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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan
  • Afghan officials blame Iran and Pakistan
  • Afghan government continues to lose control to the Taliban

****
**** Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan
****


[Image: g180515b.jpg]
Afghan security forces respond to the Taliban attacks on Tuesday (Reuters)

It's just the beginning of the Taliban's Spring Fighting Season, and
Afghanistan government forces have apparently been caught completely
by surprise by an overwhelming Taliban attack on Farah City, the
provincial capital of Farah province. Farah province is in western
Afghanistan, on the border with Iran.

Hundreds of Taliban attackers overran several security checkpoints in
coordinated attacks starting at 2 am on Tuesday. Heavily armed
Taliban fighters, using captured Afghan military HUMVEEs and police
pickup trucks, launched the coordinated assault on Farah City
overnight from multiple directions. Afghan security forces have
responded, but had to be backed up by American and Nato warplanes,
including A-10 Warthogs.

A government official claimed that no government building or
organization had fallen to the Taliban, but residents are claiming
that the city is close to total collapse, and government officials
have a history of reporting fake news in these situations. Videos
released on social media show that a number of security forces
vehicles have been torched, and that the Taliban have entered a
building used by the security forces. The clashes are ongoing.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Long War Journal and Business Insider

****
**** Afghan officials blame Iran and Pakistan
****


Afghan officials have long complained that Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), aid the Taliban insurgents in
western Afghanistan in an effort to torpedo construction projects and
undermine stabilization efforts by the US-led coalition in the
region. Unlike in the past, IRGC-affiliated media outlets now openly
express support for the Taliban’s latest territorial gains in western
Afghanistan. Commentary in the IRGC outlets also indicate that Iran’s
support to the Taliban is aimed at expelling U.S. and NATO forces from
Afghanistan, particularly from western Afghan provinces.

Farah is the fourth largest province in Afghanistan, with a population
of 925,000 in 11 districts. According to the US Naval University in
2009, 50 percent of the Farah population is composed of Pashtun
tribes, 45 percent of Tajik and the rest of the population, including
the Diaspora, Hazaras and Baluchs. Middle East Institute and Tasnim News (Iran) (Translation)

****
**** Afghan government continues to lose control to the Taliban
****


Taliban began its Spring Fighting Season in late April, and according
to Afghan officials, the Taliban have carried out over 2,700 attacks
across the country in the first 19 days of the Spring Fighting Season.
In the last week Afghan security forces suffered heavy losses in
clashes against insurgents across the country, so on Sunday the Afghan
interior ministry said that security forces have retreated from some
areas that have high threat levels so as to avoid additional
fatalities.

On the other hand, General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central
Command, said a few days ago:

<QUOTE>"The message I would send to the Taliban is that they
cannot win militarily. The international coalition, led by the
United States, is focused on providing the military pressure, in
conjunction with social pressure and diplomatic pressure that will
force them to come to the table."<END QUOTE>


This is the latest delusional statement from the US military. It's
certainly true that as an anti-government insurgency they cannot win
militarily, but it's equally true that there is no chance whatsoever
to "force them to come to the table."

I've been saying this repeatedly for many years, and the reasons are
just as true today as ever.

As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.

But you don't have to know anything about generational history
to understand what's going on. You just have to understand
that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96,
pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that
the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking
for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that
Nato troops are completely irrelevant.

So the funny thing is that even if Votel's claim that military force
targeting a group of Taliban leaders could "force them to come to the
table," the children of those Taliban leaders will have none of it.
It's possible that most of the Taliban fighting in Farah province
today were just children in school just a few years ago.

However, as I've written in the past, there's a dynamic going on,
where Votel and the American military makes statements that the public
wants to hear, even though they don't contain a word of truth. Votel
understands that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger purpose.
As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to
keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to
maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two
air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases
will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these
circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether
the Taliban are defeated or not. RFE/RL and Tolo News (Afghanistan) and RFE/RL

Related Articles



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Farah City, Farah Province, Spring fighting season,
Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
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16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province i - by John J. Xenakis - 05-15-2018, 10:26 PM
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