03-28-2018, 10:39 PM
*** 29-Mar-18 World View -- Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
****
![[Image: g180312b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180312b.jpg)
Early March: Vladimir Putin smirks when a BBC reporter asks him whether Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal
In 2011, massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia spread to Libya,
and by February, the bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and
Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west. This caused a massive
refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of refugees
pouring into Egypt and neighboring countries, and across the
Mediterranean into Europe. That led the Arab League to demand that
the West implement a no-fly zone, and approval by the UN Security
Council. The no-fly zone eventually led to the war in Libya, and the
death of Muammar Gaddafi.
As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN
Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United
States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any
policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)
The way it works is that Russia demands that any military action taken
by the United States or Nato must be approved by the UN Security
Council, giving the Russians an effective veto of the US and Nato
foreign policy. On the other hand, Russia can invade Ukraine, invade
Crimea, annex Crimea, support war crimes by Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
all without getting any UN approval. So Russia has complete military
freedom, while the West is constrained by Russia's UNSC veto. It's
really a remarkable plan, and it's been incredibly successful,
completely crippling the UN, and turning it into a body that provides
cover for international criminals, rather than stopping them.
China has adopted a variation of the same strategy. China has built
artificial islands in the South China Sea, annexing other countries'
regions or blocking access by other countries to their centuries-old
fishing grounds, and has turned those artificial islands into massive
military bases. The United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in
the Hague eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July, 2013, and ruled that all of
China's activities are unambiguously violations of international law.
China's reaction is to say that international law doesn't apply to
them. China has also been using its military to bully other nations
into supporting them. It's as if the KKK lynched 10 black men and
then bullied cops and judges into supporting them.
So Russia and China have made it clear that international law doesn't
apply to them, and they can do anything they want, and they'll kill
anyone who tries to stop them.
Two recent international events, both major and remarkable, have made
it clear that this strategy is no longer working.
The first is the North Korea situation, where the Donald Trump
administration had made military threats that are actually credible.
A lot of people have said publicly that they think that Trump is
crazy, but that's a negotiating strategy that's worked to his
advantage, since both China and North Korea think he's crazy enough to
carry through with his threat. And it's clear that any military
action taken by the Trump administration will not be subject to a
Russian or Chinese veto in the UN Security Council.
****
**** The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal
****
The second remarkable international event is the Western reaction to
the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,
using a
Russia-developed nerve agent Novichok. At this writing, both of the
poison victims are in hospital, and are not expected to survive.
From the beginning, there was little doubt that Russia was
responsible, and that they were sure they would get away with it,
because of Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council. As I
reported in my article, Russia's president Vladimir Putin smirked and
gave a sarcastic answer when a BBC reporter asked about it.
This was followed by a massive disinformation campaign by Russia by
Russian trolls, calling the accusations a "circus show," a "fairy
tale," and a "plot to victimize Russia." On the BBC a couple of days
ago, I heard a Russian official claim that this was the latest in 200
years of Western attacks on Russia.
Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious response to
this:
<QUOTE>"There is something in the kind of smug, sarcastic
response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental
guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time
to glory in it.
There is very little doubt in people’s minds that this is a
signature act by the Russia state – deliberately using novichok, a
nerve agent developed by Russia to punish a Russian defector as
they would see it, and in the run up to Vladimir Putin’s election.
This was a former Russian agent living in this country who had
been singled out already by the Russian state as an object for
revenge and retaliation, and Vladimir Putin has been on the TV
only recently saying that such people deserve to be poisoned, to
choke on their own 30 pieces of silver. This is a way of showing
look at what happens to people who stand up to our
regime."<END QUOTE>
An investigation of the evidence by scientists from Britain and
several other European countries led to the conclusion that Russia,
and probably Putin himself, were responsible for the poisoning.
That much isn't remarkable at all. Putin has had other former agents
poisoned in the past, and has violated international law many times,
and there were the same kinds of investigations, and the same kinds of
disinformation campaigns by Russian trolls. And there was always the
same smirk, because Putin knew that he would get away with it.
What is remarkable this time is that Western nations were united in
backing Britain's prime minister Theresa May in taking action against
Russia. Over 20 countries, including the US, Canada, and several
European Union countries, have expelled Russian diplomats.
Expelling diplomats is not going to do much damage to Putin. The
shocking thing is that all of these Western nations were unified in
condemning Russia, something that hasn't happened in the past. This
was meant to send a signal to Russia, and to China as well, the days
of using the United Nations to have veto power over Western foreign
policy are coming to an end. Guardian (London, 15-March) and Reuters (18-March)
****
**** China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats
****
The expulsion of the diplomats by so many countries was a big surprise
to both Russia and China. China's state-controlled Global Times
responded with a furious editorial:
<QUOTE>"The fact that major Western powers can gang up and
"sentence" a foreign country without following the same procedures
other countries abide by and according to the basic tenets of
international law is chilling. During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease. Such actions are
nothing more than a form of Western bullying that threatens global
peace and justice."<END QUOTE>
It's laughable to read about the Chinese appealing to international
law. Keep in mind that what the Chinese are whining about is
expelling some diplomats. Contrast that to China's actions in the
South China Sea, which are violations of international law thousands
of times more serious than just expelling diplomats.
However, the article is right to say, "During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease." That was during a
generational Unraveling era, when everybody's behavior is far more
compromising. Today, the world is deep into a generational Crisis
era, and as I've written many dozens of times in recent years,
populations are becoming increasingly nationalistic, belligerent and
xenophobic.
<QUOTE>"Over the past few years the international standard
has been falsified and manipulated in ways never seen before. The
fundamental reason behind reducing global standards is rooted in
post-Cold War power disparities. The US, along with their allies,
jammed their ambitions into the international standards so their
actions, which were supposed to follow a set of standardized
procedures and protocol, were really nothing more than
profit-seizing opportunities designed only for themselves. These
same Western nations activated in full-force public
opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies to defend and justify
such privileges."<END QUOTE>
This is a typical Chinese anti-American rant. I don't know what
"full-force public opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies" this
is referring to, but in the West we have news sources expressing all
points of view, while in China if you express a view not approved by
the Chinese Communist Party, then you can get yourself abducted,
thrown into a pit, tortured and killed.
<QUOTE>"As of late, more foreign countries have been
victimized by Western rhetoric and nonsensical diplomatic
measures. In the end, the leaders of these nations are forced to
wear a hat featuring slogans and words that read "oppressing their
own people," "authoritarian," or "ethnic cleansing," regardless of
their innocence."<END QUOTE>
Who are these Chinese talking about? Maybe they're talking about the
officials in Myanmar (Burma) who are performing genocide and ethnic
cleansing on the Rohingyas.
<QUOTE>"It is beyond outrageous how the US and Europe have
treated Russia. Their actions represent a frivolity and
recklessness that has grown to characterize Western hegemony that
only knows how to contaminate international relations. Right now
is the perfect time for non-Western nations to strengthen unity
and collaborative efforts among one another. These nations need to
establish a level of independence outside the reach of Western
influence while breaking the chains of monopolization
declarations, predetermined adjudications, and come to value their
own judgement abilities.
It's already understood that to achieve such international
collective efforts is easier said than done as they require
foundational support before anything can happen. Until a new line
of allies emerges, multi-national associations like BRICS, or even
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, need to provide value to
those non-Western nations and actively create alliances with them.
What Russia is experiencing right could serve as a reflection of
how other non-Western nations can expect to be treated in the
not-to-distant future. Expelling Russian diplomats simultaneously
is hardly enough to deter Russia. Overall, it's an intimidation
tactic that has become emblematic of Western nations, and
furthermore, such measures are not supported by international law
and therefore unjustified. More importantly, the international
community should have the tools and means to counterbalance such
actions."<END QUOTE>
This gets to the heart of the matter. The Chinese are proposing to
create another international organization, perhaps a competitor to the
United Nations, where they would be in control. This idea is
completely delusional, since even if such an organization existed, it
would run into the same kinds of conflicts that occur in the UN
Security Council.
Russia and China in particular were almost in full-scale war with each
other in the 1960s. Today they have a marriage of convenience because
they're both annexing other countries' regions, doing what Hitler did
prior to WW II, and using each other to justify their actions. Russia
and China are basically two criminal countries, applying the rule of
"honor among thieves."
But the real message here is that China and Russia wish to formalize
their rejection of international law, which has formed the basis of
peace since the end of World War II.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Global Times
Related Articles
****
**** China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea
****
China has begun conducting massive maritime combat drills, including
dozens of vessels mobilized in the South China Sea as part of what the
military said would be bigger, more frequent exercises in the tense
region.
It appears increasingly that China is preparing its population for
war. This is an essential first step before actually launching a war.
Satellite photos show an aircraft carrier and dozens of Chinese naval
vessels in a large show of force. The Air Force said on its social
media account that the exercises were "rehearsals for future wars and
are the most direct preparation for combat." Global Times and
Telegraph (London) and Newsweek and Stars and Stripes and Reuters
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tunisia, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Benghazi,
Mediterranean Sea, Arab League, Egypt, NATO,
Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
North Korea, China, Donald Trump, Theresa May,
Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Britain, Boris Johnson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
- The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal
- China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats
- China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea
****
**** Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
****
Early March: Vladimir Putin smirks when a BBC reporter asks him whether Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal
In 2011, massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia spread to Libya,
and by February, the bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and
Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west. This caused a massive
refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of refugees
pouring into Egypt and neighboring countries, and across the
Mediterranean into Europe. That led the Arab League to demand that
the West implement a no-fly zone, and approval by the UN Security
Council. The no-fly zone eventually led to the war in Libya, and the
death of Muammar Gaddafi.
As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN
Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United
States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any
policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)
The way it works is that Russia demands that any military action taken
by the United States or Nato must be approved by the UN Security
Council, giving the Russians an effective veto of the US and Nato
foreign policy. On the other hand, Russia can invade Ukraine, invade
Crimea, annex Crimea, support war crimes by Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
all without getting any UN approval. So Russia has complete military
freedom, while the West is constrained by Russia's UNSC veto. It's
really a remarkable plan, and it's been incredibly successful,
completely crippling the UN, and turning it into a body that provides
cover for international criminals, rather than stopping them.
China has adopted a variation of the same strategy. China has built
artificial islands in the South China Sea, annexing other countries'
regions or blocking access by other countries to their centuries-old
fishing grounds, and has turned those artificial islands into massive
military bases. The United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in
the Hague eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July, 2013, and ruled that all of
China's activities are unambiguously violations of international law.
China's reaction is to say that international law doesn't apply to
them. China has also been using its military to bully other nations
into supporting them. It's as if the KKK lynched 10 black men and
then bullied cops and judges into supporting them.
So Russia and China have made it clear that international law doesn't
apply to them, and they can do anything they want, and they'll kill
anyone who tries to stop them.
Two recent international events, both major and remarkable, have made
it clear that this strategy is no longer working.
The first is the North Korea situation, where the Donald Trump
administration had made military threats that are actually credible.
A lot of people have said publicly that they think that Trump is
crazy, but that's a negotiating strategy that's worked to his
advantage, since both China and North Korea think he's crazy enough to
carry through with his threat. And it's clear that any military
action taken by the Trump administration will not be subject to a
Russian or Chinese veto in the UN Security Council.
****
**** The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal
****
The second remarkable international event is the Western reaction to
the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,
using a
Russia-developed nerve agent Novichok. At this writing, both of the
poison victims are in hospital, and are not expected to survive.
From the beginning, there was little doubt that Russia was
responsible, and that they were sure they would get away with it,
because of Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council. As I
reported in my article, Russia's president Vladimir Putin smirked and
gave a sarcastic answer when a BBC reporter asked about it.
This was followed by a massive disinformation campaign by Russia by
Russian trolls, calling the accusations a "circus show," a "fairy
tale," and a "plot to victimize Russia." On the BBC a couple of days
ago, I heard a Russian official claim that this was the latest in 200
years of Western attacks on Russia.
Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious response to
this:
<QUOTE>"There is something in the kind of smug, sarcastic
response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental
guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time
to glory in it.
There is very little doubt in people’s minds that this is a
signature act by the Russia state – deliberately using novichok, a
nerve agent developed by Russia to punish a Russian defector as
they would see it, and in the run up to Vladimir Putin’s election.
This was a former Russian agent living in this country who had
been singled out already by the Russian state as an object for
revenge and retaliation, and Vladimir Putin has been on the TV
only recently saying that such people deserve to be poisoned, to
choke on their own 30 pieces of silver. This is a way of showing
look at what happens to people who stand up to our
regime."<END QUOTE>
An investigation of the evidence by scientists from Britain and
several other European countries led to the conclusion that Russia,
and probably Putin himself, were responsible for the poisoning.
That much isn't remarkable at all. Putin has had other former agents
poisoned in the past, and has violated international law many times,
and there were the same kinds of investigations, and the same kinds of
disinformation campaigns by Russian trolls. And there was always the
same smirk, because Putin knew that he would get away with it.
What is remarkable this time is that Western nations were united in
backing Britain's prime minister Theresa May in taking action against
Russia. Over 20 countries, including the US, Canada, and several
European Union countries, have expelled Russian diplomats.
Expelling diplomats is not going to do much damage to Putin. The
shocking thing is that all of these Western nations were unified in
condemning Russia, something that hasn't happened in the past. This
was meant to send a signal to Russia, and to China as well, the days
of using the United Nations to have veto power over Western foreign
policy are coming to an end. Guardian (London, 15-March) and Reuters (18-March)
****
**** China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats
****
The expulsion of the diplomats by so many countries was a big surprise
to both Russia and China. China's state-controlled Global Times
responded with a furious editorial:
<QUOTE>"The fact that major Western powers can gang up and
"sentence" a foreign country without following the same procedures
other countries abide by and according to the basic tenets of
international law is chilling. During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease. Such actions are
nothing more than a form of Western bullying that threatens global
peace and justice."<END QUOTE>
It's laughable to read about the Chinese appealing to international
law. Keep in mind that what the Chinese are whining about is
expelling some diplomats. Contrast that to China's actions in the
South China Sea, which are violations of international law thousands
of times more serious than just expelling diplomats.
However, the article is right to say, "During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease." That was during a
generational Unraveling era, when everybody's behavior is far more
compromising. Today, the world is deep into a generational Crisis
era, and as I've written many dozens of times in recent years,
populations are becoming increasingly nationalistic, belligerent and
xenophobic.
<QUOTE>"Over the past few years the international standard
has been falsified and manipulated in ways never seen before. The
fundamental reason behind reducing global standards is rooted in
post-Cold War power disparities. The US, along with their allies,
jammed their ambitions into the international standards so their
actions, which were supposed to follow a set of standardized
procedures and protocol, were really nothing more than
profit-seizing opportunities designed only for themselves. These
same Western nations activated in full-force public
opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies to defend and justify
such privileges."<END QUOTE>
This is a typical Chinese anti-American rant. I don't know what
"full-force public opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies" this
is referring to, but in the West we have news sources expressing all
points of view, while in China if you express a view not approved by
the Chinese Communist Party, then you can get yourself abducted,
thrown into a pit, tortured and killed.
<QUOTE>"As of late, more foreign countries have been
victimized by Western rhetoric and nonsensical diplomatic
measures. In the end, the leaders of these nations are forced to
wear a hat featuring slogans and words that read "oppressing their
own people," "authoritarian," or "ethnic cleansing," regardless of
their innocence."<END QUOTE>
Who are these Chinese talking about? Maybe they're talking about the
officials in Myanmar (Burma) who are performing genocide and ethnic
cleansing on the Rohingyas.
<QUOTE>"It is beyond outrageous how the US and Europe have
treated Russia. Their actions represent a frivolity and
recklessness that has grown to characterize Western hegemony that
only knows how to contaminate international relations. Right now
is the perfect time for non-Western nations to strengthen unity
and collaborative efforts among one another. These nations need to
establish a level of independence outside the reach of Western
influence while breaking the chains of monopolization
declarations, predetermined adjudications, and come to value their
own judgement abilities.
It's already understood that to achieve such international
collective efforts is easier said than done as they require
foundational support before anything can happen. Until a new line
of allies emerges, multi-national associations like BRICS, or even
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, need to provide value to
those non-Western nations and actively create alliances with them.
What Russia is experiencing right could serve as a reflection of
how other non-Western nations can expect to be treated in the
not-to-distant future. Expelling Russian diplomats simultaneously
is hardly enough to deter Russia. Overall, it's an intimidation
tactic that has become emblematic of Western nations, and
furthermore, such measures are not supported by international law
and therefore unjustified. More importantly, the international
community should have the tools and means to counterbalance such
actions."<END QUOTE>
This gets to the heart of the matter. The Chinese are proposing to
create another international organization, perhaps a competitor to the
United Nations, where they would be in control. This idea is
completely delusional, since even if such an organization existed, it
would run into the same kinds of conflicts that occur in the UN
Security Council.
Russia and China in particular were almost in full-scale war with each
other in the 1960s. Today they have a marriage of convenience because
they're both annexing other countries' regions, doing what Hitler did
prior to WW II, and using each other to justify their actions. Russia
and China are basically two criminal countries, applying the rule of
"honor among thieves."
But the real message here is that China and Russia wish to formalize
their rejection of international law, which has formed the basis of
peace since the end of World War II.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Global Times
Related Articles
- Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
- Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (15-Aug-2014)
- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
- Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
****
**** China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea
****
China has begun conducting massive maritime combat drills, including
dozens of vessels mobilized in the South China Sea as part of what the
military said would be bigger, more frequent exercises in the tense
region.
It appears increasingly that China is preparing its population for
war. This is an essential first step before actually launching a war.
Satellite photos show an aircraft carrier and dozens of Chinese naval
vessels in a large show of force. The Air Force said on its social
media account that the exercises were "rehearsals for future wars and
are the most direct preparation for combat." Global Times and
Telegraph (London) and Newsweek and Stars and Stripes and Reuters
Related Articles:
- How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
- Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tunisia, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Benghazi,
Mediterranean Sea, Arab League, Egypt, NATO,
Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
North Korea, China, Donald Trump, Theresa May,
Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Britain, Boris Johnson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
