05-01-2018, 10:52 PM
*** 2-May-18 World View -- Russia confounded by the chaotic popular uprising in Armenia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan
****
![[Image: g180501b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180501b.jpg)
Supporters of Nikol Pashinyan demonstrate in Yerevan (Pravda)
Armenia's political turmoil went into full-scale chaos on Tuesday,
when the governing Republican party, which has a majority in the
parliament, refused to support opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan's bid
to become prime minister, leaving the country with no prime minister
and no obvious alternate candidate.
Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stepped down as prime minister on August
23, in the face of huge street protests led by Pashinyan, and his
threats to shut down the country with nationwide protests and strikes.
( "26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister"
)
After the parliament on Tuesday had hours of acrimonious debate and
then refused to elect Pashinyan as the new prime minister to replace
Sargsyan, there were once again tens of thousands of protesters in
Republic Square in the capital city Yerevan. Pashinyan told the
cheering supporters, "We will block the streets, the airports, the
metro, the railway, everything that can be blocked."
The protests are expected to continue. The parliament will hold
another vote on May 8, and if no prime minister is elected, then the
parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held.
News (Armenia) and
BBC and
Reuters and Bloomberg
****
**** Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else
****
The turmoil in Armenia is of crucial importance to Russia because
Armenia under Serzh Sargsyan was a close ally to Russia and followed
Russia's policy. Russia has an airbase in Armenia, and in 2013,
Armenia chose to join a Russian-led customs union, rather than sign an
association agreement with Armenia.
The rapid collapse last week of the Sargsyan government sends shock
waves through Moscow because of visceral fears that a popular uprising
could similar bring about the collapse of Russia's government, led by
president Vladimir Putin. Those who consider this idea far-fetched
might think back to 1991, when a popular uprising led to the collapse
of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev, and its replacement by a
government led by Boris Yeltsin.
In the last ten years, Russia has used military force in Ukraine and
Georgia in the face of threats of the governments of those
countries to align themselves with the European Union rather than
Russia. Until last month, Armenia was safely on Russia's team,
but now that's no longer certain.
Prior to the election in parliament that rejected his bid
to become prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan gave a speech
outlining his policies, including the following "foreign
policy":
<QUOTE>"If I am elected, Armenia will not make turns in the
foreign policy domain; it will remain a member of the EAEU and the
CSTO. This position does not stem from a person’s taste, but the
logic of the movement that brought victory to the
people. Demanding numerous changes in domestic life, the people
did not and do not demand any change in foreign policy domain. We
considered and consider Russia the strategic ally of Armenia, and
this movement does not pose any threat to the [Russian
Federation].
We will deepen relations with the European Union and the EU member
countries. We will do everything for the [Republic of Armenia]
citizens toward the EU visa regime abolition; we expect to start
negotiations on it in the nearest future. The soonest
implementation of the EU-Armenia agreement stems from our own
interests. The government that I will head will deepen relations
with the US, China, will remain committed to the process of
[Armenian] Genocide recognition; Armenia will continue playing the
role of the pioneer on this matter."<END QUOTE>
Pashinyan's speech could hardly have been reassuring to Russian
officials. But the current situation, where Pashinyan was rejected by
the legislature, and massive protests and demonstrations are
continuing in the streets, can hardly be considered any better.
Jamestown and News (Armenia) and Tass (Russia) and AFP (26-Apr)
****
**** Armenia in a generational Awakening era
****
According to some reports, Russian officials have been caught by
surprise by the rapid collapse of the Serzh Sargsyan government, since
they had expected Sargsyan to have used military force to stop the
protests and remain in power. Perhaps the Russians were thinking of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who stopped similar protests by
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.
For those interested in the theoretical aspects of Generational
Dynamics, it's worth taking a moment to sort out what's happening.
As I described a couple of times,
Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the
bloody conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.
Every generational Awakening era (including the Unraveling era that
follows) is politically torn by a "generation gap" that pits the
traumatized survivors of the preceding crisis war versus their
children, the generations that grow up after the crisis war and have
no personal memories of its horrors and atrocities.
Regular readers know that there's been a great deal of theoretical
development on how these Awakening eras differ, depending on whether
the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country
versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups.
In the former case, the two armies each withdraw from the other
country, and further contact between the populations is done
diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations to live
with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same
villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and
the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level.
In the case of popular protests when the previous crisis war was an
ethnic or tribal civil war, the protests are taken as a sign that the
civil war is beginning again, and the government uses that as an
excuse to use massacres, extrajudicial killings, jailings, torture,
rape and other atrocities on the political opposition. The extreme
example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the worst genocidal
monster and war criminal so far this century. But I've also described
the same phenomenon, with varying levels of violence, with Paul Biya
in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda,
Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in
DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hun Sen in
Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.
But if the last crisis war was an external war, then popular protests
are not viewed as posing a similar sort of threat, and lead to an
"Awakening climax" which is often a bloodless coup. This is what
happened in America when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974, and is what
is happening now in Armenia with the forced resignation of Serzh
Sargsyan.
It's impossible to predict how this political chaos in Armenia will
sort itself out. Right now, it appears that Nikol Pashinyan is so
popular, that one way or another he's going to become prime minister,
after which probably the same mobs that put him into power will turn
against him, and he'll go from being the most popular to being the
most unpopular. The only thing we can be sure of is that the chaos is
going to continue for some time to come, and the only thing that
Russians can do is watch and see what happens. Pravda (Moscow) and Chai Khana (Georgia) and World Policy Institute
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Richard Nixon,
Ukraine, Georgia, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan
- Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else
- Armenia in a generational Awakening era
****
**** Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan
****
Supporters of Nikol Pashinyan demonstrate in Yerevan (Pravda)
Armenia's political turmoil went into full-scale chaos on Tuesday,
when the governing Republican party, which has a majority in the
parliament, refused to support opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan's bid
to become prime minister, leaving the country with no prime minister
and no obvious alternate candidate.
Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stepped down as prime minister on August
23, in the face of huge street protests led by Pashinyan, and his
threats to shut down the country with nationwide protests and strikes.
( "26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister"
)
After the parliament on Tuesday had hours of acrimonious debate and
then refused to elect Pashinyan as the new prime minister to replace
Sargsyan, there were once again tens of thousands of protesters in
Republic Square in the capital city Yerevan. Pashinyan told the
cheering supporters, "We will block the streets, the airports, the
metro, the railway, everything that can be blocked."
The protests are expected to continue. The parliament will hold
another vote on May 8, and if no prime minister is elected, then the
parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held.
News (Armenia) and
BBC and
Reuters and Bloomberg
****
**** Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else
****
The turmoil in Armenia is of crucial importance to Russia because
Armenia under Serzh Sargsyan was a close ally to Russia and followed
Russia's policy. Russia has an airbase in Armenia, and in 2013,
Armenia chose to join a Russian-led customs union, rather than sign an
association agreement with Armenia.
The rapid collapse last week of the Sargsyan government sends shock
waves through Moscow because of visceral fears that a popular uprising
could similar bring about the collapse of Russia's government, led by
president Vladimir Putin. Those who consider this idea far-fetched
might think back to 1991, when a popular uprising led to the collapse
of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev, and its replacement by a
government led by Boris Yeltsin.
In the last ten years, Russia has used military force in Ukraine and
Georgia in the face of threats of the governments of those
countries to align themselves with the European Union rather than
Russia. Until last month, Armenia was safely on Russia's team,
but now that's no longer certain.
Prior to the election in parliament that rejected his bid
to become prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan gave a speech
outlining his policies, including the following "foreign
policy":
<QUOTE>"If I am elected, Armenia will not make turns in the
foreign policy domain; it will remain a member of the EAEU and the
CSTO. This position does not stem from a person’s taste, but the
logic of the movement that brought victory to the
people. Demanding numerous changes in domestic life, the people
did not and do not demand any change in foreign policy domain. We
considered and consider Russia the strategic ally of Armenia, and
this movement does not pose any threat to the [Russian
Federation].
We will deepen relations with the European Union and the EU member
countries. We will do everything for the [Republic of Armenia]
citizens toward the EU visa regime abolition; we expect to start
negotiations on it in the nearest future. The soonest
implementation of the EU-Armenia agreement stems from our own
interests. The government that I will head will deepen relations
with the US, China, will remain committed to the process of
[Armenian] Genocide recognition; Armenia will continue playing the
role of the pioneer on this matter."<END QUOTE>
Pashinyan's speech could hardly have been reassuring to Russian
officials. But the current situation, where Pashinyan was rejected by
the legislature, and massive protests and demonstrations are
continuing in the streets, can hardly be considered any better.
Jamestown and News (Armenia) and Tass (Russia) and AFP (26-Apr)
****
**** Armenia in a generational Awakening era
****
According to some reports, Russian officials have been caught by
surprise by the rapid collapse of the Serzh Sargsyan government, since
they had expected Sargsyan to have used military force to stop the
protests and remain in power. Perhaps the Russians were thinking of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who stopped similar protests by
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.
For those interested in the theoretical aspects of Generational
Dynamics, it's worth taking a moment to sort out what's happening.
As I described a couple of times,
Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the
bloody conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.
Every generational Awakening era (including the Unraveling era that
follows) is politically torn by a "generation gap" that pits the
traumatized survivors of the preceding crisis war versus their
children, the generations that grow up after the crisis war and have
no personal memories of its horrors and atrocities.
Regular readers know that there's been a great deal of theoretical
development on how these Awakening eras differ, depending on whether
the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country
versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups.
In the former case, the two armies each withdraw from the other
country, and further contact between the populations is done
diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations to live
with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same
villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and
the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level.
In the case of popular protests when the previous crisis war was an
ethnic or tribal civil war, the protests are taken as a sign that the
civil war is beginning again, and the government uses that as an
excuse to use massacres, extrajudicial killings, jailings, torture,
rape and other atrocities on the political opposition. The extreme
example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the worst genocidal
monster and war criminal so far this century. But I've also described
the same phenomenon, with varying levels of violence, with Paul Biya
in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda,
Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in
DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hun Sen in
Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.
But if the last crisis war was an external war, then popular protests
are not viewed as posing a similar sort of threat, and lead to an
"Awakening climax" which is often a bloodless coup. This is what
happened in America when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974, and is what
is happening now in Armenia with the forced resignation of Serzh
Sargsyan.
It's impossible to predict how this political chaos in Armenia will
sort itself out. Right now, it appears that Nikol Pashinyan is so
popular, that one way or another he's going to become prime minister,
after which probably the same mobs that put him into power will turn
against him, and he'll go from being the most popular to being the
most unpopular. The only thing we can be sure of is that the chaos is
going to continue for some time to come, and the only thing that
Russians can do is watch and see what happens. Pravda (Moscow) and Chai Khana (Georgia) and World Policy Institute
Related articles:
- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister (26-Apr-2018)
- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country (18-Apr-2018)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli (25-Apr-2015)
- Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards' (04-Sep-2012)
- Sri Lanka declares state of emergency after Buddhist-Muslim violence (07-Mar-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Richard Nixon,
Ukraine, Georgia, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
