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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recriminations and accusations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North Korea schedules dismantling of nuclear test site as TV ceremony
  • North Korea offers series of theatrical noncommittal gestures
  • The most likely Kim-Trump meeting outcome: Mutual accusations and recriminations

****
**** North Korea schedules dismantling of nuclear test site as TV ceremony
****


[Image: g180512b.jpg]
Ronald Reagan (L) and Mikhail Gorbachev ® leave 1986 summit meeting after it collapses in mutual recriminations and accusations of bad faith and lying (ADST)

North Korea has announced that its Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
located in Mount Mantap, will be dismantled during the period May
23-25, and that international journalists will be able to cover the
dismantling "on the spot," and transmit their reports from a press
center at the site.

This announcement comes just two days after scientists reported that
an examination of satellite images shows that Mount Mantap itself has
collapsed considerably more than has previously been estimated. Using
these images, scientists found that Mount Mantap moved by around 11.5
feet (3.5 meters) and shrank by 1.6 feet (0.5 m). It can't be
determined from the satellite images whether some tunnels have
collapsed, or whether the entire mountain has collapsed.

Nonetheless, what is apparent from numerous reports starting with
North Korea's last nuclear test, on September 3 of last year, is that
Chinese scientists and geologists are telling North Korea not to use
that test site again, because another test could risk a huge nuclear
disaster that would release huge amounts of radiation and nuclear
debris that would spread over large parts of northeastern China, as
well as North Korea.

When North Korea made the initial dismantling announcement, they said
that international journalists and nuclear experts would be permitted
to watch the dismantling. The latest announcement omits mention of
nuclear experts, and says that even the number of journalists will be
limited, suggesting that there's another layer of North Korean
subterfuge in process.

The bottom line is that the dismantling of the test site on May 23-25
is a completely empty gesture, since the site cannot be used again
anyway. KCNA Watch and BBC and Live Science and Washington Post

Related Articles:

****
**** North Korea offers series of theatrical noncommittal gestures
****


Chinese media have been talking about a "dual track" process to
achieve denuclearization. This means that the North Koreans make a
concession and the US makes a concession, and so forth.

China and North Korea are already pressuring the US to ease the strict
sanctions that have been imposed on North Korea, based on the supposed
concessions already made. They are aware that once the sanctions have
been lifted, it will be almost impossible to get international
agreement to re-impose them, even if North Korea reverses any
concessions that it's made. The near impossibility of re-imposing
sanctions has been illustrated in the last week by the international
criticism of the Trump administrations announced re-imposition of
sanctions on Iran.

So the following points are worth noting with regard to the steps that
have already been taken in this "dual track" process to achieve
denuclearization:
  • North Korean media has quoted Kim Jong-un as saying that no
    further tests were needed, since testing had already been successfully
    completed.

  • As described, the dismantling of the nuclear test site is
    meaningless, since it couldn't be used again anyway. As I understand
    it, the North could bore tunnels into another mountain, and quickly
    create a new test site.

  • With big fanfare, Kim Jong-un released three American hostages
    this week. They should never have been abducted in the first place,
    and Kim can easily abduct three more Americans if he doesn't get his
    way.

  • Kim has not agreed to release similarly abducted Japanese and
    South Korean hostages and prisoners of war.

  • Kim Jong-un has been conducting a charm offensive since the Seoul
    olympics games began in January, with singing and dancing girls,
    capped off by a magical meeting between Kim and South Korea's
    president Moon Jae-in.

  • The meeting between Kim and Moon produced a "Panmunjom
    Declaration" that promised peace in our time, but provided no
    concessions.

  • The Panmunjom Declaration said “South and North Korea confirmed
    the common goal of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a
    nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.” However, the word "denuclearization"
    has been used for decades by the North Koreans as including the
    withdrawal of American troops from South Korea and the dissolution of
    the United States-South Korea alliance.

  • The Panmunjom Declaration says nothing about ending development of
    ballistic missiles.

  • North Korea promised to stop nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
    tests until the meeting Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, but development
    is believed to have continued without testing.

  • A series of North Korean leaders -- Kim Il-sung (the grandfather),
    Kim Jong-il (the father), and Kim Jong-un (the child) have starved,
    tortured and brutalized the North Korean people for decades, saying
    that it was all worth it because one day North Korea would be nuclear
    power and would be a great nation, a peer to the United States. North
    Korea will never be a great nation under Kim Jong-un, but it's close
    to being a nuclear power, and there's no possibility that they'll simply
    throw away decades of starvation and torture and dismantle their
    nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles without a war. If Kim
    seriously recommended denuclearization, then in my opinion one of his
    own generals would shoot him dead.

Many of these things are being described by the mainstream media as
concessions by the North Koreans, sometimes with the implication that
Donald Trump should make some concessions in return at the meeting
with Kim. However, Kim and the North Koreans have displayed a great
deal of theatric showmanship, but have not made a single actual
concession. Panmunjom Declaration and Japan Forward

****
**** The most likely Kim-Trump meeting outcome: Mutual accusations and recriminations
****


On October 11, 1986, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev held a summit
meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland. The agenda was mutual reductions in
missile arsenals, and expectations were very high. But then Gorbachev
demanded limitations on Reagan's pet project, the mythical Strategic
Defense Initiative (SDI), which supposedly would use space technology
to provide a "shield" from nuclear attacks. Reagan refused, and the
meeting ended in mutual accusations and recriminations, each accusing
the other of lying and bad faith. Talks did not resume again for more
than a year.

It has been announced that Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will have a
summit meeting on June 12 in Singapore. Expectations for this meeting
are enormously high. The people of South Korea, particularly, are
praying that this will be end of their long 70-year nightmare that
began with the Korean War, and that they'll be reunited with the
families again.

However, Kim is going to demand that some sanctions be lifted
immediately, and Trump is going to demand substantial, verifiable
steps to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program. And while the main
agenda item is "denuclearization," the two sides have completely
different meanings for that term.

In my opinion, the most likely outcome of the June 12 meeting is a
repeat of the outcome of the Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, in that the
meeting will end (or not be held) amidst a flurry of mutual
accusations and recriminations.

After that, there are many possible scenarios. It's possible that
North Korea will continue nuclear weapons development, with or without
testing, and it's possible that the Trump administration will go back
to continuing military options.

As I've been writing for many months now, there's are hard bottom line
positions on both sides, and they haven't changed. Kim is committed
to producing an arsenal of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles aimed at
the United States, and selling that technology to Iran and other rogue
nations. Trump is committed to preventing that from happening.
History.com and Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training and 38 North

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
Panmumjom Declaration, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il,
Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev, Reykjavik Iceland,
Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI

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13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recrim - by John J. Xenakis - 05-12-2018, 10:03 PM
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