04-25-2018, 09:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-25-2018, 10:35 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
****
![[Image: g180425b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180425b.jpg)
Soldiers from Armenia's army join the anti-government protests in Yerevan (charter97.org)
As we reported last week,
Armenia's opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan called for a "non-violent
velvet revolution," alluding to the peaceful 1989 uprising that ousted
the Communist regime in the former Czechoslovakia.
Answering Pashinyan's call, thousands of protesters blockaded streets
and government in Armenia's capital city Yerevan, with the objective
of preventing the parliament from voting to make Serzh Sargsyan, who
had already served ten years as president under the previous
constitution, the new prime minister under the new constitution.
The parliament did vote to make Sargsyan the next prime minister, but
as the street protests continued. The tide turned for Sargsyan on
April 23 when soldiers from the Armenian military left their barracks
and joined the protesters in the streets. Sargsyan announced on April
23 that he was stepping down, and would be replaced by acting prime
minister Karen Karapetyan (male), an ally of Sargsyan.
This was a clear victory for Pashinyan, and it was hoped that the
protests would end, and that Armenia would return to "normal."
Instead, tens of thousands of opposition protesters have returned to
the streets in Yerevan, demanding that the new prime minister and his
entire government step down. EurasiaNet and Guardian (London) and Charter97 (Russia)
and (Trans)
****
**** Fears grow that Armenia's instability will spill over into Russia
****
Armenia is a small country of 3 million people, strongly dependent
on Russia. In religion, the Armenian Apostolic Church is
very close to the Russian Orthodox Church. In trade,
Armenians working in Russia supply 20% of the country's GDP.
So Armenia has little choice but to do as directed by
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. And long-time president
Serzh Sargsyan, who was just forced to step down as prime minister,
always aligned policies with Russia, not with the West.
But a popular revolution could change all that, and there is already
talk of a new "color revolution" in Armenia. The opposition leader
Nikol Pashinyan has already invoked the 1989 Velvet Revolution in the
former Czechoslovakia that ousted the Communist regime.
Other color revolutions that have occurred in Russia's backyard
include the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003, the Orange Revolution
in Ukraine in 2004, and the Tulip Revolution (or Pink Revolution) in
Kyrgyzstan in 2005.
So Russia could be legitimately afraid that another color revolution
might occur, this time in Armenia, and bring to power a government
that was friendly to the West and unfriendly to Russia. Russia did
militarily invade Georgia and Ukraine after their respective
revolutions, so an invasion of Armenia at some point in the future is
a possibility, if things really get out of hand.
There's another concern that Putin might have. Putin himself
served two terms as president of Russia, then switched and
became prime minister to stay in power, then switched back
and became president again, arranging to the constitution to
be amended so that he could be president forever.
That, of course, is similar to what Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia. And
not were there massive protests, but Sargsyan was forced to step down
when the army joined the protests. Putin might fear that the Russian
people might copy the Armenian people's example and hold massive
anti-Putin protests, and then have army soldiers join the protests.
If that every happened in Russia, the outcome would be much bloodier
than in Armenia.
Washington Post and Jamestown and Moscow Times and Trend News (Azerbaijan) and Reuters
****
**** Armenian political chaos follows the path of America in the 1960s
****
As I described last week,
Armenia
is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the bloody
conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.
An Awakening era is the time when the first generation that grows up
after the war comes of age, and starts to make itself felt. Their
parents, the traumatized soldiers and other survivors of the war, try
to set rules and impose restrictions so that such a war will never
occur again. The kids in the younger generation, with no personal
memory of the war, rebel against these restrictions, creating
a "generation gap," or a political conflict between generations.
The forced resignation of Serzh Sargsyan might be roughly compared to
the President Lyndon Johnson's forced decision in 1968 not to run for
another term. He had hoped that by stepping down he would encourage
an end to the massive street protests, including some violence.
However, the protests and violence did not end. There were still
several "long, hot summers" to come, there was the violence at the
Democratic National Convention in 1968, there was Woodstock in 1969,
and there was the shootings at Kent State. Finally, the resignation
of Richard Nixon in 1974 was the Awakening climax, because it resolved
the generational conflict in favor of the younger post-war generation,
specifically the Boomers, over the GI Generation that had fought in
the war.
Today we're seeing exactly the same kind of generational conflict in
Armenia. The tens of thousands of young people who protested in the
streets of Yerevan may have won their first victory, but the protests
will continue in other forms for years, and there will be bursts of
violence. There will be no "return to normal" for Armenia for many
years. BBC
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Karen Karapetyan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Kent State, Woodstock
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
- Fears grow that Armenia's instability will spill over into Russia
- Armenian political chaos follows the path of America in the 1960s
****
**** Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
****
Soldiers from Armenia's army join the anti-government protests in Yerevan (charter97.org)
As we reported last week,
Armenia's opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan called for a "non-violent
velvet revolution," alluding to the peaceful 1989 uprising that ousted
the Communist regime in the former Czechoslovakia.
Answering Pashinyan's call, thousands of protesters blockaded streets
and government in Armenia's capital city Yerevan, with the objective
of preventing the parliament from voting to make Serzh Sargsyan, who
had already served ten years as president under the previous
constitution, the new prime minister under the new constitution.
The parliament did vote to make Sargsyan the next prime minister, but
as the street protests continued. The tide turned for Sargsyan on
April 23 when soldiers from the Armenian military left their barracks
and joined the protesters in the streets. Sargsyan announced on April
23 that he was stepping down, and would be replaced by acting prime
minister Karen Karapetyan (male), an ally of Sargsyan.
This was a clear victory for Pashinyan, and it was hoped that the
protests would end, and that Armenia would return to "normal."
Instead, tens of thousands of opposition protesters have returned to
the streets in Yerevan, demanding that the new prime minister and his
entire government step down. EurasiaNet and Guardian (London) and Charter97 (Russia)
and (Trans)
****
**** Fears grow that Armenia's instability will spill over into Russia
****
Armenia is a small country of 3 million people, strongly dependent
on Russia. In religion, the Armenian Apostolic Church is
very close to the Russian Orthodox Church. In trade,
Armenians working in Russia supply 20% of the country's GDP.
So Armenia has little choice but to do as directed by
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. And long-time president
Serzh Sargsyan, who was just forced to step down as prime minister,
always aligned policies with Russia, not with the West.
But a popular revolution could change all that, and there is already
talk of a new "color revolution" in Armenia. The opposition leader
Nikol Pashinyan has already invoked the 1989 Velvet Revolution in the
former Czechoslovakia that ousted the Communist regime.
Other color revolutions that have occurred in Russia's backyard
include the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003, the Orange Revolution
in Ukraine in 2004, and the Tulip Revolution (or Pink Revolution) in
Kyrgyzstan in 2005.
So Russia could be legitimately afraid that another color revolution
might occur, this time in Armenia, and bring to power a government
that was friendly to the West and unfriendly to Russia. Russia did
militarily invade Georgia and Ukraine after their respective
revolutions, so an invasion of Armenia at some point in the future is
a possibility, if things really get out of hand.
There's another concern that Putin might have. Putin himself
served two terms as president of Russia, then switched and
became prime minister to stay in power, then switched back
and became president again, arranging to the constitution to
be amended so that he could be president forever.
That, of course, is similar to what Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia. And
not were there massive protests, but Sargsyan was forced to step down
when the army joined the protests. Putin might fear that the Russian
people might copy the Armenian people's example and hold massive
anti-Putin protests, and then have army soldiers join the protests.
If that every happened in Russia, the outcome would be much bloodier
than in Armenia.
Washington Post and Jamestown and Moscow Times and Trend News (Azerbaijan) and Reuters
****
**** Armenian political chaos follows the path of America in the 1960s
****
As I described last week,
Armenia
is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the bloody
conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.
An Awakening era is the time when the first generation that grows up
after the war comes of age, and starts to make itself felt. Their
parents, the traumatized soldiers and other survivors of the war, try
to set rules and impose restrictions so that such a war will never
occur again. The kids in the younger generation, with no personal
memory of the war, rebel against these restrictions, creating
a "generation gap," or a political conflict between generations.
The forced resignation of Serzh Sargsyan might be roughly compared to
the President Lyndon Johnson's forced decision in 1968 not to run for
another term. He had hoped that by stepping down he would encourage
an end to the massive street protests, including some violence.
However, the protests and violence did not end. There were still
several "long, hot summers" to come, there was the violence at the
Democratic National Convention in 1968, there was Woodstock in 1969,
and there was the shootings at Kent State. Finally, the resignation
of Richard Nixon in 1974 was the Awakening climax, because it resolved
the generational conflict in favor of the younger post-war generation,
specifically the Boomers, over the GI Generation that had fought in
the war.
Today we're seeing exactly the same kind of generational conflict in
Armenia. The tens of thousands of young people who protested in the
streets of Yerevan may have won their first victory, but the protests
will continue in other forms for years, and there will be bursts of
violence. There will be no "return to normal" for Armenia for many
years. BBC
Related articles:
- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country (18-Apr-2018)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia. (18-Apr-2008)
- 21-Mar-10 News - 'Day of Anger' anti-Putin protests in Russia (21-Mar-2010)
- Putin becomes president of Russia again, facing harsh new challenges (08-May-2012)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Karen Karapetyan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Kent State, Woodstock
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
