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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Apr-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse
  • Will China or Russia save Venezuela?

****
**** Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse
****


[Image: g180420b.jpg]
Oil tank labeled 'PDVSA - Homeland, Socialism or Death' (PanamPost)

Socialist Venezuela's state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela
S.A. (PDVSA) is close to collapse, beset with an ever-growing array of
new and growing problems.

Venezuela's oil refineries worked at 31% of their in the first quarter
in 2018, well below 2017 levels. Venezuela has not seen such low
levels of oil production since the 1980s. Average oil production
declined dramatically over the past two years, by 12% in 2016 and
again by 13% in 2017. Production in December 2017 was 27% lower than a
year earlier.

Late last year, Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro
appointed a military man, Major General Manuel Quevedo, head of PDVSA,
with a mandate to increase production and rid the company of
corruption. Quevedo and his team of military officers had no
experience in the oil industry, and replaced long-time experienced
employees with soldiers. According to an executive, "The military
guys arrive calling the engineers thieves and saboteurs."

There has been a stampede of PDVSA workers resigning from the company.
Already, 25,000 of the company's 146,000 employees resigned in 2017,
and the exodus has accelerated in 2018, as General Quevedo "quickly
alienated the firm’s embattled upper echelon and its rank-and-file,"
according to union leaders. Many of those leaving now are engineers,
managers, or lawyers, professionals that are almost impossible to
replace. Some offices now have lines outside with dozens of workers
waiting to resign, and there have been so many resignations that some
offices are refusing to accept any more of them.

The loss of all these workers is one of the causes of the fall in
production, and also the inability of the company to properly maintain
its equipment. Many drilling rigs work only intermittently for lack
of crews, and several small fires have broken out because there are no
longer enough supervisors.

The apparent oil industry collapse is a major factor in Venezuela's
economic deback. More than 90% of the country's hard currency is
obtained through oil exports. The country is also suffering the worst
economic depression ever recorded in Latin America. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates gross domestic product (GDP) contracted
by 16.5 percent in 2016 and 12 percent in 2017, and forecasts a 15
percent contraction for 2018. Inflation reached more than 2,600
percent in 2017, the highest in the world by a wide margin, and the
IMF forecasts 13,000 percent for 2018.
Curaçao Chronicle
and OilPrice
and Reuters

****
**** Will China or Russia save Venezuela?
****


Only China and Russia can provide Venezuela with enough money to keep
it from going into full-blown default, but it's doubtful that they
will. However, Russia has been purchasing Venezuelan oil fields in
exchange for loans, extending Russian influence in Venezuela. The
Soviet Union propped up Cuba's economy for decades, but it seems
unlikely that Russia will do the same for Venezuela, which is several
times larger and more expensive than Cuba.

It's worth repeating that this disaster is the fault of Socialism. As
I discussed in my article yesterday on Cuba's Socialism,
Socialism has a 100% failure rate. Socialism
killed hundreds of millions of people during the twentieth century,
far more than Naziism killed, and now it's destroying Venezuela.

Cuba seems to be stepping back from the brink, having implemented
a few reforms, though there's still a very long way to go.
But Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro refuses to implement
any reforms at all, and seems willing to destroy Venezuela
for his own benefit.
Atlantic Council (PDF)
and Bloomberg
and Council on Foreign Relations

Related articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., PDVSA,
Nicolás Maduro, Manuel Quevedo, China, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
21-Apr-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near tota - by John J. Xenakis - 04-20-2018, 10:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
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