03-23-2018, 10:36 PM
*** 24-Mar-18 World View -- Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
****
![[Image: g180323b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180323b.jpg)
US Army General and commander of US forces in Afghanistan John Nicholson (AFP)
During the 1980s, the Soviet Union became embroiled in its own version
of the Vietnam War -- an asymmetric fight against guerrilla forces in
Afghanistan that the Soviets couldn't win. Since the Soviets were
American enemies in those days, US forces aided the side opposing the
Soviets. The people we supported were the ethnic Pashtuns who later
became the Taliban, and their allies, a group of Saudi Wahhabi
jihadists, including Osama bin Laden, who later became al-Qaeda.
For two or three years, there have been consistent reports that the
Russians have been supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan with money
and weapons. The reasons stated for the support are that the Russians
don't want the Americans to have a permanent foothold in Afghanistan
and, by the way, they want to get revenge for helping their opponents
in the 1980s.
Now General John Nicholson, head of the US forces in Afghanistan, says
that the reports are true. According to Nicholson:
<QUOTE>"We’ve had stories written by the Taliban that have
appeared in the media about financial support provided by the
enemy. We’ve had weapons brought to this headquarters and given
to us by Afghan leaders and said, ‘This was given by the Russians
to the Taliban’.
We see a narrative that’s being used that grossly exaggerates the
number of Islamic State group fighters here. This narrative then
is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimize the
actions of Taliban and provide some degree of support to the
Taliban."<END QUOTE>
Nicholson says that by supplying weapons and money to the Taliban, the
Russians are interfering with the attempts to bring peace to
Afghanistan through negotiations and peace talks with the Taliban.
This whole story raises far more questions than it answers.
Apparently the weapons at issue are 1980s vintage, so it's possible
that they made their way into Taliban hands by another path.
The background story has several delusional elements. The Russians
today are blaming the whole 1980s Afghanistan fiasco on the United
States. According to the Russians, they were tricked into entering
the 1980s Afghanistan war by president Jimmy Carter's national
security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski, who died last
year, apparently believed the same thing.
This is completely delusional on the part of both the Russians and
Brzezinski. There's no way that the Soviets committed hundreds of
thousands of troops to a ten-year war in Afghanistan on the basis of a
trick. However, the delusion has been convenient for both parties.
The Russians absolve themselves of the blame for the war by blaming it
on the Americans, and Brzezinski can continue to pat himself on the
back.
And it's true that the US supplied some weapons to the Pashtuns, just
as the Russians had supplied weapons to the North Vietnamese during
the Vietnam war. But supplying some weapons would not have made a
difference in the outcome of either war.
Another part of the delusion is that the Russians and the Taliban
could be allied in any meaningful way. Russia is allied with Iran,
which is allied with the Shia groups that the Taliban keeps trying to
kill. Furthermore, by supplying weapons to jihadists in Afghanistan,
those jihadist could travel to Russia and use the weapons there.
The biggest delusion -- on the part of the American administration --
is that a peace agreement can be reached.
I've described in detail the reasons why a peace agreement is
impossible many times (see "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'"
), but the one-sentence summary of the
reasoning is this: Young Pashtuns are coming of age, and looking for
vengeance against the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that they fought in
the bloody civil war of 1991-96.
However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US
administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with
China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be
valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. CBS News and BBC and Russia Today (29-May-2017)
Related Articles
****
**** US warship sails near China's illegal artificial island in the South China Sea
****
The US Navy on Friday conducted a new "freedom of navigation"
operation in the South China Sea.
The warship USS Mustin traveled within 12 nautical miles of China's
illegal artificial island and military base near Mischief Reef in the
Spratly Islands, and carried out maneuvering operations.
According to Nicole Schwegman, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet:
<QUOTE>"We conduct routine and regular freedom of navigation
operations, as we have done in the past and will continue to do in
the future."<END QUOTE>
As usual, the Chinese were furious and began emitting nonsense.
According to China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying:
<QUOTE>"On March 23, USS Mustin entered the neighboring
waters of relevant islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Qundao
without the permission of the Chinese government. The Chinese navy
has identified and verified the US warship and warned it to leave
in accordance with the law. The relevant act of the US side has
violated the Chinese law and relevant international law, infringed
upon China's sovereignty, undermined peace, security and order of
the relevant waters and put in jeopardy the facilities and
personnel on the Chinese islands, and thus constitutes a serious
political and military provocation.
China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Qundao and its
adjacent waters."<END QUOTE>
The problem we have with both China and Russia these days is that they
lie so often that we have to assume that everything they say is
completely worthless.
This statement claims "indisputable sovereignty." Is Hua Chunying a
complete idiot? Or does she think that the rest of us are so stupid
that we'll believe any nonsense that comes out of her mouth. The
claim of "indisputable sovereignty" is a lie on its face because much
of the world disputes it. The South China Sea are international
waters, as declared by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration in the Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July,
2013. It's China, not the United States, that's violating
international law on a continuing basis. Reuters and China's Foreign Ministry
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Russia, Taliban,
John Nicholson, Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski,
USS Mustin, South China Sea, Mischief Reef, Spratly Islands,
Nicole Schwegman, Hua Chunying,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
- US warship sails near China's illegal artificial island in the South China Sea
****
**** Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
****
US Army General and commander of US forces in Afghanistan John Nicholson (AFP)
During the 1980s, the Soviet Union became embroiled in its own version
of the Vietnam War -- an asymmetric fight against guerrilla forces in
Afghanistan that the Soviets couldn't win. Since the Soviets were
American enemies in those days, US forces aided the side opposing the
Soviets. The people we supported were the ethnic Pashtuns who later
became the Taliban, and their allies, a group of Saudi Wahhabi
jihadists, including Osama bin Laden, who later became al-Qaeda.
For two or three years, there have been consistent reports that the
Russians have been supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan with money
and weapons. The reasons stated for the support are that the Russians
don't want the Americans to have a permanent foothold in Afghanistan
and, by the way, they want to get revenge for helping their opponents
in the 1980s.
Now General John Nicholson, head of the US forces in Afghanistan, says
that the reports are true. According to Nicholson:
<QUOTE>"We’ve had stories written by the Taliban that have
appeared in the media about financial support provided by the
enemy. We’ve had weapons brought to this headquarters and given
to us by Afghan leaders and said, ‘This was given by the Russians
to the Taliban’.
We see a narrative that’s being used that grossly exaggerates the
number of Islamic State group fighters here. This narrative then
is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimize the
actions of Taliban and provide some degree of support to the
Taliban."<END QUOTE>
Nicholson says that by supplying weapons and money to the Taliban, the
Russians are interfering with the attempts to bring peace to
Afghanistan through negotiations and peace talks with the Taliban.
This whole story raises far more questions than it answers.
Apparently the weapons at issue are 1980s vintage, so it's possible
that they made their way into Taliban hands by another path.
The background story has several delusional elements. The Russians
today are blaming the whole 1980s Afghanistan fiasco on the United
States. According to the Russians, they were tricked into entering
the 1980s Afghanistan war by president Jimmy Carter's national
security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski, who died last
year, apparently believed the same thing.
This is completely delusional on the part of both the Russians and
Brzezinski. There's no way that the Soviets committed hundreds of
thousands of troops to a ten-year war in Afghanistan on the basis of a
trick. However, the delusion has been convenient for both parties.
The Russians absolve themselves of the blame for the war by blaming it
on the Americans, and Brzezinski can continue to pat himself on the
back.
And it's true that the US supplied some weapons to the Pashtuns, just
as the Russians had supplied weapons to the North Vietnamese during
the Vietnam war. But supplying some weapons would not have made a
difference in the outcome of either war.
Another part of the delusion is that the Russians and the Taliban
could be allied in any meaningful way. Russia is allied with Iran,
which is allied with the Shia groups that the Taliban keeps trying to
kill. Furthermore, by supplying weapons to jihadists in Afghanistan,
those jihadist could travel to Russia and use the weapons there.
The biggest delusion -- on the part of the American administration --
is that a peace agreement can be reached.
I've described in detail the reasons why a peace agreement is
impossible many times (see "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'"
), but the one-sentence summary of the
reasoning is this: Young Pashtuns are coming of age, and looking for
vengeance against the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that they fought in
the bloody civil war of 1991-96.
However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US
administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with
China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be
valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. CBS News and BBC and Russia Today (29-May-2017)
Related Articles
- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
- Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
****
**** US warship sails near China's illegal artificial island in the South China Sea
****
The US Navy on Friday conducted a new "freedom of navigation"
operation in the South China Sea.
The warship USS Mustin traveled within 12 nautical miles of China's
illegal artificial island and military base near Mischief Reef in the
Spratly Islands, and carried out maneuvering operations.
According to Nicole Schwegman, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet:
<QUOTE>"We conduct routine and regular freedom of navigation
operations, as we have done in the past and will continue to do in
the future."<END QUOTE>
As usual, the Chinese were furious and began emitting nonsense.
According to China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying:
<QUOTE>"On March 23, USS Mustin entered the neighboring
waters of relevant islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Qundao
without the permission of the Chinese government. The Chinese navy
has identified and verified the US warship and warned it to leave
in accordance with the law. The relevant act of the US side has
violated the Chinese law and relevant international law, infringed
upon China's sovereignty, undermined peace, security and order of
the relevant waters and put in jeopardy the facilities and
personnel on the Chinese islands, and thus constitutes a serious
political and military provocation.
China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Qundao and its
adjacent waters."<END QUOTE>
The problem we have with both China and Russia these days is that they
lie so often that we have to assume that everything they say is
completely worthless.
This statement claims "indisputable sovereignty." Is Hua Chunying a
complete idiot? Or does she think that the rest of us are so stupid
that we'll believe any nonsense that comes out of her mouth. The
claim of "indisputable sovereignty" is a lie on its face because much
of the world disputes it. The South China Sea are international
waters, as declared by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration in the Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July,
2013. It's China, not the United States, that's violating
international law on a continuing basis. Reuters and China's Foreign Ministry
Related Articles
- How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
- China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea (21-Jan-2018)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Russia, Taliban,
John Nicholson, Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski,
USS Mustin, South China Sea, Mischief Reef, Spratly Islands,
Nicole Schwegman, Hua Chunying,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
