06-05-2018, 10:12 PM
*** 6-Jun-18 World View -- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
****
![[Image: g180605b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180605b.jpg)
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmedat (Getty)
Ethiopia on Tuesday lifted a state of emergency two months early. The
state of emergency had been imposed in February, in response to riots
and demonstrations by millions of people, mostly in Ethiopia's Oromia
region. The state of emergency forbids unauthorized demonstrations or
the distribution of politically sensitive material, and permits
politically motivated arrests without charge.
The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a
market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the
population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in
marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants
in villages throughout the country. They have succeeded in
marginalizing the Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of
Ethiopia's population, and the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises
another 27%. Since late 2015, massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, later spreading to the neighboring Amhara
region, left hundreds dead and resulted in tens of thousands of
arrests.
In a major break with tradition, the Tigrays in April of this year
permitted the selection of Abiy Ahmedat, 42, an Oromo leader, to be
prime minister and leader of the governing coalition, in the hope of
ending the chaos and bloodshed.
The early termination of the state of emergency is thought to be a
positive sign that the situation is stabilizing, and that the reforms
being implemented by Abiy are working. It's also being touted as an
opportunity for investors to begin once again exploring investment
opportunities in Ethiopia.
Since taking office, Abiy has visited major cities across Ethiopia,
and appealed to anti-government protesters to give his administration
time to work. He has also continued a campaign of releasing jailed
dissidents. Officials hope that his reform policies will end the
protests permanently.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's almost
impossible that the mass protests will be permanently ended. Ethiopia
is in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the
1960s, or like Iran today, when mass protests are a frequent feature.
Mass protests can end temporarily, or be suppressed by violence from
the security forces, but they return.
Furthermore, whether protests by the Oromos may have temporarily
ended, there are reports that violent attacks are still continuing
against the ethnic Ahmaras. The Nation (Kenya) and CNBC and Addis (Ababa) Standard and TRT World (Turkey)
****
**** In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea
****
Just hours after Ethiopia lifted the state of emergency on Tuesday,
the government took a major surprise step by announcing that it would
fully accept the terms of a peace agreement with Eritrea.
In 1998, a border war broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This
was a non-crisis war, with a quality very similar to World War I,
where trenches were dug, mines were laid, and bodies of dead soldiers
were strewn about. Of the 400,000 men who fought on both sides,
50,000 soldiers died.
A peace deal in 2000 ended the two-year border war, but it was not
fully implemented. Tuesday's announcement says that Ethiopia, for the
first time, accepts the terms of the 2002 border commission report.
The report awarded disputed territories, including the town of Badme,
to Eritrea.
The border war had begun in the May 6, 1998, in a battle for control
of the border town of Badme. This town is described as nothing but a
"humble, dusty market town," with no oil, no diamonds, and no apparent
value, exception emotional. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia wanted the
town, and at the time the resulting war was described as "two bald men
fighting over a comb."
By accepting the agreement, Ethiopia will have to withdraw its
occupying forces from all territories awarded to Eritrea, including
the flashpoint town, Badme. Ethiopia also called on Eritrea to
reciprocate the decision and work toward bringing a lasting peace
between the people of the two countries.
As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea
, Ethiopia is a
Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. The two
countries were Italian colonies in the 1800s, and again in the late
1930s as "Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from
Ethiopia in 1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war. It's very
unlikely that there will be lasting peace. Addis (Ababa) Standard and BBC and Al-Jazeera and BBC
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Oromia, Tigrays, Amharas,
Abiy Ahmedat, Eritrea, Badme, Italy, Italian East Africa
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea
****
**** Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
****
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmedat (Getty)
Ethiopia on Tuesday lifted a state of emergency two months early. The
state of emergency had been imposed in February, in response to riots
and demonstrations by millions of people, mostly in Ethiopia's Oromia
region. The state of emergency forbids unauthorized demonstrations or
the distribution of politically sensitive material, and permits
politically motivated arrests without charge.
The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a
market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the
population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in
marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants
in villages throughout the country. They have succeeded in
marginalizing the Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of
Ethiopia's population, and the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises
another 27%. Since late 2015, massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, later spreading to the neighboring Amhara
region, left hundreds dead and resulted in tens of thousands of
arrests.
In a major break with tradition, the Tigrays in April of this year
permitted the selection of Abiy Ahmedat, 42, an Oromo leader, to be
prime minister and leader of the governing coalition, in the hope of
ending the chaos and bloodshed.
The early termination of the state of emergency is thought to be a
positive sign that the situation is stabilizing, and that the reforms
being implemented by Abiy are working. It's also being touted as an
opportunity for investors to begin once again exploring investment
opportunities in Ethiopia.
Since taking office, Abiy has visited major cities across Ethiopia,
and appealed to anti-government protesters to give his administration
time to work. He has also continued a campaign of releasing jailed
dissidents. Officials hope that his reform policies will end the
protests permanently.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's almost
impossible that the mass protests will be permanently ended. Ethiopia
is in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the
1960s, or like Iran today, when mass protests are a frequent feature.
Mass protests can end temporarily, or be suppressed by violence from
the security forces, but they return.
Furthermore, whether protests by the Oromos may have temporarily
ended, there are reports that violent attacks are still continuing
against the ethnic Ahmaras. The Nation (Kenya) and CNBC and Addis (Ababa) Standard and TRT World (Turkey)
****
**** In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea
****
Just hours after Ethiopia lifted the state of emergency on Tuesday,
the government took a major surprise step by announcing that it would
fully accept the terms of a peace agreement with Eritrea.
In 1998, a border war broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This
was a non-crisis war, with a quality very similar to World War I,
where trenches were dug, mines were laid, and bodies of dead soldiers
were strewn about. Of the 400,000 men who fought on both sides,
50,000 soldiers died.
A peace deal in 2000 ended the two-year border war, but it was not
fully implemented. Tuesday's announcement says that Ethiopia, for the
first time, accepts the terms of the 2002 border commission report.
The report awarded disputed territories, including the town of Badme,
to Eritrea.
The border war had begun in the May 6, 1998, in a battle for control
of the border town of Badme. This town is described as nothing but a
"humble, dusty market town," with no oil, no diamonds, and no apparent
value, exception emotional. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia wanted the
town, and at the time the resulting war was described as "two bald men
fighting over a comb."
By accepting the agreement, Ethiopia will have to withdraw its
occupying forces from all territories awarded to Eritrea, including
the flashpoint town, Badme. Ethiopia also called on Eritrea to
reciprocate the decision and work toward bringing a lasting peace
between the people of the two countries.
As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea
, Ethiopia is a
Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. The two
countries were Italian colonies in the 1800s, and again in the late
1930s as "Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from
Ethiopia in 1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war. It's very
unlikely that there will be lasting peace. Addis (Ababa) Standard and BBC and Al-Jazeera and BBC
Related Articles:
- Ethiopia chooses an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confrontation with the courts (30-Mar-2018)
- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
- Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war (14-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Oromia, Tigrays, Amharas,
Abiy Ahmedat, Eritrea, Badme, Italy, Italian East Africa
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
