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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 17-May-18 World View -- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan
  • Taiwan, in cooperation with the U.S., strengthens defenses against China

****
**** China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan
****


[Image: g180516b.jpg]
Taiwan's frogmen Marines perform close combat drills just a few kilometers from mainland China on the outlying island of Kinmen, Taiwan (AP)

Last week, China conducted an "innovative joint operation" where
Chinese warplanes flew in opposite directions around Taiwan. New
Su-35 fighter jets flew with H-6K strategic bombers south of Taiwan,
and J-11 fights flew with KJ-200 early warning aircraft north of
Taiwan. These operations involved two theatre commands for exercises
that involved early warning systems, detection and assaults.

China's government said Wednesday that the country’s military
exercises around Taiwan are intended as a direct threat to Taiwan,
following any moves toward independence. According to the Chinese
government spokesman:

<QUOTE>"It is a strong warning to Taiwan independence
separatist forces and their activities. It demonstrates our
determination and capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty
and territorial integrity.

[China has the] firm will, full confidence and sufficient
capabilities to block moves toward Taiwan’s formal
independence."<END QUOTE>


China has conducted frequent missions by air force fighters, bombers
and surveillance planes to circle Taiwan. Also, China has repeated
sailed its sole operating aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait.

China is using a "carrot and stick" to deal with Taiwan. The "carrot"
is that China is introducing 31 "preferential policies" for Taiwan, in
the fields of legal rights, education, culture and tourism, with the
objective of charming the Taiwanese people by improving their lives.
China is making it easy for Taiwanese businesses to borrow money and
invest in high-tech enterprises on the mainland. China has provided
internships and jobs for nearly 9,000 Taiwanese youth as of the end of
2017.

Perhaps most important, Taiwanese entrepreneurs and businessmen who
are complaining about low pay and Taiwan are being offered higher
wages and bigger markets on mainland China, resulting in a "brain
drain" in Taiwan.

The "stick" is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military experts say the
balance of power between Taiwan and mainland China has now shifted
decisively in the mainland's favor, and they would overwhelm Taiwan
unless US forces quickly came to Taiwan's rescue. The United States
is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but
it is unclear whether the US would take military action to defend
Taiwan, and have an all-out war with China. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and AP and South China Morning Post and Xinhua
and Reuters (21-Apr) and Reuters (24-Apr)

****
**** Taiwan, in cooperation with the U.S., strengthens defenses against China
****


Last week for the first time, the annual Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business
Forum was hosted in Taiwan, in order to "bring together US and Taiwan
companies to discuss granular challenges of bilateral cooperation in
the defense industry supply chain." The objective is to allow
business executives and government officials from both countries to
discuss defense cooperation in the shipbuilding, cybersecurity, and
aerospace industries.

China, as usual, reacted with fury. Zhu Songling, a professor at the
institute of Taiwan studies in Beijing Union University, that the
event was dangerous, and could lead to war:

<QUOTE>"The deepening US defense cooperation with Taiwan is
an act of gross interference in China's domestic affairs. It's a
very serious matter for the Chinese mainland. Further moves that
promote concrete military exchanges will invoke a strong response
from the mainland, even prompt the Chinese mainland to use
non-peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan question."<END QUOTE>


A particular worry for the Taiwanese are China's J-20 stealth fighter
jets. These are not detectable using ordinary radar, and if J-20s
were among the warplanes circling Taiwan last week, Taiwan's military
was not aware of it.

Taiwan is developing, for operational testing this year, and with mass
production and deployment expected by 2020, the P01-180514-pic1BA
mobile passive radar system developed by the island’s Chungshan
Institute of Science and Technology. This system would be able to
detect, track and lock on to targets at long range.

Finally, Taiwan scheduled its own military drills late in April.
These drills simulate repelling an invading force, emergency repairs
of a major airbase and using civilian-operated drones as part of
military exercises. The descriptions of these drills do not mention
China, but instead refer to "offensive forces invading Taiwan."
The Diplomat and Global Times (Beijing, 8-May) and Asia Times

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China,
Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business Forum, Zhu Songling

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17-May-18 World View -- China says that its military exercises are intended to threat - by John J. Xenakis - 05-16-2018, 10:09 PM
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