05-20-2018, 10:18 PM
*** 21-May-18 World View -- Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
****
![[Image: g180520b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180520b.jpg)
Two women bid farewell to their deceased families on March 24, before fleeing Ghouta for Idlib province (Syria Deeply)
The army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is in the final weeks of
regaining control of areas around Damascus that it lost to opposition
forces, mainly in the 2013-14 time frame to the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ISIS was composed mainly of
foreign fighters that had come from over 80 to fight Bashar al-Assad,
and they were opposed not only by the al-Assad regime but also by
local Syrian anti-Assad militias. Among these Syrian anti-Assad
militias are the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They
also include "Jaysh al-Islam" or "Army of Islam."
Al-Assad has used the same methods to take control of Eastern Aleppo a
year ago, and Eastern Ghouta and Douma in the last few months.
There's massive bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of homes,
hospitals, schools and marketing, particularly targeting women and
children. Because many people, especially women and children, hide
out in basements from the bombs, al-Assad drops barrel bombs
containing chlorine. Since chlorine is heavier than air, it drifts
down into the basements and forces the women and children into the
streets, where al-Assad's bombs can kill many of them all at once. In
addition, al-Assad has used Sarin gas for mass slaughter on occasions.
After several months of this bombardment, international pressure has
caused al-Assad to agree to allow the anti-Assad militias to give up
their weapons, and flee the violence along with their families by
traveling to Idlib province in northwestern Syria along the border
with Turkey.
Tens of thousands of refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta have traveled to
Idlib province, and Idlib province is now a smoking cauldron. There
are multiple competing militias all across the province, some of them
moderate, and some al-Qaeda linked. New militias are being formed all
the time, as tensions increase because of overcrowding. Some of the
militias get along with each other, and in other cases they fight and
kill each other.
Now that al-Assad is finishing up in Ghouta, he's beginning to turn
his attention to Idlib province, where he plans to take control in
the same way. But while Aleppo and Ghouta each started with about
300,000-400,000 people, Idlib has 2.5 million people. Furthermore,
while Idlib was the location to which families fled from violence,
there's no place else to go to escape Idlib.
If, as seems likely, al-Assad begins to use missiles, barrel bombs,
chlorine and Sarin gas on women and children in Idlib, there will
humanitarian catastrophe several times worse than we've seen in Ghouta
or Aleppo. Syria Deeply (29-Mar) and Enab Baladi (10-May) and United Nations and
TRT World (Turkey)
****
**** Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province
****
Turkey is responsible for enforcing a ceasefire in Idlib province,
under the terms of agreements from the "Astana peace process," a
series of meetings that took place in Astana Kazakhstan between
Turkey, Russia and Iran. Those meetings defined four "de-escalation
zones," and the participants are responsible for enforcing a ceasefire
in them.
The whole Astana agreement about de-escalation zones has turned out to
be a big joke. Not only did Russia and Iran not make any attempt to
enforce a ceasefire in the de-escalation zones they were responsible
for, they actually did the opposite. Russia, in particular, was
particularly bloody in its warplane attacks on civilians in
de-escalation zones. Bashar al-Assad has already begun bombing in the
Idlib de-escalation zone. The whole de-escalation zone plan has
proven to be a farce and a lie.
However, Turkey claims it will enforce a ceasefire in Idlib province,
which is the de-escalation zone that it is responsible for. Turkey
has been setting up observation posts within Idlib province, from
which the ceasefire can be monitored. Turkey set up its 12th and
final observation posts on Wednesday of last week.
Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week warned the Syrian
government not to attack Idlib province, since any such attack will
lead to a "catastrophe":
<QUOTE>"Currently the most important issue is for the
ceasefire not be violated in Syria. If this is achieved, political
settlement will become closer. There are many fragmented terror
groups. Our intelligence service and the General Staff are dealing
with the matter. We have achieved certain results. If the Syrian
regime launches an attack tomorrow under the pretext of fighting
against terrorists, it will be a catastrophe. This is why we are
monitoring the situation and have established our observation
posts."<END QUOTE>
So, Cavusoglu is saying that a Syrian attack will be a "catastrophe,"
but he doesn't say that anything will be done in response to
such an attack.
In fact, each of these 12 observation posts consists of a few tanks
and a few Turkish soldiers. The sites are typically on the top of a
hill, so that as much countryside as possible can be observed, but
it's clear that Turkish forces can do nothing to stop fighting among
the local militias, or to prevent Syrian or Russian bombing with
Idlib. All they can do is "observe." Anadolu and Middle East Eye and Sputnik (Moscow)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ghouta, Idlib province Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, Army of Islam,
Astana, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Mevlut Cavusoglu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
- Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province
****
**** Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
****
Two women bid farewell to their deceased families on March 24, before fleeing Ghouta for Idlib province (Syria Deeply)
The army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is in the final weeks of
regaining control of areas around Damascus that it lost to opposition
forces, mainly in the 2013-14 time frame to the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ISIS was composed mainly of
foreign fighters that had come from over 80 to fight Bashar al-Assad,
and they were opposed not only by the al-Assad regime but also by
local Syrian anti-Assad militias. Among these Syrian anti-Assad
militias are the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They
also include "Jaysh al-Islam" or "Army of Islam."
Al-Assad has used the same methods to take control of Eastern Aleppo a
year ago, and Eastern Ghouta and Douma in the last few months.
There's massive bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of homes,
hospitals, schools and marketing, particularly targeting women and
children. Because many people, especially women and children, hide
out in basements from the bombs, al-Assad drops barrel bombs
containing chlorine. Since chlorine is heavier than air, it drifts
down into the basements and forces the women and children into the
streets, where al-Assad's bombs can kill many of them all at once. In
addition, al-Assad has used Sarin gas for mass slaughter on occasions.
After several months of this bombardment, international pressure has
caused al-Assad to agree to allow the anti-Assad militias to give up
their weapons, and flee the violence along with their families by
traveling to Idlib province in northwestern Syria along the border
with Turkey.
Tens of thousands of refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta have traveled to
Idlib province, and Idlib province is now a smoking cauldron. There
are multiple competing militias all across the province, some of them
moderate, and some al-Qaeda linked. New militias are being formed all
the time, as tensions increase because of overcrowding. Some of the
militias get along with each other, and in other cases they fight and
kill each other.
Now that al-Assad is finishing up in Ghouta, he's beginning to turn
his attention to Idlib province, where he plans to take control in
the same way. But while Aleppo and Ghouta each started with about
300,000-400,000 people, Idlib has 2.5 million people. Furthermore,
while Idlib was the location to which families fled from violence,
there's no place else to go to escape Idlib.
If, as seems likely, al-Assad begins to use missiles, barrel bombs,
chlorine and Sarin gas on women and children in Idlib, there will
humanitarian catastrophe several times worse than we've seen in Ghouta
or Aleppo. Syria Deeply (29-Mar) and Enab Baladi (10-May) and United Nations and
TRT World (Turkey)
****
**** Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province
****
Turkey is responsible for enforcing a ceasefire in Idlib province,
under the terms of agreements from the "Astana peace process," a
series of meetings that took place in Astana Kazakhstan between
Turkey, Russia and Iran. Those meetings defined four "de-escalation
zones," and the participants are responsible for enforcing a ceasefire
in them.
The whole Astana agreement about de-escalation zones has turned out to
be a big joke. Not only did Russia and Iran not make any attempt to
enforce a ceasefire in the de-escalation zones they were responsible
for, they actually did the opposite. Russia, in particular, was
particularly bloody in its warplane attacks on civilians in
de-escalation zones. Bashar al-Assad has already begun bombing in the
Idlib de-escalation zone. The whole de-escalation zone plan has
proven to be a farce and a lie.
However, Turkey claims it will enforce a ceasefire in Idlib province,
which is the de-escalation zone that it is responsible for. Turkey
has been setting up observation posts within Idlib province, from
which the ceasefire can be monitored. Turkey set up its 12th and
final observation posts on Wednesday of last week.
Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week warned the Syrian
government not to attack Idlib province, since any such attack will
lead to a "catastrophe":
<QUOTE>"Currently the most important issue is for the
ceasefire not be violated in Syria. If this is achieved, political
settlement will become closer. There are many fragmented terror
groups. Our intelligence service and the General Staff are dealing
with the matter. We have achieved certain results. If the Syrian
regime launches an attack tomorrow under the pretext of fighting
against terrorists, it will be a catastrophe. This is why we are
monitoring the situation and have established our observation
posts."<END QUOTE>
So, Cavusoglu is saying that a Syrian attack will be a "catastrophe,"
but he doesn't say that anything will be done in response to
such an attack.
In fact, each of these 12 observation posts consists of a few tanks
and a few Turkish soldiers. The sites are typically on the top of a
hill, so that as much countryside as possible can be observed, but
it's clear that Turkish forces can do nothing to stop fighting among
the local militias, or to prevent Syrian or Russian bombing with
Idlib. All they can do is "observe." Anadolu and Middle East Eye and Sputnik (Moscow)
Related Articles
- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria (20-Jan-2018)
- Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province (15-Oct-2017)
- Terrorist bombings in Damascus, airstrikes in Idlib, break Syria's ceasefire (16-Mar-2017)
- U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria (13-Oct-2012)
- Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ghouta, Idlib province Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, Army of Islam,
Astana, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Mevlut Cavusoglu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
