Question for John X. Back in 2003-4 you forecast a Dow of 4000 or less by the end of 2004. I argued that the market likely had already bottomed in 2002 at 7286 on the Dow and was buyable (https://safehaven.com/article/84/how-low...ave-to-say). The concept on which your prediction was based as historical mean-reversion to a single digit P/E according to the Shiller method (now called CAPE)
Here is a chart of CAPE values ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ ). CAPE got to 15 on the 2008 financial crisis, and is now 31. In our discussions, I said you were right that CAPE would return to single digit values, but it would be around 2020. I am now where you were in 2003-2004 making a ridiculously bearish forecast that the Dow is going to go to 8000 or so.
Do you still follow the market, or have you given up?
Here is a chart of CAPE values ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ ). CAPE got to 15 on the 2008 financial crisis, and is now 31. In our discussions, I said you were right that CAPE would return to single digit values, but it would be around 2020. I am now where you were in 2003-2004 making a ridiculously bearish forecast that the Dow is going to go to 8000 or so.
Do you still follow the market, or have you given up?
