07-30-2018, 10:27 PM
*** 31-Jul-18 World View -- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
****
![[Image: g180730b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180730b.jpg)
Map of Mideast, highlighting Yemen's Hodeidah seaport, and shipping choke points Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The US military is looking at options to keep two vital waterways,
the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, open to
commercial shipping.
The increased concern comes about after Saudi Arabia suspended its oil shipments
through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait, after a Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile
launched by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in Yemen.
The missile's warhead only partially detonated, causing a 2-3 meter
hole in the hull, but if it had penetrated deeper and reached the 2
million barrels of oil in ship’s hold, it would have caused a massive
environmental disaster.
Saudi Arabia immediate suspended all oil shipments through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait. To date, no other exporters have followed suit. A
full blockage of the strait would halt shipment to Europe and the
United States of about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and
refined petroleum products, or result in substantial shipping delays
as vessels are rerouted around the southern tip of Africa. The Bab
al-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal
from the Indian Ocean.
Few people doubt that the missiles were provided to the Houthis by
Iran. However, Debka is going further and reporting that the attack
was orchestrated by a disguised Iranian vessel, the Saviz, a
weapons-carrying spy ship, which had been under surveillance by
Western naval sources for some time, as it was in a holding pattern in
the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Debka's reports are written from Israel's
point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide
valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that
they definitely do sometimes get some things wrong.
The Houthi attack is related to the Saudi-led offensive on the Port of
Hodeidah, which is used by NGOs as the major port for humanitarian
supplies for the Yemen population, and is also used by the Houthis for
the importation of weapons. The purpose of the offensive is to
recaptured the port from the Houthis. The offensive began on June 12,
but has been going badly, and has made little progress, except to
deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is considered the
world's worst.
The Houthis have targeted Saudi tankers in at least two other attacks
this year. According to a Saudi energy consultant, the Saudi
announcement about suspending oil shipments was done for security
reason, but also has a political dimension, to gain international
cooperation in the offensive on Hodeidah:
<QUOTE>"Rather than allowing these hostile maneuvers to go
unnoticed in the eyes of the world, the Saudi (energy) minister
has placed Iran’s subversions of the whole global economy under
the spotlight for everyone to see. The capture of the port of
Hodeidah will go a long way towards putting an end to these
disruptions."<END QUOTE>
Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from its fields in the east, through
the Strait of Hormuz, then through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through
the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to Europe and North America. The
Saudis have other choices for delivering oil. One possibility is to
use the Petroline, and east-west pipeline that can transport crude
from fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing both
of the narrow straits. It could also charter non-Saudi ships to carry
the oil through Bab al-Mandeb, which it already with Asian customers
using different routes. Reuters and Debka and CNBC
****
**** US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
****
Tensions between the US and Iran have been increasing since the Trump
administration pulled out of the nuclear deal in May. Since then,
Iran's rial currency has been plunging to record lows, in anticipation
of the imposition of new US sanctions on August 7. Some of those
sanctions may limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, and this has led
to tit-for-tat threats between the Trump administration and Iranian
officials, including a threat by Iran to take military action to shut
down the Strait of Hormuz.
It's now clear that Iran is not just threatening the Strait of
Hormuz, but is also threatened Bab al-Mandeb.
There have reports over the weekend that the US military was
considering what options can be used to keep both Hormuz and
Bab al-Mandeb open to commercial traffic, particularly oil
tankers.
For example, military studies suggest that an obstruction of Hormuz,
by mines, small submarines, “swarming” attacks by boats, and
land-based missiles, would be defeated within a few weeks at most by
US and allied naval forces. It would also be a casus belli for
the US to make a much wider-ranging strike against Iranian military
and other targets.
US military officials emphasize that if any military action is taken,
it would be carried out by other countries, including Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and not by
US forces. The National (UAE) and CNN and Haaretz and National Interest (28-Jun)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa,
Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf,
Strait of Hormuz, Petroline
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
- US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
****
**** Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
****
Map of Mideast, highlighting Yemen's Hodeidah seaport, and shipping choke points Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The US military is looking at options to keep two vital waterways,
the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, open to
commercial shipping.
The increased concern comes about after Saudi Arabia suspended its oil shipments
through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait, after a Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile
launched by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in Yemen.
The missile's warhead only partially detonated, causing a 2-3 meter
hole in the hull, but if it had penetrated deeper and reached the 2
million barrels of oil in ship’s hold, it would have caused a massive
environmental disaster.
Saudi Arabia immediate suspended all oil shipments through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait. To date, no other exporters have followed suit. A
full blockage of the strait would halt shipment to Europe and the
United States of about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and
refined petroleum products, or result in substantial shipping delays
as vessels are rerouted around the southern tip of Africa. The Bab
al-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal
from the Indian Ocean.
Few people doubt that the missiles were provided to the Houthis by
Iran. However, Debka is going further and reporting that the attack
was orchestrated by a disguised Iranian vessel, the Saviz, a
weapons-carrying spy ship, which had been under surveillance by
Western naval sources for some time, as it was in a holding pattern in
the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Debka's reports are written from Israel's
point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide
valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that
they definitely do sometimes get some things wrong.
The Houthi attack is related to the Saudi-led offensive on the Port of
Hodeidah, which is used by NGOs as the major port for humanitarian
supplies for the Yemen population, and is also used by the Houthis for
the importation of weapons. The purpose of the offensive is to
recaptured the port from the Houthis. The offensive began on June 12,
but has been going badly, and has made little progress, except to
deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is considered the
world's worst.
The Houthis have targeted Saudi tankers in at least two other attacks
this year. According to a Saudi energy consultant, the Saudi
announcement about suspending oil shipments was done for security
reason, but also has a political dimension, to gain international
cooperation in the offensive on Hodeidah:
<QUOTE>"Rather than allowing these hostile maneuvers to go
unnoticed in the eyes of the world, the Saudi (energy) minister
has placed Iran’s subversions of the whole global economy under
the spotlight for everyone to see. The capture of the port of
Hodeidah will go a long way towards putting an end to these
disruptions."<END QUOTE>
Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from its fields in the east, through
the Strait of Hormuz, then through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through
the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to Europe and North America. The
Saudis have other choices for delivering oil. One possibility is to
use the Petroline, and east-west pipeline that can transport crude
from fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing both
of the narrow straits. It could also charter non-Saudi ships to carry
the oil through Bab al-Mandeb, which it already with Asian customers
using different routes. Reuters and Debka and CNBC
****
**** US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
****
Tensions between the US and Iran have been increasing since the Trump
administration pulled out of the nuclear deal in May. Since then,
Iran's rial currency has been plunging to record lows, in anticipation
of the imposition of new US sanctions on August 7. Some of those
sanctions may limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, and this has led
to tit-for-tat threats between the Trump administration and Iranian
officials, including a threat by Iran to take military action to shut
down the Strait of Hormuz.
It's now clear that Iran is not just threatening the Strait of
Hormuz, but is also threatened Bab al-Mandeb.
There have reports over the weekend that the US military was
considering what options can be used to keep both Hormuz and
Bab al-Mandeb open to commercial traffic, particularly oil
tankers.
For example, military studies suggest that an obstruction of Hormuz,
by mines, small submarines, “swarming” attacks by boats, and
land-based missiles, would be defeated within a few weeks at most by
US and allied naval forces. It would also be a casus belli for
the US to make a much wider-ranging strike against Iranian military
and other targets.
US military officials emphasize that if any military action is taken,
it would be carried out by other countries, including Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and not by
US forces. The National (UAE) and CNN and Haaretz and National Interest (28-Jun)
Related Articles:
- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker (28-Jul-2018)
- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
- Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
- Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa,
Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf,
Strait of Hormuz, Petroline
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
