Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

(04-26-2018, 11:30 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(04-26-2018, 10:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****
**** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
****

When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on
September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that
followed the test itself.  Concerns were expressed that the earthquake
was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the
Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been
released.  Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had
killed hundreds of North Korean workers.

As we reported last year,
Chinese
geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear
scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear
catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing
large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of
North Korea and northeast China for decades to come.

Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of
Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from
the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration
in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap
did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on
September 3 of last year.

Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration:

   <QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring
   during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The
   thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was
   followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ...

   North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in
   September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not
   only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it
   was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed
   shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot,
   or something else? We answer these questions....  According to our
   model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of
   rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion
   nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process
   comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock
   collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North
   Korea's test site."<END QUOTE>

The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The
occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure
beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests."

A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the
site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai
Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border.
South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters

****
**** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
****

As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site"
, North Korea
promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down
Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site.  Shutting down the
nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media
that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice
guy, willing to compromise and all that.

Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being
shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe,
according to Chinese scientists.  As I wrote at the time, the North
Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's
worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear
weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open
testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other
countries, including Iran.

Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a
negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock
in concessions before the West found out.

The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part
of North Korea's negotiating position.  With the approach of the
forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has
said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the
North destroy all its nuclear weapons.  Kim had the threat of
reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests.  But now
that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear
development, they can never be sure that their developments will work
unless they test them.

However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North
Korea's negotiating position.  They can claim that if their nuclear
test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions,
since they're no longer needed.  BBC

****
**** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
****

We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends
on politics.  So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri
test site at Mount Mantap is still usable.

So let's look at China's motives.  China would like to use the North
Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South
Korea.  Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear
missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities,
aircraft carries and military bases.  China is preparing for a
pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted
to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to
be a distraction when the war begins.

But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the
Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want
any further nuclear tests there.  The risk is too great, and a serious
mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades.

Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the
USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final
conclusion that the site is unusable.  This ambiguity preserves
the North's negotiating position.

The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors
in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the
Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude:

   <QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the
   Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future
   nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more
   pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if
   Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option
   will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on
   Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE>

There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the
motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they
don't want the North to get away with anything.  In particular, they
would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible.  Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North

What a Laughable piece of S--t analysis that you've just posted. First You argue that North Korea and China are coordinating with regards to facilitating the North Korean Nuclear and concluded that china is current waging cold war against the US and is gearing up for a Hot war against the US regardless of any diplomatic solution or defusing In Korea. Yet somehow after stating said interpretation of events you conclude the best option is that the US agree to a paper "dismantling" of the North Korean program without actually removing the threat which effectively hands China a diplomatic victory and the US only gets a face saving paper "disarmament". Congratulations John X, you've just advocated abject appeasement.

It is South Korea and the People's Republic of China who want the North Korean nuke program shut down. At this point I give more credit to the People's Republic of China for insisting that a nuclear program of greater immediate danger to China than to anyone else be wound down. Trust or distrust the PRC as you wish, and I don't trust its politics... but danger is danger. If the PRC has its legitimate concerns about a needless peril from a regime long considered an international pariah, then it might win American support on that.

There is always the danger that a North Korean nuke in a missile will cross only one international boundary before a premature explosion. Yes, Chinese lives are precious, too. China distrusts the nuke and ICBM programs of North Korea as much for technical reasons even more than out of fear of an intended attack.

What John Xenakis advocates is anything but appeasement.

Quote:The military option to North Korea is clearly the best option available to the US but Boomers like yourself have political and ideological vested interests that cause them to consistently refuse that choice no matter how good the arguments and evidence for that option is. Globalists have a vested interest in forcibly democratizing China, not curbing Chinese expansion and/or aggression. Boomer globalists need a world war in order to force democracy on both China and Russia, and they need it to force the acquiescence of the American People to globalism under a synthesis created under conditions of total war: an acquiescence that is impossible without an Ideologically Joined total war.

I don't agree with X on many issues, and he might be right for the wrong reasons. But I am going to give the PRC the benefit of the doubt on this. We may all be hypocrites on favoring the lives of our citizens over those of other countries, but if appeasing the PRC is the price for dismantling nuke and missile programs in the PRC, then so be it. Sure, I would love to see China democratize. I would also love to have a million dollars appear in my bank account, too.

As for me -- this Boomer does not want any new 'war to end all wars'. As the late GI science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein said, we need not seek adventure; it will seek us.

Quote:Because To launch a Major War, political leadership needs to have a sense of confidence of superiority over your projected adversary. Boomer globalist strategists Know that if a Nuclear strike on North Korea took Place whatever Chinese confidence of potential victory based on potential low morale of the US would immediately evaporate as events would have proven any such assessments false. China may continue expansionism afterwards but any projections to launch war with the US with a mindset of "we have everything to gain" would have disappeared. The Chinese May still have contingency defense war plans directed against the US afterwards, but any confidence in an aggressive war against the US would have disappeared after a US nuclear strike on North Korea. But boomer globalists would therefore lose their trigger event for WW3 to democratize the planet. For that reason; Our Boomer globalist leaders refuse to nuke North Korea.

(Cheap swipe, Cynic Hero: I suggest that you take a course in freshman composition in your local community college, where such is inexpensive and convenient. Your abuse of capital letters irritates people who consider writing a noble activity).

As I see it, the Chinese are more likely to look at the USA as a market for inexpensive subcompact cars that Ford Motor Company wishes to abandon as an activity in America. Yes, I am satisfied that the PRC would love to transform the DPRK ) which is not at all democratic, ill serves and does not meaningfully represent any part of the Korean people except for the leading ranks of the alleged Workers' Party of the DPRK, and is better described as an absolute monarchy than as a republic) into a puppet state of the PRC. But that would be an improvement just for making North Korea more capitalist.

As we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, we cannot readily impose democracy where it is unwelcome. Sure, we could restore it in countries that had abandoned democracy for fascism after peoples of those countries decided that democracy, however inconvenient it was, was far safer than the tyranny that people thought pointless after it brought economic ruin and national shame. Putin will not rule Russia forever, and when democracy ever comes to China it will stick in a country with a philosophical heritage more like those of Japan and South Korea than those three countries might want to admit.

But now, the United States of America is not a democracy, or is at least a very flawed one. Our government by lobbyists is a new form of dictatorship, and our current President is more despotic than any President that we have ever had -- by far!