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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Feb-18 World View -- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • 38North reports that North Korea continues nuclear weapons development
  • American politicians debate a 'bloody nose attack' on North Korea

****
**** 38North reports that North Korea continues nuclear weapons development
****


[Image: g180211b.jpg]
Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong speaks with South Korea's president Moon Jae-in during a Seoul theatre performance two weeks ago. News reports now indicate that Kim Yo-jong was pregnant with her second child. (Yonhap)

Based on analysis of commercial satellite imagery of North Korea's
Yongbyon nuclear facility, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins
University is reporting on its 38North web site that North Korea has
continued development of nuclear weapons capabilities, including
"steady progress" on its Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). The
ELWR development seems to be nearly complete and "nearing operational
status."

It's widely believed that when North Korea launched its "charm
offensive" and offered to participate in the Winter Olympics games
being held in Seoul, South Korea, at the present time, the purpose
was to gain time to continue development of nuclear weapons and
long-range ballistic missiles. In particular, the North demanded that
the US and South Korea postpone the planned joint military drills that
were to begin in late January.

While the continued development of ELWR could hardly be a surprise to
anyone, it does serve to contradict the Pollyannaish views of some
politicians that the Olympics Games détente might mean an end to the
North Korea crisis.

The US and South Korea have both confirmed that they will go ahead
with the postponed joint military drills. The drills will be
postponed until after the end of the Paralympics games, which run from
March 8 to March 18. The start date of the drills will be announced
between March 18 and April 1, according to South Korea's defense
minister. 38 North and Korea Herald
and Yonhap (Seoul) and AFP and Fox News and Newsweek

****
**** American politicians debate a 'bloody nose attack' on North Korea
****


North Korea's charm offensive and attendance at the Olympics games has
postponed the crisis for a while, but the core logic driving North
Korean policy has not changed:
  • North Korea has been striving for over 25 years to create a
    nuclear weapon and ballistic missile that can target the United
    States.

  • North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un said on January 1 that
    this goal had already been achieved, and that North Korea would
    forever be safe from US attack. This claim is believed to be an
    exaggeration, but it's also believed that the goal will be achieved
    soon, within a few weeks or months.

  • Numerous US officials, including president Donald Trump, have said
    that North Korea will absolutely, positively not have the capability
    to strike the United States with a nuclear weapon.

  • Kim Jong-un has said that the North will manufacture an arsenal of
    nuclear ballistic missiles targeting the United States. It's also
    clear that the North would sell this technology to anyone who wishes
    to buy it.

This logic has led to discussion of a "bloody nose attack." This
would be some kind of military attack that would partially destroy
North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development,
without attacking the Kim Jong-un regime itself.

A number of politicians have said that a bloody nose attack is
impossible, because it would invite massive retaliation against South
Korea's capital city Seoul.

Republican Senator James Risch said that lawmakers had been told "by
administration people, about as high up as it gets, that there is no
such thing as a ‘bloody nose strategy.'"

Risch added that Trump has been very clear on denying North Korea from
obtaining the ability to strike the US, and that "anyone who doubts
the president’s commitment to see that doesn’t happen, does so really
at their own peril."

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday Risch said:

<QUOTE>"If this thing starts, it is going to be probably one
of the worst catastrophic events in the history of our
civilization, but it is going to be very, very brief. The end of
it is going to see mass casualties, the likes of which the planet
has never seen. It would be biblical proportion."<END QUOTE>


That's very dramatic, and it may well be true, but logic points in the
opposite direction. The North would just have to accept a bloody nose
attack, assuming that one is even possible, because retaliation would
mean the death of Kim Jong-un and his entire government.

Still, Risch's comments appear to be fundamentally self-contradictory.
Risch says that Trump will prevent North Korea from being able to
strike the US, as many other American politicians have also said, but
Risch also says that there will be no military strike. So what's
left?

New reports from unnamed intelligence source indicate that the "bloody
nose attack" will be a cyber attack. A cyber assault could cripple
Pyongyang's online communications and ability to control its military,
causing huge disruption but avoiding the loss of life.

According to the reports, the U.S. government for the past six months
has covertly begun laying the groundwork for possible cyberattacks on
North Korea in countries including South Korea and Japan. This process
involves installing fiber cables as bridges into the region and
setting up remote bases and listening posts, where hackers may attempt
to gain access to a North Korean internet that’s largely walled off
from external connections.

I don't know how much of this I believe, because the North Koreans
could use redundant networks and firewalls to block such attacks. In
my opinion, the most likely step in the next few months will be a US
conventional military attack on the North's facilities, and there will
be only minor retaliation from the North, if any. I could be wrong
about either of those things, of course, but that's my opinion at this time.
Telegraph (London) and Foreign Policy and Reuters

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea,
Experimental Light Water Reactor, ELWR,
US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, 38North,
James Risch

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21-Feb-18 World View -- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclea - by John J. Xenakis - 02-20-2018, 11:28 PM
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