04-11-2018, 11:03 PM
*** 12-Apr-18 World View -- The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
****
![[Image: g180411b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180411b.jpg)
Survivor of Saturday's chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria (Getty)
President Donald Trump on Sunday had promised retaliation within 24-48
hours for the use of chemical weapons by Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on Saturday on civilians, including women and children.
However, by Wednesday evening, no retaliation has occurred, and the
world is watching and waiting. But the rhetoric between Russia and
the US has heated up a great deal.
Alexander Zasypkin, Russia's ambassador to Lebanon, said on Wednesday:
<QUOTE>"if there is a US missile attack, we - in line with
both Putin and Russia's chief of staff's remarks - will shoot down
US rockets and even the sources that launched the
missiles."<END QUOTE>
Zasypkin was alluding to a previous Russian threat to shoot down not
only American missiles, but also the warplanes and battleships that
launches them.
This only served to goad president Trump, who tweeted this:
<QUOTE>"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired
at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and
new and "smart!" You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing
Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"<END QUOTE>
However, Trump was more conciliatory in a later tweet:
<QUOTE>"Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has
ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for
this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that
would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work
together. Stop the arms race?"<END QUOTE>
Long time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other.
Saturday's chemical weapons attack by al-Assad has caused a chain
reaction that has raised tensions in the Mideast to the next level
higher than they'd been before Saturday. Here's a summary:
Perhaps even more remarkable is that the political divide in the West,
including the United States, is getting more hostile, and not just
along party lines. It's increasingly hostile to hear American
analysts and journalists side with Russia trolls in claiming that
there's "no proof" that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons or Sarin
gas, in the face of conclusions reached by America, British, French,
German and other governments.
Russia has lied repeatedly about Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, and other
things, and for an American analyst to side with Russian trolls
against multiple Western governments is truly a remarkable
development. And as I reported yesterday,
this has even extended to the point where Newsweek
magazine is publishing easily debunkable fake news US Secretary of
Defense is claiming that no evidence exists that al-Assad ever used
Sarin gas.
So let me try to make this clear.
Since the Syrian war began, I've written 359 analytical articles with
"Syria" in the title, and hundreds more where Syria was discussed, but
not in the title. These articles are all available on my web site for
anyone to check.
I have an archive of almost 100,000 articles that I've copied and
pasted in the last 15 years. Over 3,000 of those articles have
"Syria" in the title, and probably tens of thousands more discuss the
Syria war. These articles are from all political biases and from all
media sources and all countries available on the internet. I
typically study 10-20 of these articles in detail for each article
that I write.
My point is this: 99.9% of the time, I know a lot more than you do.
And I'm telling you that there's no doubt that Bashar al-Assad has
used Sarin gas several times on innocent civilians, and has used
chlorine gas, phosphorous and ammonia many, many times on innocent
civilians. There is no question about this.
But the fact that some Americans are calling officials in both the
Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrators liars, and are saying
that paid Russian trolls are telling the truth, is truly a remarkable
development. Al-Jazeera and CNN and Reuters
Related Articles:
****
**** Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike
****
On Sunday, president Donald Trump threatened a "big price to pay"
after the chemical weapons attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
on Douma on Saturday. As I was writing an article about this
and on Sunday evening, Syria's state
media reported a missile attack on Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport)
near Homs. US officials denied having anything to do with the attack,
so it was thought that some other country, perhaps Britain, France or
Israel, might have been fulfilling Trump's "big price to pay" threat.
Well, news reports since then have indicated that the missile strike
on T4 airbase had nothing to do with Trump's threat, except possibly
to influence the timing. According to Iranian media, the attack was
from Israeli warplanes.
If it was an Israeli airstrike, then the target was an Iranian drone
base. Israel has repeatedly expressed its red lines when it comes to
Syria:
Israel neither confirmed nor denied the airstrike, but Israel's
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman made these comments:
<QUOTE>"I want to say one thing with absolute certainty. We
will not allow the Iranians to base themselves in Syria, no matter
what the price. We have no other choice. To agree to the Iranians
basing themselves in Syria is like agreeing to Iran putting a
noose around our neck."<END QUOTE>
Iran's media is reporting that four Iranians were killed by the
Israeli airstrikes.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed
Ali Khamenei, said:
<QUOTE>"The Israeli regime's aggression against Syria is a
breach of this country's national sovereignty and territorial
integrity and runs counter to all international regulations and
principles."<END QUOTE>
Velayati added, "Definitely, this crime (by Israel) will not remain
without a response."
Israeli forces have gone onto high alert, and Israeli media are
talking about a "proxy war between Iran and Israel" taking place on
Syrian soil:
<QUOTE>"Beyond the confrontation between Russia and the
United States, the main story in the northern arena is the direct
confrontation between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil. There is no
more shadow war or contest through agents. The confrontation
between Israel and Iran, it seems, is turning into a limited
direct military confrontation. It is impossible to ignore the fact
that within two months, in at least two known incidents, Iranian
fighters and officers were killed by an action attributed to the
Israeli Air Force. It seems that in light of the continued Iranian
consolidation in Syria, Israel has decided to remove the gloves.
After the day of battle two months ago, when the Iranian UAV was
intercepted and an Israeli fighter plane was shot down, quite a
few things happened underneath the surface, despite the apparent
media silence."<END QUOTE>
Former prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak said, “When on a
given day, the chance for [active military conflict with Iran] are
about one percent, now it is about 10%." CNN and Tasnim News (Iran) and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel
Related Articles
****
**** Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin
****
Turkey on Wednesday announced plans to open a new border crossing from
Turkey to the Syrian city of Afrin. The purpose of the border
crossing is to speed up delivery of humanitarian aid to the city, and
help build infrastructure in the region.
However, the border crossing will also strengthen Turkey's link to
Afrin, which is opposed by Russia, Iran and Syria.
Turkey's military Operation Olive Branch took place over several
months, with the objective of regaining control of Syria's border city
of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered by
the US and Europe as a terrorist organization, and has conducted
numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey over a thirty year period.
Now that the operation has been completely, apparently successfully,
Russia, Iran and Syria would all like the Turkish forces to withdraw
back into Turkey. Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
Monday:
<QUOTE>"[Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has never
said that Turkey wants to occupy Afrin. We always proceed from the
fact that the easiest way to normalize the situation in Afrin now
that Turkish representatives say that the main goals they set
there have been achieved would be to return the territory under
the control of the Syrian government."<END QUOTE>
However, Erdogan rejected Lavrov's remarks:
<QUOTE>"We know very well who we’ll hand Afrin to. First,
let’s talk about handing over areas controlled by other countries
in Syria to Syria.
When the time comes, we will give Afrin to the people of Afrin
personally, but the timing of this is up to us, we will determine
it, not Mr. Lavrov."<END QUOTE>
Turkey, Russia and Iran have had a three-way alliance of convenience
for several months, creating "de-escalation zones" in Syria. However,
neither the Syrian regime nor any of the Syrian rebel groups doing the
actual fighting were party to the agreements. Whatever the value of
that alliance, it appears to be losing whatever little effectiveness
it had, and increasingly is fraying, as all the participants in the
Syrian war are looking forward to grabbing their respective pieces of
Syria. Anadolu (Turkey) and Sputnik (Russia) and Reuters
Related Articles:
****
**** Yemen war escalates as Iran-backed Houthis launch missiles at Saudi targets
****
The Houthi rebels in Yemen declared this to be the "year of ballistic
missiles," after firing a ballistic missiles on Wednesday at targets
in Saudi Arabia's capital city Riyadh, and also at oil storage
facilities belonging to the Saudi oil company Aramco. The missiles
either missed their targets or were shot down by Saudi air defenses,
but a successful strike on an oil storage facility could do a great
deal of damage.
Last week, Houthi rebels caused minor damage to a Saudi oil tanker in
the Red Sea on Tuesday. The oil tanker was able to continue on its
way, escorted by a Saudi coalition warship.
The Houthis are using ballistic missiles and armed drones that could
only have been supplied by Iran. Saudi threatened "a heavy price" for
the Houthis, and for those who are equipping the Houthis. Al Jazeera and Reuters and Arab News and
Deutsche Welle (3-Apr)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Donald Trump,
Russia, Alexander Zasypkin, Sergei Lavrov,
Israel, Iran, T4 airbase, Tayfur airport,
Avigdor Liberman, Ehud Barak, Ali Akbar Velayati, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Turkey, Afrin, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Yemen, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Aramco
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
- Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike
- Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin
- Yemen war escalates as Iran-backed Houthis launch missiles at Saudi targets
****
**** The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
****
Survivor of Saturday's chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria (Getty)
President Donald Trump on Sunday had promised retaliation within 24-48
hours for the use of chemical weapons by Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on Saturday on civilians, including women and children.
However, by Wednesday evening, no retaliation has occurred, and the
world is watching and waiting. But the rhetoric between Russia and
the US has heated up a great deal.
Alexander Zasypkin, Russia's ambassador to Lebanon, said on Wednesday:
<QUOTE>"if there is a US missile attack, we - in line with
both Putin and Russia's chief of staff's remarks - will shoot down
US rockets and even the sources that launched the
missiles."<END QUOTE>
Zasypkin was alluding to a previous Russian threat to shoot down not
only American missiles, but also the warplanes and battleships that
launches them.
This only served to goad president Trump, who tweeted this:
<QUOTE>"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired
at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and
new and "smart!" You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing
Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"<END QUOTE>
However, Trump was more conciliatory in a later tweet:
<QUOTE>"Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has
ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for
this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that
would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work
together. Stop the arms race?"<END QUOTE>
Long time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other.
Saturday's chemical weapons attack by al-Assad has caused a chain
reaction that has raised tensions in the Mideast to the next level
higher than they'd been before Saturday. Here's a summary:
- Israel and Iran appear headed for a proxy war in Syria.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting a proxy war in Yemen.
- The U.S. and Syria are headed for a confrontation in Syria.
- The U.S. and Russia may be headed for a confrontation in
Syria.
- Turkey and Russia are headed for a confrontation in
Syria.
Perhaps even more remarkable is that the political divide in the West,
including the United States, is getting more hostile, and not just
along party lines. It's increasingly hostile to hear American
analysts and journalists side with Russia trolls in claiming that
there's "no proof" that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons or Sarin
gas, in the face of conclusions reached by America, British, French,
German and other governments.
Russia has lied repeatedly about Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, and other
things, and for an American analyst to side with Russian trolls
against multiple Western governments is truly a remarkable
development. And as I reported yesterday,
this has even extended to the point where Newsweek
magazine is publishing easily debunkable fake news US Secretary of
Defense is claiming that no evidence exists that al-Assad ever used
Sarin gas.
So let me try to make this clear.
Since the Syrian war began, I've written 359 analytical articles with
"Syria" in the title, and hundreds more where Syria was discussed, but
not in the title. These articles are all available on my web site for
anyone to check.
I have an archive of almost 100,000 articles that I've copied and
pasted in the last 15 years. Over 3,000 of those articles have
"Syria" in the title, and probably tens of thousands more discuss the
Syria war. These articles are from all political biases and from all
media sources and all countries available on the internet. I
typically study 10-20 of these articles in detail for each article
that I write.
My point is this: 99.9% of the time, I know a lot more than you do.
And I'm telling you that there's no doubt that Bashar al-Assad has
used Sarin gas several times on innocent civilians, and has used
chlorine gas, phosphorous and ammonia many, many times on innocent
civilians. There is no question about this.
But the fact that some Americans are calling officials in both the
Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrators liars, and are saying
that paid Russian trolls are telling the truth, is truly a remarkable
development. Al-Jazeera and CNN and Reuters
Related Articles:
- Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use (11-Apr-2018)
- Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria (09-Apr-2018)
- Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
****
**** Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike
****
On Sunday, president Donald Trump threatened a "big price to pay"
after the chemical weapons attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
on Douma on Saturday. As I was writing an article about this
and on Sunday evening, Syria's state
media reported a missile attack on Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport)
near Homs. US officials denied having anything to do with the attack,
so it was thought that some other country, perhaps Britain, France or
Israel, might have been fulfilling Trump's "big price to pay" threat.
Well, news reports since then have indicated that the missile strike
on T4 airbase had nothing to do with Trump's threat, except possibly
to influence the timing. According to Iranian media, the attack was
from Israeli warplanes.
If it was an Israeli airstrike, then the target was an Iranian drone
base. Israel has repeatedly expressed its red lines when it comes to
Syria:
- It will not allow the transfer of high-powered weapons to
Hezbollah.
- It will not allow any breach of Israeli sovereignty.
- It will work to prevent Iran from entrenching itself in
Syria.
Israel neither confirmed nor denied the airstrike, but Israel's
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman made these comments:
<QUOTE>"I want to say one thing with absolute certainty. We
will not allow the Iranians to base themselves in Syria, no matter
what the price. We have no other choice. To agree to the Iranians
basing themselves in Syria is like agreeing to Iran putting a
noose around our neck."<END QUOTE>
Iran's media is reporting that four Iranians were killed by the
Israeli airstrikes.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed
Ali Khamenei, said:
<QUOTE>"The Israeli regime's aggression against Syria is a
breach of this country's national sovereignty and territorial
integrity and runs counter to all international regulations and
principles."<END QUOTE>
Velayati added, "Definitely, this crime (by Israel) will not remain
without a response."
Israeli forces have gone onto high alert, and Israeli media are
talking about a "proxy war between Iran and Israel" taking place on
Syrian soil:
<QUOTE>"Beyond the confrontation between Russia and the
United States, the main story in the northern arena is the direct
confrontation between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil. There is no
more shadow war or contest through agents. The confrontation
between Israel and Iran, it seems, is turning into a limited
direct military confrontation. It is impossible to ignore the fact
that within two months, in at least two known incidents, Iranian
fighters and officers were killed by an action attributed to the
Israeli Air Force. It seems that in light of the continued Iranian
consolidation in Syria, Israel has decided to remove the gloves.
After the day of battle two months ago, when the Iranian UAV was
intercepted and an Israeli fighter plane was shot down, quite a
few things happened underneath the surface, despite the apparent
media silence."<END QUOTE>
Former prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak said, “When on a
given day, the chance for [active military conflict with Iran] are
about one percent, now it is about 10%." CNN and Tasnim News (Iran) and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel
Related Articles
- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
****
**** Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin
****
Turkey on Wednesday announced plans to open a new border crossing from
Turkey to the Syrian city of Afrin. The purpose of the border
crossing is to speed up delivery of humanitarian aid to the city, and
help build infrastructure in the region.
However, the border crossing will also strengthen Turkey's link to
Afrin, which is opposed by Russia, Iran and Syria.
Turkey's military Operation Olive Branch took place over several
months, with the objective of regaining control of Syria's border city
of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered by
the US and Europe as a terrorist organization, and has conducted
numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey over a thirty year period.
Now that the operation has been completely, apparently successfully,
Russia, Iran and Syria would all like the Turkish forces to withdraw
back into Turkey. Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
Monday:
<QUOTE>"[Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has never
said that Turkey wants to occupy Afrin. We always proceed from the
fact that the easiest way to normalize the situation in Afrin now
that Turkish representatives say that the main goals they set
there have been achieved would be to return the territory under
the control of the Syrian government."<END QUOTE>
However, Erdogan rejected Lavrov's remarks:
<QUOTE>"We know very well who we’ll hand Afrin to. First,
let’s talk about handing over areas controlled by other countries
in Syria to Syria.
When the time comes, we will give Afrin to the people of Afrin
personally, but the timing of this is up to us, we will determine
it, not Mr. Lavrov."<END QUOTE>
Turkey, Russia and Iran have had a three-way alliance of convenience
for several months, creating "de-escalation zones" in Syria. However,
neither the Syrian regime nor any of the Syrian rebel groups doing the
actual fighting were party to the agreements. Whatever the value of
that alliance, it appears to be losing whatever little effectiveness
it had, and increasingly is fraying, as all the participants in the
Syrian war are looking forward to grabbing their respective pieces of
Syria. Anadolu (Turkey) and Sputnik (Russia) and Reuters
Related Articles:
- Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter (16-Mar-2018)
- Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria (12-Mar-2018)
- US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin (08-Mar-2018)
- Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
****
**** Yemen war escalates as Iran-backed Houthis launch missiles at Saudi targets
****
The Houthi rebels in Yemen declared this to be the "year of ballistic
missiles," after firing a ballistic missiles on Wednesday at targets
in Saudi Arabia's capital city Riyadh, and also at oil storage
facilities belonging to the Saudi oil company Aramco. The missiles
either missed their targets or were shot down by Saudi air defenses,
but a successful strike on an oil storage facility could do a great
deal of damage.
Last week, Houthi rebels caused minor damage to a Saudi oil tanker in
the Red Sea on Tuesday. The oil tanker was able to continue on its
way, escorted by a Saudi coalition warship.
The Houthis are using ballistic missiles and armed drones that could
only have been supplied by Iran. Saudi threatened "a heavy price" for
the Houthis, and for those who are equipping the Houthis. Al Jazeera and Reuters and Arab News and
Deutsche Welle (3-Apr)
Related Articles:
- Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war (27-Mar-2018)
- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
- Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
- Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Donald Trump,
Russia, Alexander Zasypkin, Sergei Lavrov,
Israel, Iran, T4 airbase, Tayfur airport,
Avigdor Liberman, Ehud Barak, Ali Akbar Velayati, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Turkey, Afrin, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Yemen, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Aramco
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
