05-21-2018, 10:51 PM
*** 22-May-18 World View -- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
****
![[Image: g070131.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g070131.jpg)
From 2007: Boys! Boys! Boys! Chinese maternity ward: Five boys (white) and three girls (pink) (CNN)
Since the 1979, China has attempted to control the size of its
population by adopting a "one-child policy" which limited the number
of children that a couple could have to just one.
Now the government in Beijing is realizing that this is a demographic
disaster in two ways. First, China's population is aging rapidly, and
pension payments are not keeping up. Second, since parents wanted to
have a son more than a daughter, there's a huge gender imbalance. Out
of China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females
Now China is considering removing all limits to birth. The new rules
will take effect at the end of this year or in 2019. This
announcement has the feeling of a move of desperation. The one-child
policy was reformed in 2013, when China announced that couples where
one parent is an only child would be allowed to have a second child.
When that policy failed miserably, China announced in October 2015
that all couples would be permitted to have two children.
Even that change had almost no effect at all. In Beijing, for
example, just 6.7% of those eligible applied to have a second child.
Couples are complaining that they can barely afford the costs of
raising one child, so they don't want to risk the financial burden of
a second child.
To alleviate the financial burdens, China's State Council proposed
measures ranging from taxation incentives to introducing paternity
leave to boost birth rate, but demographic experts said the cost would
be huge.
China's birth rate has been dipping below the "replacement level,"
necessary to keep the population growing. As things stand, China's
population will peak at about 1.45 billion in 2030. Furthermore, it's
workforce will age to the point where those 45-69 will account for
over 1/3 of the population.
China's president Xi Jinping has promised to build a world-class
military force. His plans face many serious problems, and one of the
most serious is that China's youth in the 2020s will be too busy
producing food and medicines for any aging population. Bloomberg and South China Morning Post (26-Jan-2018) and Bloomberg (26-Jun-2017)
****
**** China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous
****
There are 114 boys born for every 100 girls in China. In rural China,
the figure is even greater, with 130 boys for every 100 girls. Out of
China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females.
On average in the world, humans give birth to 103 boys for every 100
girls. The number of boys is greater since men are more likely than
women to be killed in war. But 114 to 100 is not expected.
Theoretically, the one-child policy should not affect the gender ratio
at all. If you're going to restrict the number of births, then
theoretically you would restrict the births of boys and girls equally.
But that's not what happened in China. If a woman was to be
restricted to having just one child, then she and her husband often
wanted that child to be a boy, rather than a girl, since a boy would
be able to support his parents as they grew older.
Female infanticide increased when the one-child policy came into
effect, taking advantage of a loophole that if your one child died,
then you were allowed to have another child. Ultrasound tests became
generally available in the 1980s, and although they were banned in
1994, women still were able to find them, and abort a baby if it was a
girl. This created the gender imbalance.
The disastrous consequences of the one-child policy are now being felt
today, as the children who were born in the 1980s-90s are coming of
age. Millions of men are unable to find girlfriends and wives, which
creates not only a loneliness problem, but also a risk to the
stability of society. If there are too few girls, then they're likely
to be tempted into prostitution, or to be abducted and sold for human
trafficking.
China is not alone in this situation. Birth rates have been falling
in countries around the world. In the United States, the fertility
rate has fallen to a historic low. The trend is being driven by a
decline in birthrates for teens and 20-somethings. The birthrate for
women in their 30s and 40s increased — but not enough to make up for
the lower numbers in their younger peers.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is
the reflection of the baby boom that occurred at the end of World War
II. Women were reluctant to have children during the Great Depression
and WW II, but when the war ended, there was an explosion of births,
giving rise to what demographers call the Baby Boom generation.
Today we're seeing a situation where there's a lot of anxiety about
the future. There's been a financial crisis, there are multiple wars
in progress in the Mideast, and war with North Korea and China is on
the horizon. Many women do not wish to have a baby under these
circumstances, so we're seeing a drop in fertility rate. But after
the next world war ends, then we'll see a new baby boom. Washington Post and Reuters and Time (27-July-2009) and National Geographic (13-Nov-2015) and Washington Post (30-June-2017)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, one-child policy, Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
- China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous
****
**** China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
****
From 2007: Boys! Boys! Boys! Chinese maternity ward: Five boys (white) and three girls (pink) (CNN)
Since the 1979, China has attempted to control the size of its
population by adopting a "one-child policy" which limited the number
of children that a couple could have to just one.
Now the government in Beijing is realizing that this is a demographic
disaster in two ways. First, China's population is aging rapidly, and
pension payments are not keeping up. Second, since parents wanted to
have a son more than a daughter, there's a huge gender imbalance. Out
of China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females
Now China is considering removing all limits to birth. The new rules
will take effect at the end of this year or in 2019. This
announcement has the feeling of a move of desperation. The one-child
policy was reformed in 2013, when China announced that couples where
one parent is an only child would be allowed to have a second child.
When that policy failed miserably, China announced in October 2015
that all couples would be permitted to have two children.
Even that change had almost no effect at all. In Beijing, for
example, just 6.7% of those eligible applied to have a second child.
Couples are complaining that they can barely afford the costs of
raising one child, so they don't want to risk the financial burden of
a second child.
To alleviate the financial burdens, China's State Council proposed
measures ranging from taxation incentives to introducing paternity
leave to boost birth rate, but demographic experts said the cost would
be huge.
China's birth rate has been dipping below the "replacement level,"
necessary to keep the population growing. As things stand, China's
population will peak at about 1.45 billion in 2030. Furthermore, it's
workforce will age to the point where those 45-69 will account for
over 1/3 of the population.
China's president Xi Jinping has promised to build a world-class
military force. His plans face many serious problems, and one of the
most serious is that China's youth in the 2020s will be too busy
producing food and medicines for any aging population. Bloomberg and South China Morning Post (26-Jan-2018) and Bloomberg (26-Jun-2017)
****
**** China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous
****
There are 114 boys born for every 100 girls in China. In rural China,
the figure is even greater, with 130 boys for every 100 girls. Out of
China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females.
On average in the world, humans give birth to 103 boys for every 100
girls. The number of boys is greater since men are more likely than
women to be killed in war. But 114 to 100 is not expected.
Theoretically, the one-child policy should not affect the gender ratio
at all. If you're going to restrict the number of births, then
theoretically you would restrict the births of boys and girls equally.
But that's not what happened in China. If a woman was to be
restricted to having just one child, then she and her husband often
wanted that child to be a boy, rather than a girl, since a boy would
be able to support his parents as they grew older.
Female infanticide increased when the one-child policy came into
effect, taking advantage of a loophole that if your one child died,
then you were allowed to have another child. Ultrasound tests became
generally available in the 1980s, and although they were banned in
1994, women still were able to find them, and abort a baby if it was a
girl. This created the gender imbalance.
The disastrous consequences of the one-child policy are now being felt
today, as the children who were born in the 1980s-90s are coming of
age. Millions of men are unable to find girlfriends and wives, which
creates not only a loneliness problem, but also a risk to the
stability of society. If there are too few girls, then they're likely
to be tempted into prostitution, or to be abducted and sold for human
trafficking.
China is not alone in this situation. Birth rates have been falling
in countries around the world. In the United States, the fertility
rate has fallen to a historic low. The trend is being driven by a
decline in birthrates for teens and 20-somethings. The birthrate for
women in their 30s and 40s increased — but not enough to make up for
the lower numbers in their younger peers.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is
the reflection of the baby boom that occurred at the end of World War
II. Women were reluctant to have children during the Great Depression
and WW II, but when the war ended, there was an explosion of births,
giving rise to what demographers call the Baby Boom generation.
Today we're seeing a situation where there's a lot of anxiety about
the future. There's been a financial crisis, there are multiple wars
in progress in the Mideast, and war with North Korea and China is on
the horizon. Many women do not wish to have a baby under these
circumstances, so we're seeing a drop in fertility rate. But after
the next world war ends, then we'll see a new baby boom. Washington Post and Reuters and Time (27-July-2009) and National Geographic (13-Nov-2015) and Washington Post (30-June-2017)
Related Articles:
- China's end of one-child policy doesn't dent Vietnamese wife trade (18-Nov-2013)
- Chinese peasants use fertility drugs to get around 'one-child' policy (26-May-2007)
- A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster (17-Nov-2008)
- Boys, boys, boys! China is running out of girls. (01-Feb-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, one-child policy, Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
