07-05-2018, 10:52 PM
*** 6-Jul-18 World View -- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened
****
![[Image: g180705b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180705b.jpg)
Kim Jong-un makes a big show of taking notes at a factory in this North Korean media photo
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headed to North Korea for another
meeting with Kim Jong-un on Thursday, amid reports that sanctions will
be softened, either by the US or by China.
According to a Japanese report on a meeting last week in Beijing
between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and China's president Xi
Jinping, Kim asked Xi to help end sanctions targeting North Korea.
The report quotes Kim as telling Xi:
<QUOTE>"We are feeling great pain due to economic
sanctions. Now that we have concluded the US-North Korea summit in
success, I want (China) to work toward early lifting of the
sanctions."<END QUOTE>
According to the report, Xi said that he would do his "utmost" to
satisfy the request.
However, since the June 12 summit meeting between Kim and president
Donald Trump, there has been no evidence that North Korea intends to
keep its promise to denuclearize.
At the same time, there were reports last week, based on satellite
imagery, that North Korea has been rapidly building new
infrastructure at its Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center,
where plutonium for nuclear weapons is produced.
Since China has always been North Korea's main trading partner, China
has had to take responsibility for implementing many of the sanctions.
However, there have been reports in recent weeks that China has
already partially weakened its own enforcement of the sanctions.
Some analysts are claiming that Trump has already given up a lot by
agreeing to cancel the joint military drills with South Korea, without
getting anything in the return from the North.
The State Dept. on Thursday denied that it has softened its approach
to North Korea denuclearization. According to State Department
spokesman Heather Nauert:
<QUOTE>Nothing could be further from the truth. Our policy
toward North Korea has not changed.
We are committed to a denuclearized North Korea and Secretary
Pompeo looks forward to continuing his consultations with North
Korean leaders to follow up on the commitments made at the
Singapore summit."<END QUOTE>
Many people, including myself, are skeptical that Kim Jong-un has any
intention at all of denuclearizing. The purpose of Pompeo's current
trip is to get some specific commitments. According to Pompeo, "On
this trip I’m seeking to fill in some details on those commitments and
continue the momentum toward implementation of what the two leaders
promised each other and the world." AFP (1-July) and Reuters and 38 North (26-June)
and Joongang Daily (Seoul)
****
**** Pompeo's visit will test Trump's negotiating strategy
****
The reality of the situation is that the negotiations could break down
very quickly, and we could very quickly be as close to war as we were
in January, before Kim Jong-un's charm offensive at the Seoul
Olympics.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.
North Korea is said to be asking for "staged denuclearization." This
means that North Korea and the US alternate in making concessions on a
step by step basis, with the US removing each sanction in return for
North Korea taking a denuclearization step.
If this is Kim's strategy, it doesn't seem that he's following it.
The satellite imagery that shows infrastructure development at the
Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility cannot be a surprise to Kim. The
North would have been aware that the infrastructure changes would be
detected by satellite imagery, and it's therefore reasonably to
conclude that Kim wanted this development to be made public, perhaps
as a warning to the US that unless concessions are made rapidly, the
North will continue developing nuclear weapons.
According to reports, Pompeo is going to press Kim to provide a
complete list of all nuclear and ballistic missile production sites,
and a timetable for shutting them down. If, as expected, Kim refuses
to produce such a list, then there might be a major confrontation, or
they may kick the can down the road to a later meeting.
Trump said on Thursday,
<QUOTE>"I really believe that he sees a different future for
North Korea. I hope that’s true. If that’s not true, we’ll go back
to the other way."<END QUOTE>
In other words, the North Korean situation could blow up into a full
"crisis" again for the first time in months. The real disaster would
be if Trump gives in and reduces sanctions, getting nothing in return.
Korea Times and Channel News Asia
Related Articles:
****
**** Commentary: The US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports
****
The US has gone ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports, as of 12:01 am
on Friday.
China's statements in response to these tariffs have been getting
increasingly angry in tone. The Chinese appear to be infuriated and
humiliated by the tariffs, much more strongly that Europe, Canada or
Mexico.
If you're looking for a historical analogy, one place where you might
start is the sanctions that the US imposed on Japan on July 24, 1941.
The sanctions were in retaliation for Japanese occupation of French
Indo-China (Vietnam). Four and one-half months later, on December 7,
1941, Japan's bombers attacked Pearl Harbor. History.com
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mike Pompeo,
China, Xi Jinping, Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened
- Pompeo's visit will test Trump's negotiating strategy
- Commentary: The US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports
****
**** Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened
****
Kim Jong-un makes a big show of taking notes at a factory in this North Korean media photo
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headed to North Korea for another
meeting with Kim Jong-un on Thursday, amid reports that sanctions will
be softened, either by the US or by China.
According to a Japanese report on a meeting last week in Beijing
between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and China's president Xi
Jinping, Kim asked Xi to help end sanctions targeting North Korea.
The report quotes Kim as telling Xi:
<QUOTE>"We are feeling great pain due to economic
sanctions. Now that we have concluded the US-North Korea summit in
success, I want (China) to work toward early lifting of the
sanctions."<END QUOTE>
According to the report, Xi said that he would do his "utmost" to
satisfy the request.
However, since the June 12 summit meeting between Kim and president
Donald Trump, there has been no evidence that North Korea intends to
keep its promise to denuclearize.
At the same time, there were reports last week, based on satellite
imagery, that North Korea has been rapidly building new
infrastructure at its Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center,
where plutonium for nuclear weapons is produced.
Since China has always been North Korea's main trading partner, China
has had to take responsibility for implementing many of the sanctions.
However, there have been reports in recent weeks that China has
already partially weakened its own enforcement of the sanctions.
Some analysts are claiming that Trump has already given up a lot by
agreeing to cancel the joint military drills with South Korea, without
getting anything in the return from the North.
The State Dept. on Thursday denied that it has softened its approach
to North Korea denuclearization. According to State Department
spokesman Heather Nauert:
<QUOTE>Nothing could be further from the truth. Our policy
toward North Korea has not changed.
We are committed to a denuclearized North Korea and Secretary
Pompeo looks forward to continuing his consultations with North
Korean leaders to follow up on the commitments made at the
Singapore summit."<END QUOTE>
Many people, including myself, are skeptical that Kim Jong-un has any
intention at all of denuclearizing. The purpose of Pompeo's current
trip is to get some specific commitments. According to Pompeo, "On
this trip I’m seeking to fill in some details on those commitments and
continue the momentum toward implementation of what the two leaders
promised each other and the world." AFP (1-July) and Reuters and 38 North (26-June)
and Joongang Daily (Seoul)
****
**** Pompeo's visit will test Trump's negotiating strategy
****
The reality of the situation is that the negotiations could break down
very quickly, and we could very quickly be as close to war as we were
in January, before Kim Jong-un's charm offensive at the Seoul
Olympics.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.
North Korea is said to be asking for "staged denuclearization." This
means that North Korea and the US alternate in making concessions on a
step by step basis, with the US removing each sanction in return for
North Korea taking a denuclearization step.
If this is Kim's strategy, it doesn't seem that he's following it.
The satellite imagery that shows infrastructure development at the
Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility cannot be a surprise to Kim. The
North would have been aware that the infrastructure changes would be
detected by satellite imagery, and it's therefore reasonably to
conclude that Kim wanted this development to be made public, perhaps
as a warning to the US that unless concessions are made rapidly, the
North will continue developing nuclear weapons.
According to reports, Pompeo is going to press Kim to provide a
complete list of all nuclear and ballistic missile production sites,
and a timetable for shutting them down. If, as expected, Kim refuses
to produce such a list, then there might be a major confrontation, or
they may kick the can down the road to a later meeting.
Trump said on Thursday,
<QUOTE>"I really believe that he sees a different future for
North Korea. I hope that’s true. If that’s not true, we’ll go back
to the other way."<END QUOTE>
In other words, the North Korean situation could blow up into a full
"crisis" again for the first time in months. The real disaster would
be if Trump gives in and reduces sanctions, getting nothing in return.
Korea Times and Channel News Asia
Related Articles:
- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
- China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
- Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics (07-Jul-2017)
****
**** Commentary: The US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports
****
The US has gone ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports, as of 12:01 am
on Friday.
China's statements in response to these tariffs have been getting
increasingly angry in tone. The Chinese appear to be infuriated and
humiliated by the tariffs, much more strongly that Europe, Canada or
Mexico.
If you're looking for a historical analogy, one place where you might
start is the sanctions that the US imposed on Japan on July 24, 1941.
The sanctions were in retaliation for Japanese occupation of French
Indo-China (Vietnam). Four and one-half months later, on December 7,
1941, Japan's bombers attacked Pearl Harbor. History.com
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mike Pompeo,
China, Xi Jinping, Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
