03-09-2018, 11:48 PM
*** 10-Mar-18 World View -- The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kenya's bitter rivals, Kenyatta and Odinga, become 'brothers' as Tillerson arrives
****
![[Image: g180309b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180309b.jpg)
Uhuru Kenyatta (L) and Raila Odinga shake hands, smile, and call each other 'my brother.' Odinga particularly seems to me to be gritting his teeth, as if he doesn't want to be there. (Standard Media)
In a show of high theatre on Friday, Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta,
a leader of the dominant Kikuyu tribe, met with the opposition leader,
Raila Odinga, who is also a leader of the Luo tribe. They surprised
everyone by shaking hands at a press conference, and calling each
other "my brother."
Gone was the acrimony of last year's election, which had to be rerun
because Odinga accused Kenyatta of rigging the election, with violence
that led to dozens of deaths. Gone was the vitriol and post-election
violence of 2008, when Odinga lost to another Kikuyu, and the two
tribes had weeks of bloody violence resulting in thousands of deaths.
At Friday's love-fest, Odinga said:
<QUOTE>"The time has come for us to confront and resolve our
differences. As we fight ostensibly to save ourselves from each
other, the reality is, we need to save our children from
ourselves."<END QUOTE>
Kenyatta said:
<QUOTE>"We had extensive discussions on matters Kenya and we
had an agreement that the country is bigger than any of us. We
have a responsibility as leaders to discuss our differences and
what ails our country so that we get solutions.
Elections come and go, but Kenya remains. Our future as a country
cannot be dictated by elections.
Together we want to build a united, harmonious nation where nobody
feels left behind. We want to formulate a new beginning and have a
country where we can differ in political alignments but united in
matters Kenya.
We have moved from year to year, election to election, never
pausing to deal with the challenges that our diversity was always
going to pose to our efforts to create a prosperous and united
nation. Consequently, the ties that bind us are today under the
severest stress."<END QUOTE>
Kenyatta and Odinga have previously said that they would never talk to
each other and shake hands, and they both refused to do so at a
funeral earlier this year. So what changed on Friday?
Late Friday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson began a three-day
visit to Kenya. Tillerson has been very critical of last year's
election in Kenya, and has been calling for a reconciliation between
the two leaders.
Kenya is one of the biggest recipients of economic aid from the US.
Last year, the country received $1.1 billion in economic aid, and aid
for other programs such as HIV and Aids management, energy and
agriculture. The US has also provided hundreds of millions more,
related to the fight against terrorism. Barack Obama, whose father
was from the Luo tribe, had also worked hard to promote reconciliation
in Kenya when he was president.
Tillerson seemed very pleased to see Kenyatta and Odinga shake hands:
<QUOTE>"This is a very positive step in our view, and while
we know addressing Kenya's ethnic and political divisions will
take some time and effort, today both of these men showed great
leadership in coming together. All the credit goes to the two
leaders."<END QUOTE>
Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that
climaxed in 1956. At that time, Kenya was a British colony, and the
Mau-Mau rebellion was largely a fight against the colonists, with Luos
and the Kikuyus fighting on the same side. History doesn't repeat
itself, but it rhymes, and so now the Luos and Kikuyus are enemies of
each other. The 2008 violence was not a full-scale war, and it
fizzled quickly. But today, nine years later, a new generational
crisis war is overdue, and with the British colonists long gone, it's
feared that there will be a new full-scale crisis war between the
Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Luo tribes. Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya)
Related Articles
****
**** The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made
****
![[Image: g180309c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180309c.jpg)
North Korea's Army of Beauties (Korea Herald)
There are many questions being discussed in the mainstream media about
the meeting between president Donald Trump and North Korea's president
Kim Jong-un. What are the time and place? Who has the advantage?
Did Kim agree because of Trump's military threats? Did Kim agree
because of the sanctions? Or is the whole thing just a publicity
stunt?
Reports are that Trump immediately accepted the invitation to meet
without preconditions. I thought that this was a good negotiating
ploy, since it's quite possible that Kim expected Trump to demand
major preconditions first, such as the release of Americans being held
captive in North Korea, and some steps taken towards denuclearization.
I thought that Trump's instant acceptance without preconditions would
have been a surprise to Kim, who would then be faced with backing out
of the meeting, or facing a meeting where he'd be lectured to by
Donald Trump.
However, by Friday Trump backed off, and specified that some
preconditions would have to be met, namely some "concrete and
verifiable actions" in the direction of denuclearization. Apparently,
Trump was responding to widespread criticism that he'd given Kim
something (agreeing to a meeting), while getting nothing in return. I
don't agree with that analysis, but it's widely believed.
There's actually one and only one relevant question, and it has to do
with a decision that has undoubtedly already been made by Kim: Has
Kim's government already decided to give up its nuclear weapons and
ballistic missile development?
There are two possibilities:
Now, I'm one of those people who believe that there isn't a snowflake's
chance in hell that Kim is ready to give up nuclear and missile
development.
But there is one scenario where I can imagine that it might happen,
and it's something that I discussed during the Olympics in "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?"
The North sent a huge delegation of hundreds of people to Seoul for
the Olympics game. They included all the athletes, Kim Jong-un's
sister Kim Yo-jong, and the North's "Army of Beauties" cheerleading
squad.
During their visit, the girls in this "Army of Beauties" were
carefully monitored, but they would still have had some opportunity to
compare life in the South versus life in the North. Upon returning
home, they would have told their boyfriends, husbands and fathers how
much better life is in the South, and asked "Why don't we do what the
South is doing?" After that, hundreds or thousands of people in North
Korea's capital Pyongyang might have been asking themselves the same
question.
I realize that this whole scenario sounds fantastical, but it's
happened before, and I personally remember it well. As I described in
the article
referenced above, this
is exactly what happened when Russia's Boris Yeltsin visited the
United States in 1989. He visited a supermarket, and was so affected
by what he saw that he gave up communism. Here's how he explained it
in his autobiography:
<QUOTE>When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds,
thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for
the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the
Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours
has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to
think of it."<END QUOTE>
So very strange things sometimes happen. This scenario is so
far-fetched that I would consider it completely impossible, except for
the fact that I've seen it happen before.
At any rate, Kim's government will already know whether it's decided
to give up its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development, so it
already knows the likely outcome of the meeting with Trump. We
probably won't know for some time to come. Washington Post and Korea Herald (11-Jan)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu,
Raila Odinga, Luo, Rex Tillerson, Barack Obama,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kenya's bitter rivals, Kenyatta and Odinga, become 'brothers' as Tillerson arrives
- The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made
****
**** Kenya's bitter rivals, Kenyatta and Odinga, become 'brothers' as Tillerson arrives
****
Uhuru Kenyatta (L) and Raila Odinga shake hands, smile, and call each other 'my brother.' Odinga particularly seems to me to be gritting his teeth, as if he doesn't want to be there. (Standard Media)
In a show of high theatre on Friday, Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta,
a leader of the dominant Kikuyu tribe, met with the opposition leader,
Raila Odinga, who is also a leader of the Luo tribe. They surprised
everyone by shaking hands at a press conference, and calling each
other "my brother."
Gone was the acrimony of last year's election, which had to be rerun
because Odinga accused Kenyatta of rigging the election, with violence
that led to dozens of deaths. Gone was the vitriol and post-election
violence of 2008, when Odinga lost to another Kikuyu, and the two
tribes had weeks of bloody violence resulting in thousands of deaths.
At Friday's love-fest, Odinga said:
<QUOTE>"The time has come for us to confront and resolve our
differences. As we fight ostensibly to save ourselves from each
other, the reality is, we need to save our children from
ourselves."<END QUOTE>
Kenyatta said:
<QUOTE>"We had extensive discussions on matters Kenya and we
had an agreement that the country is bigger than any of us. We
have a responsibility as leaders to discuss our differences and
what ails our country so that we get solutions.
Elections come and go, but Kenya remains. Our future as a country
cannot be dictated by elections.
Together we want to build a united, harmonious nation where nobody
feels left behind. We want to formulate a new beginning and have a
country where we can differ in political alignments but united in
matters Kenya.
We have moved from year to year, election to election, never
pausing to deal with the challenges that our diversity was always
going to pose to our efforts to create a prosperous and united
nation. Consequently, the ties that bind us are today under the
severest stress."<END QUOTE>
Kenyatta and Odinga have previously said that they would never talk to
each other and shake hands, and they both refused to do so at a
funeral earlier this year. So what changed on Friday?
Late Friday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson began a three-day
visit to Kenya. Tillerson has been very critical of last year's
election in Kenya, and has been calling for a reconciliation between
the two leaders.
Kenya is one of the biggest recipients of economic aid from the US.
Last year, the country received $1.1 billion in economic aid, and aid
for other programs such as HIV and Aids management, energy and
agriculture. The US has also provided hundreds of millions more,
related to the fight against terrorism. Barack Obama, whose father
was from the Luo tribe, had also worked hard to promote reconciliation
in Kenya when he was president.
Tillerson seemed very pleased to see Kenyatta and Odinga shake hands:
<QUOTE>"This is a very positive step in our view, and while
we know addressing Kenya's ethnic and political divisions will
take some time and effort, today both of these men showed great
leadership in coming together. All the credit goes to the two
leaders."<END QUOTE>
Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that
climaxed in 1956. At that time, Kenya was a British colony, and the
Mau-Mau rebellion was largely a fight against the colonists, with Luos
and the Kikuyus fighting on the same side. History doesn't repeat
itself, but it rhymes, and so now the Luos and Kikuyus are enemies of
each other. The 2008 violence was not a full-scale war, and it
fizzled quickly. But today, nine years later, a new generational
crisis war is overdue, and with the British colonists long gone, it's
feared that there will be a new full-scale crisis war between the
Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Luo tribes. Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya)
Related Articles
- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration (04-Feb-2018)
- Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017)
- Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
****
**** The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made
****
North Korea's Army of Beauties (Korea Herald)
There are many questions being discussed in the mainstream media about
the meeting between president Donald Trump and North Korea's president
Kim Jong-un. What are the time and place? Who has the advantage?
Did Kim agree because of Trump's military threats? Did Kim agree
because of the sanctions? Or is the whole thing just a publicity
stunt?
Reports are that Trump immediately accepted the invitation to meet
without preconditions. I thought that this was a good negotiating
ploy, since it's quite possible that Kim expected Trump to demand
major preconditions first, such as the release of Americans being held
captive in North Korea, and some steps taken towards denuclearization.
I thought that Trump's instant acceptance without preconditions would
have been a surprise to Kim, who would then be faced with backing out
of the meeting, or facing a meeting where he'd be lectured to by
Donald Trump.
However, by Friday Trump backed off, and specified that some
preconditions would have to be met, namely some "concrete and
verifiable actions" in the direction of denuclearization. Apparently,
Trump was responding to widespread criticism that he'd given Kim
something (agreeing to a meeting), while getting nothing in return. I
don't agree with that analysis, but it's widely believed.
There's actually one and only one relevant question, and it has to do
with a decision that has undoubtedly already been made by Kim: Has
Kim's government already decided to give up its nuclear weapons and
ballistic missile development?
There are two possibilities:
- Kim has decided NOT to give them up. In that case, the entire
meeting invitation is a publicity stunt, and a maneuver to stall for
time to do further development. That will almost certainly end in
war.
- Kim has already decided to give up nuclear and missile development.
In that case, war will be averted.
Now, I'm one of those people who believe that there isn't a snowflake's
chance in hell that Kim is ready to give up nuclear and missile
development.
But there is one scenario where I can imagine that it might happen,
and it's something that I discussed during the Olympics in "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?"
The North sent a huge delegation of hundreds of people to Seoul for
the Olympics game. They included all the athletes, Kim Jong-un's
sister Kim Yo-jong, and the North's "Army of Beauties" cheerleading
squad.
During their visit, the girls in this "Army of Beauties" were
carefully monitored, but they would still have had some opportunity to
compare life in the South versus life in the North. Upon returning
home, they would have told their boyfriends, husbands and fathers how
much better life is in the South, and asked "Why don't we do what the
South is doing?" After that, hundreds or thousands of people in North
Korea's capital Pyongyang might have been asking themselves the same
question.
I realize that this whole scenario sounds fantastical, but it's
happened before, and I personally remember it well. As I described in
the article
referenced above, this
is exactly what happened when Russia's Boris Yeltsin visited the
United States in 1989. He visited a supermarket, and was so affected
by what he saw that he gave up communism. Here's how he explained it
in his autobiography:
<QUOTE>When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds,
thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for
the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the
Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours
has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to
think of it."<END QUOTE>
So very strange things sometimes happen. This scenario is so
far-fetched that I would consider it completely impossible, except for
the fact that I've seen it happen before.
At any rate, Kim's government will already know whether it's decided
to give up its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development, so it
already knows the likely outcome of the meeting with Trump. We
probably won't know for some time to come. Washington Post and Korea Herald (11-Jan)
Related Articles:
- China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
- North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu,
Raila Odinga, Luo, Rex Tillerson, Barack Obama,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
