05-08-2018, 10:53 PM
*** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
****
**** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
****
![[Image: g171231c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171231c.jpg)
South Koreans watching tv admire Kim Jong-un's highly fashionable haircut
It is true that the barycenter of the world is moving to the east, not
only economically but above all politically. Our politicians would do
well to pay attention to how high-level politics is done in the east,
since they would learn something. The most recent masterful lesson of
international diplomacy comes from the sadly famous demilitarized zone
(DMZ), the scar of the cold war that runs along the 38th parallel and
which divides the Korean peninsula in two.
The dictator Kim Jong-un, considered crazy and bloody until four
months ago, took part in a historic summit in South Korea, still
'enemy' territory, and where neither his father nor his grandfather
ever set foot. He did it with all the honors reserved for a great head
of state. The South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who has spent the
last twenty years to get this meeting, is the country's spokesman.
Meanwhile, Kim has used every political strategy, including the
diplomacy of the Olympics, to get closer to the common goal: the peace
agreement between the two nations.
The peace between these two countries -- which for three thousand
years have been a unique geographical and linguistic expression, a
single culture, a sovereign nation with the same people -- will open
the doors to economic and commercial cooperation. The model will be
that of the old European Common Market: exploiting the economic
interdependencies and the resources of both to modernize the North and
produce well-being throughout the peninsula. The union has the
potential to give life to an economy much stronger than Japan's.
North and South, therefore, have common interests that they can pursue
jointly. The obstacles are many. First of all, even if both have
signed a peace armistice, the two countries are still at war. The
People's Republic of North Korea is a buffer state for China, while
South Korea is a very important US military base in the Pacific. In
short, to get to shake hands on the 38th parallel and plant the tree
of peace the two Korean leaders have had to convince Washington and
Beijing to let them do it.
****
**** Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy
****
If we compare this lesson of international diplomacy with European
post-electoral fiascos -- the last nation to prove incapable of
forming a government on the basis of electoral results is Italy -- and
animosities within the European Union, for example, Brexit, we realize
why the axis of the world is moving to the east. To complete the sad
picture of the decadence of politics in Europe, there are relations of
subjugation with Washington. What about Macron crossing the ocean to
present to Trump the European iron will to go ahead with the agreement
with Iran and then change his mind twenty four hours after landing?
Remarkable is the difference with President Moon (whose wife does not
dress Chanel like the first French and American ladies), Moon is a
politician of substance, who has clear ideas about the future of his
nation, is not a populist.
Of course there is always Angela Merkel who clearly told Trump -- who
continued to bomb the world with twitter triumphalists on the Korean
summit presented as a creation -- not to trust Kim Jong-un. Yes,
Merkel is a clever politician, but she has to play in a team of wives
and has no interlocutor to work with seriously.
Here are some forecasts: Trump and Kim will meet, possibly in
June. The peace agreement between the two leaders will be endorsed by
the White House, at which point they will begin to work at the
ceremony for the signing of the treaty, which will take place before
November 2018, namely the mid-term US elections.
Trump will be credited with all the glory but will Kim and Moon let
him do that? The North Korean dictator seems less inclined than the
South Korean president to stroke Trump's ego. But he should be very
careful, as the US president may walk away from the summit and Kim and
Moon would end up with no deal. But if things go according to plans,
Kim will reiterate the commitment to freeze nuclear warheads and
details of denuclearization will be postponed to another summit, which
will take place in 2019. Meanwhile, North and South Korea will quietly
start to cooperate economically, despite international sanctions.
Southern investors will therefore have priority access to the process
of modernizing the north.
In Europe the bickering on Brexit will not disappear. The tensions
between the right-wing populism of Eastern Europe and Brussels will
increase, risking the implosion of the whole structure. Italy will
most likely revive, but the results will not be better. In short, the
scenarios are not at all positive. The last detail: Kim's haircut will
continue to be more and more fashionable, while Merkel's will be
considered passé.
Loretta Napoleoni is an Italian economist and analyst, and author
of the 2018 book, North Korea: The Country We Love To Hate[b]
[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Loretta Napoleoni, North Korea, South Korea,
Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in, Brexit,
Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
- European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
- Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy
****
**** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
****
South Koreans watching tv admire Kim Jong-un's highly fashionable haircut
It is true that the barycenter of the world is moving to the east, not
only economically but above all politically. Our politicians would do
well to pay attention to how high-level politics is done in the east,
since they would learn something. The most recent masterful lesson of
international diplomacy comes from the sadly famous demilitarized zone
(DMZ), the scar of the cold war that runs along the 38th parallel and
which divides the Korean peninsula in two.
The dictator Kim Jong-un, considered crazy and bloody until four
months ago, took part in a historic summit in South Korea, still
'enemy' territory, and where neither his father nor his grandfather
ever set foot. He did it with all the honors reserved for a great head
of state. The South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who has spent the
last twenty years to get this meeting, is the country's spokesman.
Meanwhile, Kim has used every political strategy, including the
diplomacy of the Olympics, to get closer to the common goal: the peace
agreement between the two nations.
The peace between these two countries -- which for three thousand
years have been a unique geographical and linguistic expression, a
single culture, a sovereign nation with the same people -- will open
the doors to economic and commercial cooperation. The model will be
that of the old European Common Market: exploiting the economic
interdependencies and the resources of both to modernize the North and
produce well-being throughout the peninsula. The union has the
potential to give life to an economy much stronger than Japan's.
North and South, therefore, have common interests that they can pursue
jointly. The obstacles are many. First of all, even if both have
signed a peace armistice, the two countries are still at war. The
People's Republic of North Korea is a buffer state for China, while
South Korea is a very important US military base in the Pacific. In
short, to get to shake hands on the 38th parallel and plant the tree
of peace the two Korean leaders have had to convince Washington and
Beijing to let them do it.
****
**** Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy
****
If we compare this lesson of international diplomacy with European
post-electoral fiascos -- the last nation to prove incapable of
forming a government on the basis of electoral results is Italy -- and
animosities within the European Union, for example, Brexit, we realize
why the axis of the world is moving to the east. To complete the sad
picture of the decadence of politics in Europe, there are relations of
subjugation with Washington. What about Macron crossing the ocean to
present to Trump the European iron will to go ahead with the agreement
with Iran and then change his mind twenty four hours after landing?
Remarkable is the difference with President Moon (whose wife does not
dress Chanel like the first French and American ladies), Moon is a
politician of substance, who has clear ideas about the future of his
nation, is not a populist.
Of course there is always Angela Merkel who clearly told Trump -- who
continued to bomb the world with twitter triumphalists on the Korean
summit presented as a creation -- not to trust Kim Jong-un. Yes,
Merkel is a clever politician, but she has to play in a team of wives
and has no interlocutor to work with seriously.
Here are some forecasts: Trump and Kim will meet, possibly in
June. The peace agreement between the two leaders will be endorsed by
the White House, at which point they will begin to work at the
ceremony for the signing of the treaty, which will take place before
November 2018, namely the mid-term US elections.
Trump will be credited with all the glory but will Kim and Moon let
him do that? The North Korean dictator seems less inclined than the
South Korean president to stroke Trump's ego. But he should be very
careful, as the US president may walk away from the summit and Kim and
Moon would end up with no deal. But if things go according to plans,
Kim will reiterate the commitment to freeze nuclear warheads and
details of denuclearization will be postponed to another summit, which
will take place in 2019. Meanwhile, North and South Korea will quietly
start to cooperate economically, despite international sanctions.
Southern investors will therefore have priority access to the process
of modernizing the north.
In Europe the bickering on Brexit will not disappear. The tensions
between the right-wing populism of Eastern Europe and Brussels will
increase, risking the implosion of the whole structure. Italy will
most likely revive, but the results will not be better. In short, the
scenarios are not at all positive. The last detail: Kim's haircut will
continue to be more and more fashionable, while Merkel's will be
considered passé.
Loretta Napoleoni is an Italian economist and analyst, and author
of the 2018 book, North Korea: The Country We Love To Hate[b]
[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Loretta Napoleoni, North Korea, South Korea,
Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in, Brexit,
Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
