03-30-2018, 10:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-31-2018, 09:30 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
****
![[Image: g180330b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180330b.jpg)
Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Like regions in the South China Sea, India and Central Asia, the Chinese are claiming that it's their sovereign territory
In 2012, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning that
a huge influx of immigrants from China into Siberia and Far East
threatened Russia's control of the region and its rich resources. He
said that it was "important not to allow negative manifestations
... including the formation of enclaves made up of foreign citizens."
Medvedev even went so far as to invite the victims of Japan's 2011
earthquake to migrate there, at least partially over concern about
Chinese migrants. Medvedev discussed offering supplies of food and
medical equipment to the Japanese, and added, "In general we must now
think about the use, if necessary, of some of the employment potential
of our [Japanese] neighbors, especially in sparsely populated areas of
Siberia and the Far East."
Medvedev was right to be concerned. Russia's Far East suffered rapid
depopulation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the
1990s, there was enormous poverty and no support from the chaotic
Moscow government. As a result, population fell by as much as 50% in
the region, as millions migrated east, mostly to the European part of
Russia. According to Medvedev, "More than eight million foreign
citizens came to Russia in the first six months of 2012 alone."
And the flow has continued since then. In just one city, Khabarovsk,
about 20 miles from the Chinese border, more than 300 Chinese
companies have business operations, investing in almost every major
sector of the city’s economy such as trade, construction, lumber and
natural resources exploration, hiring thousands of Chinese
migrant workers.
It's estimated that 1.5 million Chinese illegal migrant workers
arrived in the region between June 2016 and June 2017, most of them
doing manual labor. Russia's Far East is home to only seven million
Russians (or just 1.3 per square kilometer), while there are ten times
as many people living across the border in the northeastern region of
China. Obviously, there's no way for Russian authorities to halt the
flow of migrant workers from China. Jamestown and South China Morning Post (8-Jul-2017) and ABC News (14-Jul-2015)
****
**** Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
****
The deepest lake in the world is Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Its
surface area is the size of Belgium. It draws tourists from all over
the world, but particularly from China.
Russians are worried that Lake Baikal is drowning in garbage -- mostly
from the Chinese migrants and tourists. According to Ivan Loginov,
head of the public organization New Energy, the problem of garbage
around Lake Baikal is a huge problem:
<QUOTE>"Literally next to any village or place of congestion
people form huge mountains of garbage. And the saddest thing is
that neither the volunteers nor the municipalities have enough
strength to fight garbage. Vicious circle. People come and litter,
but they do not have enough understanding that this garbage needs
to be cleaned. And if they even collect it for themselves, they
leave it on the bank, where it gradually accumulates.
The municipalities do not have enough money to fight
garbage. Moreover, the question arises: where should we take this
garbage? In Buryatia garbage is not processed, roughly speaking,
it is buried underground. And the situation is very deplorable.
... And garbage remains on the shores of Lake
Baikal."<END QUOTE>
The rising mountains of garbage are just one of the reasons that local
Russians are appalled by Chinese tourists. Chinese guides tell
Chinese tourists that Baikal is China’s northern sea, that their
ancestors used to live there, and that the territory only belongs to
Russia for the time being. These guides also reportedly encourage
Chinese visitors to buy property and businesses in order to make money
over the next decade. Many are doing so.
Chinese involvement in the region has inspired outrage among Russians
for several reasons. First is the massive influx of tourists who
often behave badly, use only Chinese facilities and so bring little
money to Russian firms, and are hated by the local population. Second,
Chinese citizens have been buying up land on Lake Baikal that Russians
are not allowed to purchase as well as acquiring various Russian
companies. All this has been leading to an influx of Chinese permanent
residents. And third, the entirely illegal Chinese logging operations
in the region are being protected by Russian criminal groups and
Russian officials allied with them.
Chinese tourists, businesses and migrants are taking control of the
region around Lake Baikal. This is not a trivial matter, and will
lead to war when the time is ripe. Hong Kong Economic Journal (20-Sep-2017) and NY Times (24-Jul-2016) and Eurasian Business Briefing and Regnum (Russia) and
(translation)
****
**** Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia
****
The Chinese are increasingly claiming "indisputable sovereignty" over
many countries' regions, including India, several Central Asian
states, and of course the South China Sea, where the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has ruled that all of China's activities are illegal.
International law means little to the Chinese, who say that their own
laws supersede international law, and give them the right to invade
and annex any region they choose, and back it up with their massive
and growing military, threatening to kill anyone who disagrees with
them.
Media reports indicate that Chinese people are asking this question,
especially in social media:
<QUOTE>"If China was able to take back Hong Kong from the
British on the grounds that the territory was ceded to Britain
under an unequal treaty concluded in the 1840s, then why didn’t it
reclaim Vladivostok as well, which was also ceded to Russia under
another unequal treaty signed in the 1860s?"<END QUOTE>
Vladivostok is the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet. It's the farthest
point east in Russia, and it's connected to Moscow by the
Trans-Siberian Railway that runs to and from Moscow in a week-long
trip.
Although the Chinese are now claiming Vladivostok as a historically
Chinese city, that's provably not true, as it was a city controlled by
Manchuria, not China. The Chinese call the city by its Manchurian
name, Haishenwai. After China was defeated by the British Opium wars
of the 1840s-50s, China was forced to cede Hong Kong to the British,
and Vladivostok to the Russians. China annexed Manchuria after World
War II, but Vladivostok remained in Russian (Soviet) hands.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin takes a great deal of pride in
Vladivostok and the Pacific Fleet. There is no possibility at all
that Vladivostok will be ceded to the Chinese without a full-scale
war, despite the demands of the Chinese social media.
As long-time readers have known for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that the world is headed for a new Clash of Civilizations
world war, with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
I'm frequently asked how it's possible that Russia will be a US ally,
rather than a Chinese ally. The current alliance between Russia and
China is a "marriage of convenience" between the countries, because
they are both repeating Hitler's actions of annexing other countries'
regions, and then they support each other in the United Nations.
As we reported last year,
China
has placed nuclear missiles near the Amur River, which separates China
from Russia's Far East. The nominal purpose of these Chinese missiles
is to attack the US, but these and other missile systems can also
conveniently target Moscow and other Russian targets.
Historically, the Russian and Chinese people hate each other. In the
1200s, the Mongols under Genghis Khan conquered and dominated China,
in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206, forming the Mongol
Empire, the largest empire in history. In the next generational
crisis war, Genghis Khan's grandson, Kublai Khan, conquered all of
China, and created the Yuan Dynasty in 1271.
From there, the Mongol Empire attacked and conquered almost all the
Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. The Mongol Yoke was only thrown
off in September 8, 1380, in the seminal Battle of Kulikovo, a
generational crisis war where the Russians decisively defeated the
Mongols, and the Russian nation was born.
The Mongol Yoke still defines Russian-Chinese attitudes today. Even
as recently as the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union almost went to
war in the border region with Siberia and the Far East.
There's a certain ironic truth that comes through when you read
Russian history. The Russian people and the Chinese people hate each
other, but the Russian people like the American people, and they love
the European people, despite the rhetoric of politicians. In the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, when Russia is forced to
choose between China and the West, they will choose the West.
Russia Beyond the Headlines and Way To Russia
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Russia, Far East, Siberia, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Japan, Khabarovsk,
Ivan Loginov, Vladivostok, Haishenwai, Manchuria,
Hong Kong, South China Sea, Amur River,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Mongols, Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan, Yuan Dynasty,
Mongol Yoke, Battle of Kulikovo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
- Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
- Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia
****
**** Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
****
Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Like regions in the South China Sea, India and Central Asia, the Chinese are claiming that it's their sovereign territory
In 2012, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning that
a huge influx of immigrants from China into Siberia and Far East
threatened Russia's control of the region and its rich resources. He
said that it was "important not to allow negative manifestations
... including the formation of enclaves made up of foreign citizens."
Medvedev even went so far as to invite the victims of Japan's 2011
earthquake to migrate there, at least partially over concern about
Chinese migrants. Medvedev discussed offering supplies of food and
medical equipment to the Japanese, and added, "In general we must now
think about the use, if necessary, of some of the employment potential
of our [Japanese] neighbors, especially in sparsely populated areas of
Siberia and the Far East."
Medvedev was right to be concerned. Russia's Far East suffered rapid
depopulation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the
1990s, there was enormous poverty and no support from the chaotic
Moscow government. As a result, population fell by as much as 50% in
the region, as millions migrated east, mostly to the European part of
Russia. According to Medvedev, "More than eight million foreign
citizens came to Russia in the first six months of 2012 alone."
And the flow has continued since then. In just one city, Khabarovsk,
about 20 miles from the Chinese border, more than 300 Chinese
companies have business operations, investing in almost every major
sector of the city’s economy such as trade, construction, lumber and
natural resources exploration, hiring thousands of Chinese
migrant workers.
It's estimated that 1.5 million Chinese illegal migrant workers
arrived in the region between June 2016 and June 2017, most of them
doing manual labor. Russia's Far East is home to only seven million
Russians (or just 1.3 per square kilometer), while there are ten times
as many people living across the border in the northeastern region of
China. Obviously, there's no way for Russian authorities to halt the
flow of migrant workers from China. Jamestown and South China Morning Post (8-Jul-2017) and ABC News (14-Jul-2015)
****
**** Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
****
The deepest lake in the world is Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Its
surface area is the size of Belgium. It draws tourists from all over
the world, but particularly from China.
Russians are worried that Lake Baikal is drowning in garbage -- mostly
from the Chinese migrants and tourists. According to Ivan Loginov,
head of the public organization New Energy, the problem of garbage
around Lake Baikal is a huge problem:
<QUOTE>"Literally next to any village or place of congestion
people form huge mountains of garbage. And the saddest thing is
that neither the volunteers nor the municipalities have enough
strength to fight garbage. Vicious circle. People come and litter,
but they do not have enough understanding that this garbage needs
to be cleaned. And if they even collect it for themselves, they
leave it on the bank, where it gradually accumulates.
The municipalities do not have enough money to fight
garbage. Moreover, the question arises: where should we take this
garbage? In Buryatia garbage is not processed, roughly speaking,
it is buried underground. And the situation is very deplorable.
... And garbage remains on the shores of Lake
Baikal."<END QUOTE>
The rising mountains of garbage are just one of the reasons that local
Russians are appalled by Chinese tourists. Chinese guides tell
Chinese tourists that Baikal is China’s northern sea, that their
ancestors used to live there, and that the territory only belongs to
Russia for the time being. These guides also reportedly encourage
Chinese visitors to buy property and businesses in order to make money
over the next decade. Many are doing so.
Chinese involvement in the region has inspired outrage among Russians
for several reasons. First is the massive influx of tourists who
often behave badly, use only Chinese facilities and so bring little
money to Russian firms, and are hated by the local population. Second,
Chinese citizens have been buying up land on Lake Baikal that Russians
are not allowed to purchase as well as acquiring various Russian
companies. All this has been leading to an influx of Chinese permanent
residents. And third, the entirely illegal Chinese logging operations
in the region are being protected by Russian criminal groups and
Russian officials allied with them.
Chinese tourists, businesses and migrants are taking control of the
region around Lake Baikal. This is not a trivial matter, and will
lead to war when the time is ripe. Hong Kong Economic Journal (20-Sep-2017) and NY Times (24-Jul-2016) and Eurasian Business Briefing and Regnum (Russia) and
(translation)
****
**** Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia
****
The Chinese are increasingly claiming "indisputable sovereignty" over
many countries' regions, including India, several Central Asian
states, and of course the South China Sea, where the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has ruled that all of China's activities are illegal.
International law means little to the Chinese, who say that their own
laws supersede international law, and give them the right to invade
and annex any region they choose, and back it up with their massive
and growing military, threatening to kill anyone who disagrees with
them.
Media reports indicate that Chinese people are asking this question,
especially in social media:
<QUOTE>"If China was able to take back Hong Kong from the
British on the grounds that the territory was ceded to Britain
under an unequal treaty concluded in the 1840s, then why didn’t it
reclaim Vladivostok as well, which was also ceded to Russia under
another unequal treaty signed in the 1860s?"<END QUOTE>
Vladivostok is the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet. It's the farthest
point east in Russia, and it's connected to Moscow by the
Trans-Siberian Railway that runs to and from Moscow in a week-long
trip.
Although the Chinese are now claiming Vladivostok as a historically
Chinese city, that's provably not true, as it was a city controlled by
Manchuria, not China. The Chinese call the city by its Manchurian
name, Haishenwai. After China was defeated by the British Opium wars
of the 1840s-50s, China was forced to cede Hong Kong to the British,
and Vladivostok to the Russians. China annexed Manchuria after World
War II, but Vladivostok remained in Russian (Soviet) hands.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin takes a great deal of pride in
Vladivostok and the Pacific Fleet. There is no possibility at all
that Vladivostok will be ceded to the Chinese without a full-scale
war, despite the demands of the Chinese social media.
As long-time readers have known for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that the world is headed for a new Clash of Civilizations
world war, with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
I'm frequently asked how it's possible that Russia will be a US ally,
rather than a Chinese ally. The current alliance between Russia and
China is a "marriage of convenience" between the countries, because
they are both repeating Hitler's actions of annexing other countries'
regions, and then they support each other in the United Nations.
As we reported last year,
China
has placed nuclear missiles near the Amur River, which separates China
from Russia's Far East. The nominal purpose of these Chinese missiles
is to attack the US, but these and other missile systems can also
conveniently target Moscow and other Russian targets.
Historically, the Russian and Chinese people hate each other. In the
1200s, the Mongols under Genghis Khan conquered and dominated China,
in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206, forming the Mongol
Empire, the largest empire in history. In the next generational
crisis war, Genghis Khan's grandson, Kublai Khan, conquered all of
China, and created the Yuan Dynasty in 1271.
From there, the Mongol Empire attacked and conquered almost all the
Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. The Mongol Yoke was only thrown
off in September 8, 1380, in the seminal Battle of Kulikovo, a
generational crisis war where the Russians decisively defeated the
Mongols, and the Russian nation was born.
The Mongol Yoke still defines Russian-Chinese attitudes today. Even
as recently as the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union almost went to
war in the border region with Siberia and the Far East.
There's a certain ironic truth that comes through when you read
Russian history. The Russian people and the Chinese people hate each
other, but the Russian people like the American people, and they love
the European people, despite the rhetoric of politicians. In the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, when Russia is forced to
choose between China and the West, they will choose the West.
Russia Beyond the Headlines and Way To Russia
Related Articles
- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America (27-Jan-2017)
- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria (26-Sep-2014)
- Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
- The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity (22-Mar-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Russia, Far East, Siberia, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Japan, Khabarovsk,
Ivan Loginov, Vladivostok, Haishenwai, Manchuria,
Hong Kong, South China Sea, Amur River,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Mongols, Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan, Yuan Dynasty,
Mongol Yoke, Battle of Kulikovo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
