02-19-2018, 11:15 PM
*** 20-Feb-18 World View -- Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
****
![[Image: g180219b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180219b.jpg)
A Kurdish woman at an anti-Turkish rally near Afrin in norther Syria (AFP)
On January 20, Turkey began the ironically named military Operation
Olive Branch to take control of Syria's northern city of Afrin from
the Kurdish militias, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), though it's
never entirely clear what "take control" means.
Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated
large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has
conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's
government for thirty years. The Kurds have set as a goal the
creation of an independent state of Rojava along Syria's northern
border with Turkey. Turkey considers that objective to be an
existential threat.
When Operation Olive Branch began on January 20, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised the Turkish people that the operation
would be finished within a week, and that the military operation would
move east to the city of Manbij. Now it's been a month, and it
doesn't appear that the operation is close to completion.
Turkish troops are backed by an estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in
the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while the YPG is estimated to have about
8,000 to 10,000 fighters in Afrin. Estimates are the 32 Turkish
soldiers, 43 FSA militants and 1,551 YPG militants have been killed so
far.
So there's no question but that the YPG forces are being
battered. However, Afrin is a town of 400,000 to 500,000 people.
So in my mind, I'm making comparisons to some of the previous battles.
East Aleppo had a population of 275,000, only about 1,000 of whom were
in the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS). The army and air
force of the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian
warplanes and Hezbollah troops, used missiles, barrel bombs laced with
chlorine gas, and other weapons to "take control" of Aleppo. But it
took them about six months, and they practically destroyed the entire
city to do it.
In Eastern Ghouta there are 400,000 people, and al-Assad's regime,
backed by the Russians, is battering the city with missiles, Sarin gas
and barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas. That battle has been going
on for several months, and appears nowhere near ended. It will be a
long time before al-Assad "takes control" of eastern Ghouta.
So now the Turks are attacking Afrin, with 400,000-500,000 people.
Russia controls the airspace above Afrin, and so the power of Turkey's
warplanes is being limited, according to reports. Furthermore, as far
as is known, the Turks aren't using Sarin gas and chlorine gas as
Bashar al-Assad does regularly.
So I'm not a military expert, but doing these comparisons says to me
that Turkey is going to be bogged down in Afrin for a long time.
VOA and Washington Post and Xinhua
and Kurdistan 24
****
**** Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
****
![[Image: g180219c.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180219c.gif)
Map of Syria regions controlled by government, Kurds and rebels (France 24)
On Sunday, a senior YPG official said that the YPG had reached a deal
for the Syrian army to enter Afrin and that it could be implemented
within two days.
On Monday, Bashar al-Assad's Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) posted
the following:
<QUOTE>"Popular forces to arrive in Afrin within hours to
support locals against Turkish aggression
SANA’s reporter in Aleppo said on Monday that popular forces are
to arrive in Afrin area soon to support locals in facing the
aggression launched by the Turkish regime on the area since
January 20th.
The reporter said that the arrival of popular forces will
strengthen the locals’ resilience and resistance against the
Turkish aggression which targets infrastructure, public and
private properties, and economic and services
establishments."<END QUOTE>
This report has been widely referenced in the international media,
usually with the interpretation that Syria's army will soon be
fighting Turkey's army in Afrin.
However, what's going on is far from clear. Unlike the YPG statement,
the SANA statement doesn't mention Syria's army. It mentions "popular
forces" from Aleppo. This could mean Hezbollah forces or it could
mean mercenary soldiers that Iran has been bringing in from
Afghanistan.
According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu:
<QUOTE>"It's important what the regime will do when it enters
[Afrin]. If the regime plans to enter to fight PKK/YPG, then no
problem. But if the regime enters to protect the YPG, then no one
can stop Turkey or the Turkish forces."<END QUOTE>
There have been rumors for a few days that the al-Assad regime and the
Kurds were reaching an agreement to jointly oppose the Turkish forces
in Afrin. Ironically, Turkey and the al-Assad regime have a common
interest -- neither of them wants the YPG to control Afrin. Turkey
wants the FSA to control Afrin, and al-Assad wants his regime to
control Afrin, but neither of them wants the Kurds to control Afrin.
So there's really no common interest between Syria and the YPG. The
Kurds want to continue controlling Afrin, and just want Syria's help
in expelling Turkey. The Syrian want to expel Turkey, but then take
control of Afrin. According to one analyst:
<QUOTE>"The Syrian regime wants complete political
administration in Afrin, a comprehensive deal that includes
security and politics. They want to return to Afrin. The Kurdish
Rojava authorities want the Syrian army on the border [with
Turkey] but they don’t accept [pro-government] forces into
Afrin."<END QUOTE>
So even if a deal is reached between al-Assad and the YPG, and Syria's
"popular forces" enter Afrin, then instead of the YPG and Syria
fighting the Turks, it could end up with the YPG and the Turks
fighting Syria. SANA (Damascus) and France 24 and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria,
Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hezbollah, Mevlut Cavusoglu,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs, chlorine, Sarin gas,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij, Rojava
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
- Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
****
**** Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
****
A Kurdish woman at an anti-Turkish rally near Afrin in norther Syria (AFP)
On January 20, Turkey began the ironically named military Operation
Olive Branch to take control of Syria's northern city of Afrin from
the Kurdish militias, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), though it's
never entirely clear what "take control" means.
Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated
large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has
conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's
government for thirty years. The Kurds have set as a goal the
creation of an independent state of Rojava along Syria's northern
border with Turkey. Turkey considers that objective to be an
existential threat.
When Operation Olive Branch began on January 20, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised the Turkish people that the operation
would be finished within a week, and that the military operation would
move east to the city of Manbij. Now it's been a month, and it
doesn't appear that the operation is close to completion.
Turkish troops are backed by an estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in
the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while the YPG is estimated to have about
8,000 to 10,000 fighters in Afrin. Estimates are the 32 Turkish
soldiers, 43 FSA militants and 1,551 YPG militants have been killed so
far.
So there's no question but that the YPG forces are being
battered. However, Afrin is a town of 400,000 to 500,000 people.
So in my mind, I'm making comparisons to some of the previous battles.
East Aleppo had a population of 275,000, only about 1,000 of whom were
in the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS). The army and air
force of the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian
warplanes and Hezbollah troops, used missiles, barrel bombs laced with
chlorine gas, and other weapons to "take control" of Aleppo. But it
took them about six months, and they practically destroyed the entire
city to do it.
In Eastern Ghouta there are 400,000 people, and al-Assad's regime,
backed by the Russians, is battering the city with missiles, Sarin gas
and barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas. That battle has been going
on for several months, and appears nowhere near ended. It will be a
long time before al-Assad "takes control" of eastern Ghouta.
So now the Turks are attacking Afrin, with 400,000-500,000 people.
Russia controls the airspace above Afrin, and so the power of Turkey's
warplanes is being limited, according to reports. Furthermore, as far
as is known, the Turks aren't using Sarin gas and chlorine gas as
Bashar al-Assad does regularly.
So I'm not a military expert, but doing these comparisons says to me
that Turkey is going to be bogged down in Afrin for a long time.
VOA and Washington Post and Xinhua
and Kurdistan 24
****
**** Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
****
Map of Syria regions controlled by government, Kurds and rebels (France 24)
On Sunday, a senior YPG official said that the YPG had reached a deal
for the Syrian army to enter Afrin and that it could be implemented
within two days.
On Monday, Bashar al-Assad's Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) posted
the following:
<QUOTE>"Popular forces to arrive in Afrin within hours to
support locals against Turkish aggression
SANA’s reporter in Aleppo said on Monday that popular forces are
to arrive in Afrin area soon to support locals in facing the
aggression launched by the Turkish regime on the area since
January 20th.
The reporter said that the arrival of popular forces will
strengthen the locals’ resilience and resistance against the
Turkish aggression which targets infrastructure, public and
private properties, and economic and services
establishments."<END QUOTE>
This report has been widely referenced in the international media,
usually with the interpretation that Syria's army will soon be
fighting Turkey's army in Afrin.
However, what's going on is far from clear. Unlike the YPG statement,
the SANA statement doesn't mention Syria's army. It mentions "popular
forces" from Aleppo. This could mean Hezbollah forces or it could
mean mercenary soldiers that Iran has been bringing in from
Afghanistan.
According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu:
<QUOTE>"It's important what the regime will do when it enters
[Afrin]. If the regime plans to enter to fight PKK/YPG, then no
problem. But if the regime enters to protect the YPG, then no one
can stop Turkey or the Turkish forces."<END QUOTE>
There have been rumors for a few days that the al-Assad regime and the
Kurds were reaching an agreement to jointly oppose the Turkish forces
in Afrin. Ironically, Turkey and the al-Assad regime have a common
interest -- neither of them wants the YPG to control Afrin. Turkey
wants the FSA to control Afrin, and al-Assad wants his regime to
control Afrin, but neither of them wants the Kurds to control Afrin.
So there's really no common interest between Syria and the YPG. The
Kurds want to continue controlling Afrin, and just want Syria's help
in expelling Turkey. The Syrian want to expel Turkey, but then take
control of Afrin. According to one analyst:
<QUOTE>"The Syrian regime wants complete political
administration in Afrin, a comprehensive deal that includes
security and politics. They want to return to Afrin. The Kurdish
Rojava authorities want the Syrian army on the border [with
Turkey] but they don’t accept [pro-government] forces into
Afrin."<END QUOTE>
So even if a deal is reached between al-Assad and the YPG, and Syria's
"popular forces" enter Afrin, then instead of the YPG and Syria
fighting the Turks, it could end up with the YPG and the Turks
fighting Syria. SANA (Damascus) and France 24 and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters
Related Articles
- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
- Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled (31-Jan-2018)
- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' (21-Jan-2018)
- Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria,
Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hezbollah, Mevlut Cavusoglu,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs, chlorine, Sarin gas,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij, Rojava
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
