07-10-2018, 10:46 PM
*** 11-Jul-18 World View -- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
****
![[Image: azerbaijan.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/maps/azerbaijan.gif)
Azerbaijan. The disputed enclaves are Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-Azerbaijan, and Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), in the southwest corner of the map, separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. Not shown on the map, Turkey has a 10 km border with Nakhchivan. (CIA World Factbook)
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been rising quickly in
the last month, as the result of the movement of Azerbaijan military
forces in the enclave of Nakhchivan closer to the border with Armenia.
In recent years, most of the military tension between the two
countries has been related to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of Armenian
citizens in the midst of Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan were both
part of the Soviet Union empire, but the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991, led to a bloody war between the two countries. The war ended
in a cease-fire, with the Armenians in control of several Azerbaijani
regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
In April 2016, the continuing low-level conflict between the two
countries spiraled into a major clash, the worst since 1994, with
tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters. ( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)
Although that clash ended once again in a cease-fire, low-level
violence has been almost continuous since then, with each side
typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.
The new increase in tensions is not in Nagorno-Karabakh, but in
Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), an enclave shown in the southwest corner of the
above map. Nakhchivan is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it's
separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by part of Armenia.
Both of the enclaves Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan were created by
Soviet leader Josef Stalin, but supposedly for similar reasons -- to
maintain tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia so that Russia could
use its time-tested approach of dive and rule. More important, Stalin
wanted to deprive Turkey of a direct land bridge to Azerbaijan and
Turkic Central Asia while giving Armenia an external Soviet border to
Iran.
Starting in 1993, after Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders
with Armenia, a railway connecting Kars, in far eastern Turkey, to
Central Asia to the Caucasus was proposed. Since October 2017, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway has been transporting goods between
Kazakhstan and central Europe, with plans to increase its capacity.
Jamestown (12-June) and Vice (8-May-2013) and EurasiaNet (29-June)
****
**** Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
****
Some Russian analysts are raising concerns that Azerbaijan is about to
invade Armenia from Nakhchivan, based on movements by Azeri troops.
If that happens, it would not be long before other countries in the
region would begin choosing sides.
During the 1800s, Azerbaijan was a province of Iran, and there's a
large Persian population in Azerbaijan, which is particularly heavy in
Nakhchivan.
Iran would be able to exert a great deal of control over Nakhchivan if
the invasion takes place. Iran controls the only land bridge between
Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan, and so limit the supplies being
sent to Nakhchivan. Furthermore, Iran supplies much of the water and
electricity to Nakhchivan, and could shut them off if desired.
However, Iran might support the invasion in return for concessions
from Azerbaijan, particularly ending support for the separatist ethnic
Azerbaijanis in northern Iran.
Turkey has close relations with Azerbaijan, because of the latter's
large Turkic population. Turkey also has a long, bitter history with
Armenia, especially after the slaughter and displacement of millions
of Armenians in Turkey during World War I. So Turkey might support an
Azeri invasion of Armenia.
However, despite the love-fest between Turkey and Russia in Syria in
recent years, Turkey and Russia are bitter historic enemies, with
centuries of crisis wars in the southern Caucasus, and that enmity
would quickly be revived in the case of a new Caucasus war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) Christians in Armenia
are culturally linked to Russian Orthodox Christians, and so Russia
would choose the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan.
In the case of an Azerbaijan attack on Armenia, Armenia could invoke a
1997 mutual defense treaty with Russia, and as a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia's version of
Nato for the former members of the Soviet Union, Armenia has the right
to request assistance of any kind, including direct military, from the
entire bloc or from its individual member countries. Russia has also
promised to provide Armenia with air-defense radars and missiles.
Furthermore, the "Armenian-Russian United Group of Forces," formed
after April 2016 clash, could enter the war. A Russian analysis
provides a vitriolic response to complaints from Turkey and Azerbaijan
when this force grouping was formed in 2016:
<QUOTE>"For example, it is widely known that the creation of
the Armenian-Russian grouping of troops from the very first days
was sharply criticized by Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose policies
agitated Moscow to abandon this idea and see exclusively "devoted
allies" in Ankara and Baku. It seems that considering all the
"knives in the back" that the Turks of Russia have stumbled upon
(from the shot down planes in Syria, the murders of pilots to the
brazen act of terrorism against the Russian ambassador to Karlov
in Ankara) from 2015-16, the hypocrisy of the opponents of
creating and operating the Armenian- Russian groupings of troops
are more than noticeable. As well as the fact that Moscow was not
and does not intend to listen to the pharisaic calls of Ankara and
Baku."<END QUOTE>
The statement alludes to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian warplane
in Syria in November 2015, and the assassination of a Russian diplomat
in Ankara in December 2016. Jamestown and Regnum (Russia, 28-June) (Trans) and EurasiaNet (3-July) and Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhchivan, Naxçivan,
Soviet Union, Josef Stalin, Russia, Turkey, Kars, Iran,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
****
**** Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
****
Azerbaijan. The disputed enclaves are Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-Azerbaijan, and Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), in the southwest corner of the map, separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. Not shown on the map, Turkey has a 10 km border with Nakhchivan. (CIA World Factbook)
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been rising quickly in
the last month, as the result of the movement of Azerbaijan military
forces in the enclave of Nakhchivan closer to the border with Armenia.
In recent years, most of the military tension between the two
countries has been related to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of Armenian
citizens in the midst of Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan were both
part of the Soviet Union empire, but the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991, led to a bloody war between the two countries. The war ended
in a cease-fire, with the Armenians in control of several Azerbaijani
regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
In April 2016, the continuing low-level conflict between the two
countries spiraled into a major clash, the worst since 1994, with
tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters. ( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)
Although that clash ended once again in a cease-fire, low-level
violence has been almost continuous since then, with each side
typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.
The new increase in tensions is not in Nagorno-Karabakh, but in
Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), an enclave shown in the southwest corner of the
above map. Nakhchivan is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it's
separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by part of Armenia.
Both of the enclaves Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan were created by
Soviet leader Josef Stalin, but supposedly for similar reasons -- to
maintain tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia so that Russia could
use its time-tested approach of dive and rule. More important, Stalin
wanted to deprive Turkey of a direct land bridge to Azerbaijan and
Turkic Central Asia while giving Armenia an external Soviet border to
Iran.
Starting in 1993, after Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders
with Armenia, a railway connecting Kars, in far eastern Turkey, to
Central Asia to the Caucasus was proposed. Since October 2017, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway has been transporting goods between
Kazakhstan and central Europe, with plans to increase its capacity.
Jamestown (12-June) and Vice (8-May-2013) and EurasiaNet (29-June)
****
**** Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
****
Some Russian analysts are raising concerns that Azerbaijan is about to
invade Armenia from Nakhchivan, based on movements by Azeri troops.
If that happens, it would not be long before other countries in the
region would begin choosing sides.
During the 1800s, Azerbaijan was a province of Iran, and there's a
large Persian population in Azerbaijan, which is particularly heavy in
Nakhchivan.
Iran would be able to exert a great deal of control over Nakhchivan if
the invasion takes place. Iran controls the only land bridge between
Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan, and so limit the supplies being
sent to Nakhchivan. Furthermore, Iran supplies much of the water and
electricity to Nakhchivan, and could shut them off if desired.
However, Iran might support the invasion in return for concessions
from Azerbaijan, particularly ending support for the separatist ethnic
Azerbaijanis in northern Iran.
Turkey has close relations with Azerbaijan, because of the latter's
large Turkic population. Turkey also has a long, bitter history with
Armenia, especially after the slaughter and displacement of millions
of Armenians in Turkey during World War I. So Turkey might support an
Azeri invasion of Armenia.
However, despite the love-fest between Turkey and Russia in Syria in
recent years, Turkey and Russia are bitter historic enemies, with
centuries of crisis wars in the southern Caucasus, and that enmity
would quickly be revived in the case of a new Caucasus war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) Christians in Armenia
are culturally linked to Russian Orthodox Christians, and so Russia
would choose the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan.
In the case of an Azerbaijan attack on Armenia, Armenia could invoke a
1997 mutual defense treaty with Russia, and as a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia's version of
Nato for the former members of the Soviet Union, Armenia has the right
to request assistance of any kind, including direct military, from the
entire bloc or from its individual member countries. Russia has also
promised to provide Armenia with air-defense radars and missiles.
Furthermore, the "Armenian-Russian United Group of Forces," formed
after April 2016 clash, could enter the war. A Russian analysis
provides a vitriolic response to complaints from Turkey and Azerbaijan
when this force grouping was formed in 2016:
<QUOTE>"For example, it is widely known that the creation of
the Armenian-Russian grouping of troops from the very first days
was sharply criticized by Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose policies
agitated Moscow to abandon this idea and see exclusively "devoted
allies" in Ankara and Baku. It seems that considering all the
"knives in the back" that the Turks of Russia have stumbled upon
(from the shot down planes in Syria, the murders of pilots to the
brazen act of terrorism against the Russian ambassador to Karlov
in Ankara) from 2015-16, the hypocrisy of the opponents of
creating and operating the Armenian- Russian groupings of troops
are more than noticeable. As well as the fact that Moscow was not
and does not intend to listen to the pharisaic calls of Ankara and
Baku."<END QUOTE>
The statement alludes to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian warplane
in Syria in November 2015, and the assassination of a Russian diplomat
in Ankara in December 2016. Jamestown and Regnum (Russia, 28-June) (Trans) and EurasiaNet (3-July) and Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense
Related Articles:
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
- Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli (25-Apr-2015)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
- Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus (03-Sep-2008)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhchivan, Naxçivan,
Soviet Union, Josef Stalin, Russia, Turkey, Kars, Iran,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
