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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 28-Feb-18 World View -- Russia's 'humanitarian pause' in Syria turns into farce on first day

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Russia's 'humanitarian pause' in Syria turns into farce on first day
  • Report: North Korea is selling chemical weapons supplies to Syria
  • Areas of control in Syria and Iraq

****
**** Russia's 'humanitarian pause' in Syria turns into farce on first day
****


[Image: g180227b.jpg]
Smoke rising from Eastern Ghouta after air strikes by Syrian and Russian warplanes during the ceasefire on Monday (AFP)

We keep seeing the same horrible script played out over and over.
What we've seen in the last few days is similar to what we've seen
probably a dozen or so times in the UN Security Council in the last
few years:
  • Russian and Syrian government warplanes sharply increased the
    frequency of bombing civilian targets in eastern Ghouta, specifically
    targeting hospitals and food convoys.

  • The Syrian government has been freely using chemical weapons,
    including Sarin gas and chlorine gas. They don't even bother to try
    to hide it anymore.

  • UN officials, including Secretary-General António Guterres and US
    ambassador Nicki Haley, made the usual scripted remarks: "Condemn
    ... war crimes ... outrageous ... not acceptable ... must stop
    ... immediate ceasefire ... blah, blah, blah." It's always the same
    script.

  • The members of the Security Council spent two weeks saying stupid
    things to one another, supposedly "negotiating" over a ceasefire. The
    US proposes a ceasefire, and the Russians continue to sabotage the
    "negotiations" because they really want to go on killing people, not
    have a ceasefire.

  • On Saturday they agreed to a farcical ceasefire resolution that
    the Russians had watered down enough to be meaningless. It called for
    a 30-day ceasefire, to start at some time in the future, but the
    Russians and Syrian government would still be allowed airstrikes on
    jihadists and terrorists in east Ghouta, which means everyone, since
    Bashar al-Assad considers all of them to be jihadists and
    terrorists.

  • On Sunday, since the Russians want to prove that they're in
    charge, and they now control things in the Mideast, the Russians
    simply blew off the 30-day ceasefire resolution that they had agreed
    to. Instead, they announced that there would be a 5-hour ceasefire on
    Monday, from 9 am to 2 pm.

  • There was no ceasefire on Monday. The bombing and airstrikes and
    use of chlorine gas continued as before.

  • There was supposed to be a "humanitarian corridor" which a convoy
    could use to deliver food and medicines, and perform medical
    evacuations. But the fighting continued and the corridor was not safe
    enough for the humanitarian convoy.

  • It was supposed to be possible for civilians to flee East Ghouta
    during the 5-hour ceasefire, and reach safety. However, apparently no
    one left because no one trusted the Syrian government or the Russians
    to feel safe.

With regard to the last point, I've heard several interviews with
civilians in Ghouta about whether they were going to take advantage of
the opportunity to leave Ghouta. They all said pretty much the same
thing, that they don't feel safe trying to do so.

This is not surprising, since they're all pretty much aware of what
happened in late 2016 in Aleppo, and two of them actually mentioned
that. Allowing civilians to leave is part of the Syrian-Russian
strategy. Civilians were allowed to leave Aleppo, and travel to
Idlib, where they were killed en masse by Syrian and Russian
airstrikes.

In fact, I've described this strategy several times before. It's
called the "Grozny model," named after the capital city of Chechnya
and the battle of Grozny. The Russians created a "safe zone" to allow
civilians to escape the Grozny siege, and then killed them as they
were escaping.

So in the end, this "ceasefire" in east Ghouta is not a ceasefire at
all, and was never intended by the Russians to be a ceasefire.
Instead, it provides political cover for an intensification of the war
crimes against civilians. There are 400,000 people living in Ghouta,
mostly women and children. There are at most 1,000 fighters who might
be called "jihadists and terrorists." Russia and Syria are going to
use the 1,000 fighters as a reason to kill as many of the 400,000
civilians as they can.

An analogy in America would be if an American city contained some
people from the Black Panthers or Black Lives Matter, then it would be
OK, using the Syrian-Russian strategy, for the army and air force to
exterminate hundreds of thousands of people in the black neighborhoods
in that city, or maybe to permit some of them to escape, and then
slaughter them as they leave.

In my lifetime, I've heard the words "Never again!" applied to the
Nazi Holocaust. And I've heard the words "Never again!" applied to
the Srebrenica genocide. And I've heard the words "Never again!"
applied to the Rwanda genocide. But now it's happening again, just
like it's happened before, but instead of stopping the genocide, the
United States has become a tool to support the genocide, by having
diplomats run around the Security Council and pass farcical ceasefire
resolutions that provide cover for the genocide. It's truly
astonishing. Sky News and NBC News and Reuters

****
**** Report: North Korea is selling chemical weapons supplies to Syria
****


According to an unreleased United Nations report, Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad is receiving supplies from North Korea for supplies to
be used to manufacture chemical weapons. These supplies include
acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers.

We can assume that North Korea is selling this technology to Syria to
make money and get around UN sanctions. We can also assume that
either Iran or Russia is providing the money to Bashar al-Assad. Who
knows? Maybe it's some of the money that Iran has gained from the
removal of sanctions after signing the nuclear deal.

At any rate, we can be pretty certain that if the North Korea is able
to complete its development of nuclear weapons and long-range
ballistic missiles, then it will sell that technology to any rogue
state willing to pay for it. CNN and Axios

Related Articles:

****
**** Areas of control in Syria and Iraq
****


[Image: g180227c.jpg]
Map of Syria and Iraq showing areas of control (Deutsche Welle)

I wanted to reference this map because it's one of the best that I've
seen, and easiest to understand what's going on.

There are several things that one can see from the map:
  • Eastern Ghouta is a small area near Damascus, and it's going
    to take months of massive slaughter to bring it under control. There
    are other larger regions under opposition control.

  • Idlib province, with 2.6 million civilians, could take many years
    to bring "under control," and will require one of the greatest
    genocides in world history.

  • There are still substantial regions controlled by the so-called
    Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in both Syria and Iraq.
    Right now, it's the American backed Kurdish militias that are fighting
    ISIS, and without them, ISIS could rise again and regain its lost
    territory.

  • Kurds are in control the entire region of Iraq and Syria along the
    border with Turkey, except for one tiny region near Afrin that's
    controlled by the Turkey-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). The Kurds
    would like to make this entire region into an independent Kurdish
    state called Rojava. This would be an existential threat to Turkey,
    since a Kurdish-based terror group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
    has been conducting an insurgency in Turkey for three decades,
    including a number of violent terrorist attacks. This is why Turkey
    is determined not to give up this little region controlled by the
    FSA.

As I've described before,
there at
least 14 armies and militias operating in Syria now: Syria, Russia,
Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Free Syrian Army (FSA), Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF), People’s Protection Units (YPG), Saudi Arabia, Iraq,
Israel, United States, al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

This is a country in complete chaos, with a war criminal and
sociopathic genocidal leader, Bashar al-Assad, and with a proxy war
that's nowhere near ending.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.
Deutsche Welle

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ghouta, Russia, Bashar al-Assad,
António Guterres, Nikki Haley, Aleppo. Grozny Model, Chechnya,
North Korea, Turkey,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs, chlorine, Sarin gas,
Kurds, People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij, Rojava,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK

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28-Feb-18 World View -- Russia's 'humanitarian pause' in Syria turns into farce on fi - by John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2018, 11:28 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
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