07-31-2018, 10:21 PM
*** 1-Aug-18 World View -- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
****
![[Image: g180731b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180731b.jpg)
The Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran (OrigIran)
Massive demonstrations that began in December 2017 have been
continuing intermittently in cities across Iran since then.
On Tuesday, the protests spread to the history central city
of Isfahan.
The protests a month ago
were
triggered by the collapse in the value of Iran's currency, the rial.
At the end of 2017, the exchange rate was 42,000 rials to the US
dollar. A month ago, the exchange rate had fallen to 90,000 rials to
the dollars. One of the chants that protesters used in last months
demonstrations was "We don't want the dollar at 100,000 rials!"
Well, on July 29 the exchange rate crossed the 100,000 milestone, and
by Monday, the exchange rate was 110,000 rials to the dollar. The
rate has been since May, when the Trump administration withdrew from
the nuclear deal, and announced that US sanctions would be imposed on
August 7.
The plunge in the value of the rial means that goods imported into
Iran from other countries now cost two times or even three times as
much as they used to.
As Americans, we're so used to being blamed for everything in the
world, it's startling that the protesters are not blaming America
for this increase in prices. Instead, their blaming their own
government.
Protesters blame the government for wasting the tens of billions
of dollars that Iran received when sanctions were lifted after
the nuclear deal was signed in 2015. From the point of view
of protesters, that money simply vanished into thin air, and they
blame that on the Iranian government, not the Americans. The
protesters blame Iran's massive corruption, especially among
the clergy, and the money that's being spent on foreign wars
in Syria and Lebanon.
Marchers on Tuesday were seen in video clips chanting "Leave Syria and
think about us," and "No to Gaza, No to Lebanon — I give my life to
Iran." The latter refers to billions of dollars being given to
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to Hamas in Gaza.
Other slogans were much more personal: "Death to the dictator,"
referring to the Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. VOA and AP and Arab News
****
**** The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change
****
The frequency of protests in Iran since the beginning of the
year has raised hopes in the West that regime change was close
at hand.
Earlier this month, there were protests for a very different reason --
water shortages and pollution, and lack of water management. A vast
agricultural area in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran lacks
irrigation water. This is a region that was devastated by the
Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s, and has a largely Arab population, which
suffers official discrimination, as opposed to the majority Persian
population. About 40% of Iran has been suffering from a serious
drought since last year.
There is a great desire in the West for something called "regime
change" in Iran, although it's rarely specified what that means. It
could mean that the Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, gets replaced, but
his replacement may be worse. In terms of violent repression,
Khamenei actually isn't very different from the Shah of Iran (Mohammad
Reza Shah Pahlavi) who was deposed by the 1979 revolution.
As we described last month in "Brief generational history of Iran's protests,"
Tehran's Grand Bazaar has played a pivotal role in protests and
regime changes in the past.
Tehran's Grand Bazaar is one of the oldest shopping malls in the
world, with origins that go back as far as 1660 BC. It occupies over
8 square miles, and has hundreds of shops. So when there's a
widespread protest and strike supported by the shop owners, and
suddenly all the shops are closed, it is a significant event.
The Tobacco Revolt of 1890-92 was led by tobacco merchants in the
Grand Bazaar, but quickly spread to other merchants. The revolt
fizzled because of violence from the Shah. But in 1905, there were
new protests, led this time by the sugar merchants in the Grand
Bazaar. These protests led to a generational crisis civil war, the
Constitutional Revolution, which was a major "regime change" for Iran
in that the Shah was then bound by laws defined in the new
constitution.
The White Revolution protests in 1962 were begun by a different set of
élites -- the clergy, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This
was too soon after the Constitutional Revolution to spread widely,
and it fizzled quickly.
However, it led to the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979. Once again,
the merchants in the Grand Bazaar were among the leaders that brought
about a major regime change -- overthrowing the Shah and replacing him
with Khomeini.
So now there are new protests by the merchants in the Grand Bazaar,
thanks to the plunge in the value of the rial, something that
affects them directly. Does that mean that regime change is
at hand?
No, it doesn't. If there's some kind of widespread revolt, it
will almost certainly fizzle, like the Tobacco Revolt and the
White Revolution protests.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a different
kind of change at hand, an Awakening era climax similar to the one
that forced president Richard Nixon to step down in America in 1974.
This will be the climax of the political confrontation between the
generations of old geezer survivors of the revolution and the people
in the younger generations growing up after the revolution -- the same
young people who have been protesting in cities across Iran.
Depending on who is in charge after this change, it's possible that
Iran will once again be the ally of the United States, just as it was
prior to 1979. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya and OrigIran and The Conversation (3-Jul)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Tehran, Grand Bazaar, Isfahan,
Seyed Ali Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Khuzestan, Iran/Iraq war,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
White Revolution, Islamic Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
- The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change
****
**** Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
****
The Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran (OrigIran)
Massive demonstrations that began in December 2017 have been
continuing intermittently in cities across Iran since then.
On Tuesday, the protests spread to the history central city
of Isfahan.
The protests a month ago
were
triggered by the collapse in the value of Iran's currency, the rial.
At the end of 2017, the exchange rate was 42,000 rials to the US
dollar. A month ago, the exchange rate had fallen to 90,000 rials to
the dollars. One of the chants that protesters used in last months
demonstrations was "We don't want the dollar at 100,000 rials!"
Well, on July 29 the exchange rate crossed the 100,000 milestone, and
by Monday, the exchange rate was 110,000 rials to the dollar. The
rate has been since May, when the Trump administration withdrew from
the nuclear deal, and announced that US sanctions would be imposed on
August 7.
The plunge in the value of the rial means that goods imported into
Iran from other countries now cost two times or even three times as
much as they used to.
As Americans, we're so used to being blamed for everything in the
world, it's startling that the protesters are not blaming America
for this increase in prices. Instead, their blaming their own
government.
Protesters blame the government for wasting the tens of billions
of dollars that Iran received when sanctions were lifted after
the nuclear deal was signed in 2015. From the point of view
of protesters, that money simply vanished into thin air, and they
blame that on the Iranian government, not the Americans. The
protesters blame Iran's massive corruption, especially among
the clergy, and the money that's being spent on foreign wars
in Syria and Lebanon.
Marchers on Tuesday were seen in video clips chanting "Leave Syria and
think about us," and "No to Gaza, No to Lebanon — I give my life to
Iran." The latter refers to billions of dollars being given to
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to Hamas in Gaza.
Other slogans were much more personal: "Death to the dictator,"
referring to the Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. VOA and AP and Arab News
****
**** The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change
****
The frequency of protests in Iran since the beginning of the
year has raised hopes in the West that regime change was close
at hand.
Earlier this month, there were protests for a very different reason --
water shortages and pollution, and lack of water management. A vast
agricultural area in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran lacks
irrigation water. This is a region that was devastated by the
Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s, and has a largely Arab population, which
suffers official discrimination, as opposed to the majority Persian
population. About 40% of Iran has been suffering from a serious
drought since last year.
There is a great desire in the West for something called "regime
change" in Iran, although it's rarely specified what that means. It
could mean that the Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, gets replaced, but
his replacement may be worse. In terms of violent repression,
Khamenei actually isn't very different from the Shah of Iran (Mohammad
Reza Shah Pahlavi) who was deposed by the 1979 revolution.
As we described last month in "Brief generational history of Iran's protests,"
Tehran's Grand Bazaar has played a pivotal role in protests and
regime changes in the past.
Tehran's Grand Bazaar is one of the oldest shopping malls in the
world, with origins that go back as far as 1660 BC. It occupies over
8 square miles, and has hundreds of shops. So when there's a
widespread protest and strike supported by the shop owners, and
suddenly all the shops are closed, it is a significant event.
The Tobacco Revolt of 1890-92 was led by tobacco merchants in the
Grand Bazaar, but quickly spread to other merchants. The revolt
fizzled because of violence from the Shah. But in 1905, there were
new protests, led this time by the sugar merchants in the Grand
Bazaar. These protests led to a generational crisis civil war, the
Constitutional Revolution, which was a major "regime change" for Iran
in that the Shah was then bound by laws defined in the new
constitution.
The White Revolution protests in 1962 were begun by a different set of
élites -- the clergy, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This
was too soon after the Constitutional Revolution to spread widely,
and it fizzled quickly.
However, it led to the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979. Once again,
the merchants in the Grand Bazaar were among the leaders that brought
about a major regime change -- overthrowing the Shah and replacing him
with Khomeini.
So now there are new protests by the merchants in the Grand Bazaar,
thanks to the plunge in the value of the rial, something that
affects them directly. Does that mean that regime change is
at hand?
No, it doesn't. If there's some kind of widespread revolt, it
will almost certainly fizzle, like the Tobacco Revolt and the
White Revolution protests.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a different
kind of change at hand, an Awakening era climax similar to the one
that forced president Richard Nixon to step down in America in 1974.
This will be the climax of the political confrontation between the
generations of old geezer survivors of the revolution and the people
in the younger generations growing up after the revolution -- the same
young people who have been protesting in cities across Iran.
Depending on who is in charge after this change, it's possible that
Iran will once again be the ally of the United States, just as it was
prior to 1979. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya and OrigIran and The Conversation (3-Jul)
Related Articles
- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments (31-Jul-2018)
- Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy (26-Jun-2018)
- Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police (19-May-2018)
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
- Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
- Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Tehran, Grand Bazaar, Isfahan,
Seyed Ali Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Khuzestan, Iran/Iraq war,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
White Revolution, Islamic Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
