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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 28-Apr-18 World View -- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan
  • Russia moves to increase dominance over Caspian Sea

****
**** Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan
****


[Image: g160120c.gif]
Map: The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe

A continuing issue facing the US-led Nato military forces in
Afghanistan is sending supplies to the landlocked country. Since the
war began in 2001, most resupply has been done by shipping to
Pakistan's port in Karachi, and then overland by truck across
Pakistan, through the Khyber Pass, into Afghanistan. This route has
been reliable for the most part, there have been times when political
disagreements between the US and Pakistan have cause Pakistan to close
the Khyber Pass to US military goods.

As a backup, Nato has been developing several Central Asia truck and
rail overland supply routes, such as from Europe through Russia to
Kazakhstan, and then through Uzbekistan to Afghanistan.

Kazakhstan is about to sign an agreement with the US that will permit
Nato forces to substantially increase use of the existing Caspian
Trade Corridor, by shipping through the Aktau and Kuryk ports on the
Caspian Sea, completely bypassing Russia. Nato supplies from Europe
will pass through Turkey and Georgia, through Azerbaijan to the port
at Baku. From there, the supplies will be ferried across the Caspian
Sea to one of the Kazakh ports, and then travel overland by truck
through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, and then by rail to Afghanistan.

According to Kazakh officials, only nonmilitary goods will go through
the ports. Nonetheless, Russian authorities are opposed to this
US-Kazakh deal because it could change the balance of power in the
Caspian Sea, which the Russians consider to be their own back yard.

But since the purpose of the deal is to allow transit of supplies to
the military in Afghanistan, the Russians fear that American soldiers
might be deployed to the ports, and that the ports eventually will
turn into American military bases.

Another reason why Russians oppose the deal is because it gives them
one less level to use against Nato -- blocking goods from transiting
across Russia -- in retaliation for Western sanctions against Russia.

According to one Russian analyst, "Under the current conditions of
American-Russian and traditional American-Iranian conflicts, this [new
US] presence will generate anger both in Moscow and in Tehran."
EurasiaNet and Jamestown and EurAsia Daily

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****
**** Russia moves to increase dominance over Caspian Sea
****


There are five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea -- Iran,
Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. For decades,
they've been unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea
among them. They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be
open to all for commercial shipping and for fishing. However, there
are also large deposits of gas and oil, and large disagreements over
who gets to exploit them.

Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union
and Iran. The Soviets controlled the Caspian Sea, and forced Iran to
follow Soviet policy. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the
individual states began setting up individual independent oil and gas
development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was
taking charge, and used every heavy-handed form of obstruction to
prevent these projects from going forward.

International laws provide for various methods for splitting up
ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.

According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of
rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.

Putin has used these conflicting rules to provoke disagreements among
the littoral states, with the result that in the 27 years since the
disintegration of the Soviet Union no agreement has been reached. But
recent bursts of pragmatism are bringing about agreements that may
unlock some of the oil and gas fields.

Iran and Azerbaijan are adjacent countries along the Caspian Sea
coastline, and attempts by either country to exploit the seabed have
sometimes provoked gunboat diplomacy by the other. But on March 28,
Iran and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding
on joint development of two oil and gas fields in the Caspian
Sea.

Russia and Kazakhstan are also adjacent countries along the Caspian
Sea coastline, and they've also had disputes in the past about
ownership of three fields in the northern part of the Caspian Sea.
But they settled their disputes in 2002, dividing the three oil and
gas fields between them.

It will be more troublesome for Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to reach
agreement. They are not adjacent, but they are opposite each other in
the a region of the Caspian Sea where there are oil and gas fields in
the middle. However, agreement on joint development may be difficult
to reach because both countries' economies are weak, and they would
have to share the multi-billion dollar investment costs for offshore
development projects. And then they would have to share the risk that
oil prices could fall again, making it impossible to recover the money
they invested.

There's one more emerging issue that needs to be highlighted. Readers
may recall that in October 2015, Russia began launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea,

attacking targets in Syria. The cruise missiles were launched from
Russia's Caspian Flotilla, with a home base in Astrakhan, in the
northern edge of the Caspian Sea.

Russia has announced that the flotilla will be moved to Kaspiisk,
Dagestan, near the border with Azerbaijan, and that the number of
officers and sailors assigned to the flotilla will be increased.

This change will increase Russia's dominance over the Caspian Sea.
From Kaspiisk, Russia will be able to exert much more control over
Dagestan and the other North Caucasus provinces. It will also give
Russia more control over the entire Caspian Sea, and provide leverage
to prevent building of east-west pipelines under the Caspian.
Finally, Russia's warships will be able to launch cruise missiles at
Syria much more quickly than in the past. AzerNews (Azerbaijan) and Jamestown and Asia Times and RFE/RL

Related Articles



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Caspian Sea, Iran, Soviet Union,
Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Pakistan, Khyber Pass, Nato, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Syria, Astrakhan, Dagestan, Kaspiisk

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