07-25-2018, 10:43 PM
*** 26-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
****
![[Image: g180725b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180725b.jpg)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testifying to Senate on Wednesday (AP)
Analysis of commercial satellite pictures by the 38 North website
shows that North Korea has apparently taken a first step in
dismantling facilities at its Sohae satellite launch site.
This site has been used in the past to conduct multiple rocket engine
tests, including at least two tests of the engines that ended up
powering the first stage of its two flight-tested
intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
According to 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez:
<QUOTE>"Since these facilities are believed to have played an
important role in the development of technologies for the North's
intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts
represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of
North Korea."<END QUOTE>
The action is being described as a "confidence building measure,"
following the June 12 summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un in Singapore. It's also being described as a step in
fulfilling the promises made by Kim Jong-un to Donald Trump during
that summit.
Adam Mount, a defense analyst at the Federation of American
Scientists, said that North Korea is giving up little in
its actions.
Mount was particularly concerned that North Korea did not even invite
foreign journalists to watch the dismantling, to verify that it had
actually occurred. Instead, the North did whatever it did in broad
daylight knowing that it would be detected and reported by analysts
like those at 38 North from commercial satellite pictures that show
actions on the ground that might be purposely deceptive.
A South Korean official expressed puzzlement for the same reason: "We
need further analysis to figure out why the North didn't turn the
dismantlement activities into an event and whether the country is
trying to control the speed of the process to maintain a pace it
wants."
Furthermore, it's not clear that anything significant was accomplished
at all, according to Mount:
<QUOTE>"The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that
Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves
advance nuclear disarmament. North Korea still has not disclosed
or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear
or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So
far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core
functions."<END QUOTE>
Furthermore, according to unnamed US government official referencing
assessments by US intelligence agencies, the site "can be
reconstituted within months."
U.S. military intelligence has similarly concluded in May that North
Korea’s dismantlement of the tunnel network at the Punggye-ri nuclear
test site with explosives was also reversible in a matter of "weeks to
months." In that case, North Korea invited journalists to watch the
dismantlement, but refused to invite experts who could verify what had
happened. There was the possibility that the explosions that occurred
at the entrance to the tunnels did not damage the insides of the
tunnels. 38 North and AP and The Diplomat
****
**** North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
****
As I've been writing for many months, there is no chance whatsoever
that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or
in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own
population for three decades, under the promise that one day North
Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States.
North Korea has had only one objective in the charm offensive since
the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and
South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without
having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the
United States.
All of the events since the June 12 summit meeting have been in
pursuit of that one objective. Other than two reversible actions,
nothing has been done to denuclearize or to end ballistic missile
development.
Furthermore, gasoline prices being charged in North Korea have been
cut in half since March, suggesting that either China or Russia is
supplying petroleum products to North Korea that are in violation of
sanctions imposed the U.N. Security Council in December. US officials
believe that these and other "maximum pressure" sanctions have forced
North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, a sharp drop
in prices could indicate either that the sanctions are not being
properly implemented, or that North Korea has found ways internally to
adapt to them. Either way, they lose their effectiveness.
The US State Dept. on Monday issued a 17-page advisory listing
"deceptive practices" used by the North to bypass the sanctions,
including the sending of slave trade abroad. It lists 42 countries
where North Korean laborers are still being exploited, including
Algeria, Angola, China, Equatorial Guinea and Russia, adding that the
U.S. is monitoring them to see whether they violate UN Security
Council resolutions. Washington has also singled out 239 North Korean
companies involved in illegal trade and warned against doing business
with them.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before the
Senate foreign relations committee. He confirmed that North Korea is
still producing fissile material for nuclear bombs in spite of its
pledge to denuclearize. He declined to respond when asked whether
North Korea was continuing to pursue submarine-launched ballistic
missiles.
The timeline for North Korea's denuclearization has yet to be
specified, but Pompeo said that the US goal was for North Korea’s
complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by the end
of Trump’s current term in office, which runs until January 2021,
"more quickly if possible." Pompeo said that no sanctions will be
listed until CVID is completed. Reuters and Chosun (Seoul) and US State Dept. and Guardian (London)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, 38 North,
Sohae launch site, Joseph Bermudez,
Adam Mount, Federation of American Scientists,
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, China, Russia,
Mike Pompeo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
- North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
****
**** North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
****
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testifying to Senate on Wednesday (AP)
Analysis of commercial satellite pictures by the 38 North website
shows that North Korea has apparently taken a first step in
dismantling facilities at its Sohae satellite launch site.
This site has been used in the past to conduct multiple rocket engine
tests, including at least two tests of the engines that ended up
powering the first stage of its two flight-tested
intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
According to 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez:
<QUOTE>"Since these facilities are believed to have played an
important role in the development of technologies for the North's
intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts
represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of
North Korea."<END QUOTE>
The action is being described as a "confidence building measure,"
following the June 12 summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un in Singapore. It's also being described as a step in
fulfilling the promises made by Kim Jong-un to Donald Trump during
that summit.
Adam Mount, a defense analyst at the Federation of American
Scientists, said that North Korea is giving up little in
its actions.
Mount was particularly concerned that North Korea did not even invite
foreign journalists to watch the dismantling, to verify that it had
actually occurred. Instead, the North did whatever it did in broad
daylight knowing that it would be detected and reported by analysts
like those at 38 North from commercial satellite pictures that show
actions on the ground that might be purposely deceptive.
A South Korean official expressed puzzlement for the same reason: "We
need further analysis to figure out why the North didn't turn the
dismantlement activities into an event and whether the country is
trying to control the speed of the process to maintain a pace it
wants."
Furthermore, it's not clear that anything significant was accomplished
at all, according to Mount:
<QUOTE>"The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that
Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves
advance nuclear disarmament. North Korea still has not disclosed
or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear
or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So
far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core
functions."<END QUOTE>
Furthermore, according to unnamed US government official referencing
assessments by US intelligence agencies, the site "can be
reconstituted within months."
U.S. military intelligence has similarly concluded in May that North
Korea’s dismantlement of the tunnel network at the Punggye-ri nuclear
test site with explosives was also reversible in a matter of "weeks to
months." In that case, North Korea invited journalists to watch the
dismantlement, but refused to invite experts who could verify what had
happened. There was the possibility that the explosions that occurred
at the entrance to the tunnels did not damage the insides of the
tunnels. 38 North and AP and The Diplomat
****
**** North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
****
As I've been writing for many months, there is no chance whatsoever
that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or
in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own
population for three decades, under the promise that one day North
Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States.
North Korea has had only one objective in the charm offensive since
the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and
South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without
having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the
United States.
All of the events since the June 12 summit meeting have been in
pursuit of that one objective. Other than two reversible actions,
nothing has been done to denuclearize or to end ballistic missile
development.
Furthermore, gasoline prices being charged in North Korea have been
cut in half since March, suggesting that either China or Russia is
supplying petroleum products to North Korea that are in violation of
sanctions imposed the U.N. Security Council in December. US officials
believe that these and other "maximum pressure" sanctions have forced
North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, a sharp drop
in prices could indicate either that the sanctions are not being
properly implemented, or that North Korea has found ways internally to
adapt to them. Either way, they lose their effectiveness.
The US State Dept. on Monday issued a 17-page advisory listing
"deceptive practices" used by the North to bypass the sanctions,
including the sending of slave trade abroad. It lists 42 countries
where North Korean laborers are still being exploited, including
Algeria, Angola, China, Equatorial Guinea and Russia, adding that the
U.S. is monitoring them to see whether they violate UN Security
Council resolutions. Washington has also singled out 239 North Korean
companies involved in illegal trade and warned against doing business
with them.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before the
Senate foreign relations committee. He confirmed that North Korea is
still producing fissile material for nuclear bombs in spite of its
pledge to denuclearize. He declined to respond when asked whether
North Korea was continuing to pursue submarine-launched ballistic
missiles.
The timeline for North Korea's denuclearization has yet to be
specified, but Pompeo said that the US goal was for North Korea’s
complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by the end
of Trump’s current term in office, which runs until January 2021,
"more quickly if possible." Pompeo said that no sanctions will be
listed until CVID is completed. Reuters and Chosun (Seoul) and US State Dept. and Guardian (London)
Related Articles:
- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened (06-Jul-2018)
- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap (27-Apr-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, 38 North,
Sohae launch site, Joseph Bermudez,
Adam Mount, Federation of American Scientists,
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, China, Russia,
Mike Pompeo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
