Wollayta)
became prime minister. It was hoped that Hailemariam would institute
reforms that would improve the lives of the Oromos and the Amharas,
but Hailemariam was still part of the Tigrayan governing coaliation,
and followed the same policies. The reforms that had been promised
were not implemented, and the situation was made worse by a
severe drought.
There were massive anti-government protests by the Oromos and the
Amharas, resulting in a brutal state of emergency that ran from
October 2016 to August 2017. With minor changes, this is exactly the
pattern that I've repeatedly described in the other countries listed
above.
After the state of emergency ended in August 2017, nothing had
changed. Reforms that had been promised did not occur. Once again,
there were massive protests by the Oromos and Amharas. In an attempt
to quall the protests last month, the government announced the
release of hundreds of political prisoners from the last state of
emergency, and promised further reforms.
Those measures did not reduce the protests, and Hailemariam resigned
on Thursday, saying, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
Apparently Hailemariam was no longer willing to play the role of
useful idiot and serve as cover for the same Tigrayan policies that
had been in place since 1991.
Now Ethiopia is at a new tipping point. A new prime minister will
have to be chosen. Surprisingly, some analysts are saying that the
leading candidate for prime minister is articulate, charismatic and
confident 47-year-old Lemma Megersa, from the Oromo ethnic group.
Once again, hopes are rising that needed reforms could finally be
implemented, if an Oromo became prime minister.
Such hopes are probably misplaced. Lemma may be an Oromo, but he's
also been part of the official "establishment" for his entire
political career since the 1990s, and even if he's chosen as PM, it's
unlikely that he'll be able to effect any real changes. Whatever
generational forces have brought about the current set of policies,
those generational forces will not change because of one person
becoming prime minister. Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Africa Report and Al Jazeera and Ethiopian Treasures
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Meles Zenawi, Lemma Megersa,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Wollayta
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
- Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
****
**** Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
****
Massive protests in Ethiopia's Oromia region pushed prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign (Reuters)
Ethiopians on Thursday were shocked and surprised when the country's
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his letter of
resignation, after being in office since 2012. In a televised address
he said:
<QUOTE>"Unrest and a political crisis have led to the loss of
lives and displacement of many. I see my resignation as vital in
the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace
and democracy."<END QUOTE>
The unrest and political crisis he's referring to is anti-government
protests by millions of people, especially among the marginalized
Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and
among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.
Since 1991, the government has been largely controlled by the ethnic
Tigrayans, who are a market and government dominant minority,
comprising only 6% of the population. Hailemariam Desalegn was a
member of the tiny Wollayta ethnic group, party of the Tigrayan ruling
coalition.
Hailemariam's resignation was apparently an attempt to calm the
protests. But as it failed to do so, the Council of Ministers
declared a state of emergency that "would be instrumental in thwarting
ethnic-based conflicts in the country and safeguarding the
constitutional order."
The details of the state of emergency were not revealed, except
to say that it would be similar to the last state of emergency,
which began in October 2016, and ended only a few months ago
in August 2017. According to Human Rights Watch's description
of the last state of emergency:
<QUOTE>"The government’s emergency powers brought mass
detentions, politically motivated criminal charges, and numerous
restrictions on people’s movement and communication. While the end
is welcome news, thousands remain in detention without charge,
none of the protesters’ underlying grievances have been addressed,
and politically motivated trials of key opposition leaders,
artists, journalists, and others continue."<END QUOTE>
There are concerns that the new state of emergency will only repeat
the abuses of the last one. Ethiopian News Agency and Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Bloomberg and Reuters and Addis Standard and Reuters
****
**** Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
****
What we're seeing here is a variation of a pattern that I've described
repeatedly in several countries. This pattern occurs in the aftermath
of a generational crisis war when, rather than being an external war
with another country, the war is a civil war within the country
between tribes and ethnic groups. Such a war is generally between two
tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors for decades, who
intermarried, and whose children played together, but then suddenly
they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes, murders,
torture, mutilations and massacres on their former neighbors,
including women and children.
That kind of war traumatizes the both the winners and the losers. The
new country leader, usually from the winning tribe, is someone who had
directed or approved these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his
mind considers them to have been completely justified. The civil war
always ends with some sort of agreement that all the warring ethnic
groups will suddenly love one another live together in peace and
harmony. But in practice, in the decades that follow, the losing
tribe is marginalized, and in the following generational Awakening
era, begins to protest. The country leader believes that a new civil
war is beginning, and returns to the atrocities of the civil war in
order to prevent a new war from occurring. Examples that I've
reported on include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa,
Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.
Ethiopia's last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the
Marxist Derg dictatorship was overthrown. A Tigrayan war leader,
Meles Zenawi, was in power until his death in 2012. Although the
Tigrayans comprise only 6% of the population, the Tigrayan governing
coalition increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the
Oromo ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the
Amhara ethnic group (27%).
In 2012, Hailemariam Dessalegn, from a small ethnic group (Wollayta)
became prime minister. It was hoped that Hailemariam would institute
reforms that would improve the lives of the Oromos and the Amharas,
but Hailemariam was still part of the Tigrayan governing coaliation,
and followed the same policies. The reforms that had been promised
were not implemented, and the situation was made worse by a
severe drought.
There were massive anti-government protests by the Oromos and the
Amharas, resulting in a brutal state of emergency that ran from
October 2016 to August 2017. With minor changes, this is exactly the
pattern that I've repeatedly described in the other countries listed
above.
After the state of emergency ended in August 2017, nothing had
changed. Reforms that had been promised did not occur. Once again,
there were massive protests by the Oromos and Amharas. In an attempt
to quall the protests last month, the government announced the
release of hundreds of political prisoners from the last state of
emergency, and promised further reforms.
Those measures did not reduce the protests, and Hailemariam resigned
on Thursday, saying, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
Apparently Hailemariam was no longer willing to play the role of
useful idiot and serve as cover for the same Tigrayan policies that
had been in place since 1991.
Now Ethiopia is at a new tipping point. A new prime minister will
have to be chosen. Surprisingly, some analysts are saying that the
leading candidate for prime minister is articulate, charismatic and
confident 47-year-old Lemma Megersa, from the Oromo ethnic group.
Once again, hopes are rising that needed reforms could finally be
implemented, if an Oromo became prime minister.
Such hopes are probably misplaced. Lemma may be an Oromo, but he's
also been part of the official "establishment" for his entire
political career since the 1990s, and even if he's chosen as PM, it's
unlikely that he'll be able to effect any real changes. Whatever
generational forces have brought about the current set of policies,
those generational forces will not change because of one person
becoming prime minister. Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Africa Report and Al Jazeera and Ethiopian Treasures
Related Articles
- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
- Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
- Egypt accused of 'dirty deal' to sabotage an Ethiopian dam project (05-Feb-2017)
- Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
- Death of Ethiopia's prime minister could affect Mideast security (22-Aug-2012)
- Ethiopians crush Islamists in Somalia, forcing retreat to Kenya (02-Jan-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Meles Zenawi, Lemma Megersa,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Wollayta
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
