04-28-2018, 10:42 PM
*** 29-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
****
![[Image: g180428b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180428b.jpg)
The Je Yang camp for Kachin refugees along China's border in Burma (AP)
Some 4,000 ethnic Kachins have been driven from their homes in the
last three weeks by an escalating conflict between Burma's (Myanmar's)
army and the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and are now
sheltering in makeshift shelters in the jungle around nearby villages.
An additional 15,000 people have fled their homes since the beginning
of the year.
There has been a longstanding low-level conflict between Burma's army
and the KIA for several decades, but conflict has severely escalated
since the beginning of this year. The conflict is expected to worsen,
as reports indicate that the army is deploying reinforcements,
including 2,000 infantry troops, fighter aircraft and helicopters.
The Burmese army's fight against the Kachin ethnic group and other
ethnic groups in northern Burma has been eclipsed in the international
news by the ethnic cleansing by the army of ethnic Rohingyas in
Rakhine State. That ethnic cleansing is still in progress.
However, the additional reinforcements that the army is deploying were
probably taken from the troops assigned to the ethnic cleansing
activities in Rakhine State, indicating that Burma's government now
considers the Kachin insurgency to be of an increasing priority.
Democratic Voice of Burma and BBC and AFP and Deutsche Welle
****
**** Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war
****
In 2007, I wrote the article "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter,"
describing anti-government riots and
demonstrations by Buddhist monks. Many people feared a full-scale
civil war, but as I wrote at the time, that wouldn't happen because
only 49 years had passed since the end of the previous crisis civil
war. In the "Brief generational history of Burma" that I included
with that article, I described Burma's last generational crisis war,
1948-58, as a civil war among ethnic groups, with intervention by the
Chinese, with a war climax in 1958 when the army took over power, and
turned power over to a civilian government.
I wrote at that time that a new crisis war would not occur at that
time, but would probably occur within ten years or so, as the
survivors of the previous crisis war disappear.
Well, ten years have passed, and it appears that Burma is entering
a new full-scale crisis civil war, with ethnic cleansing of
the Rohingyas occurring in one place, and an escalating fight
with ethnic groups in the north.
The tipping point into this new generational crisis war (or the
"regeneracy," using the technical term from generational theory) seems
to have occurred in November 2016, when the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA) joined together with other with the militant wings of other
ethnic groups in northern Burma to form the Northern Alliance, whose
members will fight Burma's army together.
The other militant groups are the Ta’ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front
promoting self-determination for the Ta’ang people living in Shan
State, Yunnan and Northern Thailand; the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA), the armed wing of the ethnic Chinese Kokang
ethnic group, living in the northern part of Shan state, along the
border with China; and the Arakan Army (AA), the armed wing of the
Arakan people in Kachin state.
These represent the ethnic groups that fought in the civil war that
climaxed in 1958, and 58 years later in 2016 (right on schedule
according to generational theory), they apparently joined together to
form the Northern Alliance and fight a new civil war. Reuters (21-Nov-2016) and Time (9-Mar-2017) and The Irrawaddy and Foreign Policy
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Northern Alliance,
Kachins, Kachin Independence Army, KIA,
Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA, Arakan Army, AA,
Kokangs, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
- Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war
****
**** Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
****
The Je Yang camp for Kachin refugees along China's border in Burma (AP)
Some 4,000 ethnic Kachins have been driven from their homes in the
last three weeks by an escalating conflict between Burma's (Myanmar's)
army and the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and are now
sheltering in makeshift shelters in the jungle around nearby villages.
An additional 15,000 people have fled their homes since the beginning
of the year.
There has been a longstanding low-level conflict between Burma's army
and the KIA for several decades, but conflict has severely escalated
since the beginning of this year. The conflict is expected to worsen,
as reports indicate that the army is deploying reinforcements,
including 2,000 infantry troops, fighter aircraft and helicopters.
The Burmese army's fight against the Kachin ethnic group and other
ethnic groups in northern Burma has been eclipsed in the international
news by the ethnic cleansing by the army of ethnic Rohingyas in
Rakhine State. That ethnic cleansing is still in progress.
However, the additional reinforcements that the army is deploying were
probably taken from the troops assigned to the ethnic cleansing
activities in Rakhine State, indicating that Burma's government now
considers the Kachin insurgency to be of an increasing priority.
Democratic Voice of Burma and BBC and AFP and Deutsche Welle
****
**** Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war
****
In 2007, I wrote the article "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter,"
describing anti-government riots and
demonstrations by Buddhist monks. Many people feared a full-scale
civil war, but as I wrote at the time, that wouldn't happen because
only 49 years had passed since the end of the previous crisis civil
war. In the "Brief generational history of Burma" that I included
with that article, I described Burma's last generational crisis war,
1948-58, as a civil war among ethnic groups, with intervention by the
Chinese, with a war climax in 1958 when the army took over power, and
turned power over to a civilian government.
I wrote at that time that a new crisis war would not occur at that
time, but would probably occur within ten years or so, as the
survivors of the previous crisis war disappear.
Well, ten years have passed, and it appears that Burma is entering
a new full-scale crisis civil war, with ethnic cleansing of
the Rohingyas occurring in one place, and an escalating fight
with ethnic groups in the north.
The tipping point into this new generational crisis war (or the
"regeneracy," using the technical term from generational theory) seems
to have occurred in November 2016, when the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA) joined together with other with the militant wings of other
ethnic groups in northern Burma to form the Northern Alliance, whose
members will fight Burma's army together.
The other militant groups are the Ta’ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front
promoting self-determination for the Ta’ang people living in Shan
State, Yunnan and Northern Thailand; the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA), the armed wing of the ethnic Chinese Kokang
ethnic group, living in the northern part of Shan state, along the
border with China; and the Arakan Army (AA), the armed wing of the
Arakan people in Kachin state.
These represent the ethnic groups that fought in the civil war that
climaxed in 1958, and 58 years later in 2016 (right on schedule
according to generational theory), they apparently joined together to
form the Northern Alliance and fight a new civil war. Reuters (21-Nov-2016) and Time (9-Mar-2017) and The Irrawaddy and Foreign Policy
Related Articles:
- Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter (26-Sep-2007)
- American aid ships are ordered to leave Burma's (Myanmar's) waters (05-Jun-2008)
- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement (15-Oct-2015)
- China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar) (22-Nov-2016)
- Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Northern Alliance,
Kachins, Kachin Independence Army, KIA,
Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA, Arakan Army, AA,
Kokangs, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
