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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North-South Korea summit begins
  • Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
  • North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
  • The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap

****
**** North-South Korea summit begins
****


[Image: g180426b.jpg]
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands in front of Freedom House at Panmunjeom, Friday. (Korea Times)

It was magical. South Korea's president Moon Jae-in shook hands with
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, smiling sweetly at each
other. As if they were euphoric lovers, they held hands and walked
back and forth, crossing back and forth across the line dividing South
and North Korea, in order to prove to the world that all was peace and
light.

It's hard to guess what might be accomplished by this summit meeting,
since the real summit will be held in a few weeks between Donald Trump
and Kim Jong-un. Korea Times

****
**** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
****


When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on
September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that
followed the test itself. Concerns were expressed that the earthquake
was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the
Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been
released. Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had
killed hundreds of North Korean workers.

As we reported last year,
Chinese
geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear
scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear
catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing
large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of
North Korea and northeast China for decades to come.

Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of
Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from
the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration
in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap
did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on
September 3 of last year.

Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration:

<QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring
during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The
thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was
followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ...

North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in
September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not
only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it
was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed
shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot,
or something else? We answer these questions.... According to our
model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of
rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion
nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process
comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock
collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North
Korea's test site."<END QUOTE>


The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The
occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure
beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests."

A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the
site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai
Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border.
South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters

****
**** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
****


As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site"
, North Korea
promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down
Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site. Shutting down the
nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media
that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice
guy, willing to compromise and all that.

Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being
shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe,
according to Chinese scientists. As I wrote at the time, the North
Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's
worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear
weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open
testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other
countries, including Iran.

Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a
negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock
in concessions before the West found out.

The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part
of North Korea's negotiating position. With the approach of the
forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has
said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the
North destroy all its nuclear weapons. Kim had the threat of
reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests. But now
that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear
development, they can never be sure that their developments will work
unless they test them.

However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North
Korea's negotiating position. They can claim that if their nuclear
test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions,
since they're no longer needed. BBC

****
**** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
****


We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends
on politics. So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri
test site at Mount Mantap is still usable.

So let's look at China's motives. China would like to use the North
Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South
Korea. Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear
missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities,
aircraft carries and military bases. China is preparing for a
pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted
to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to
be a distraction when the war begins.

But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the
Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want
any further nuclear tests there. The risk is too great, and a serious
mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades.

Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the
USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final
conclusion that the site is unusable. This ambiguity preserves
the North's negotiating position.

The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors
in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the
Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude:

<QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the
Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future
nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more
pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if
Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option
will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on
Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE>


There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the
motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they
don't want the North to get away with anything. In particular, they
would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible. Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
University of Science and Technology of China, USTC,
Jilin Earthquake Agency, China Earthquake Administration,
Changbai Mountain

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27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Moun - by John J. Xenakis - 04-26-2018, 10:00 PM
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