08-05-2018, 11:12 PM
*** 6-Aug-18 World View -- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe North Korea strategy, as sanctions are violated
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues
****
![[Image: g180805b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180805b.jpg)
North Korea foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the Trump administration for refusing to lift sanctions (AFP)
A confidential report to the United Nations Security Council says that
during the last six months, not only has North Korea not stopped
development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles but, even worse,
North Korea is stepping up plans to sell weapons to other countries,
including to the Houthis in Yemen. Now when we talk about the war in
Yemen, instead of the "Iran-backed Houthis," we can refer to the
"Iran-backed and North Korea backed Houthis."
According to the report:
<QUOTE>"[North Korea] has not stopped its nuclear and missile
programs and continued to defy Security Council resolutions
through a massive increase in illicit ship-to-ship transfers of
petroleum products, as well as through transfers of coal at sea
during 2018."<END QUOTE>
North Korea also violated a textile ban by exporting more than $100
million in goods to China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Turkey and Uruguay within the same time period.
North Korea has also offered "a range of conventional arms, and in
some cases ballistic missiles to armed groups in Yemen and Libya," and
particularly to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. There is no report
on whether the sales were actually made.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the ASEAN conference, said
in response to the reports:
<QUOTE>"If these reports prove accurate, and we have every
reason to believe that they are, that would be in violation. I
want to remind every nation that has supported these resolutions
that this is a serious issue and something we will discuss with
Moscow.
[The US expects] all countries to abide to the UN Security Council
resolutions and enforce sanctions on North Korea. Any violation
that detracts from the world's goal of finally, fully
denuclearizing North Korea would be something that America would
take very seriously."<END QUOTE>
Pompeo did not specify what action or retaliation the US would take
against every country violating the sanctions, but there have been
widespread reports of violations by several countries, and no action
has been taken. In particular, Russia has been accused of bringing in
thousands of North Korean "guest workers," who act as virtual slaves,
and whose salaries are sent back to the North Korean regime.
However, Pompeo's remarks were met with sharp rebukes by the
representative of North Korea, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who said
that Washington was "raising its voice louder" in anger, despite
goodwill me
North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the United States
for insisting on sanctions, and prioritizing them higher than
"confidence-building," which apparently refers to removing sanctions:
<QUOTE>"Confidence is not a sentiment to be cultivated
overnight. In order to build full confidence between the DPRK
[North Korea] and the US, it is essential for both sides to take
simultaneous actions and phased steps to do what is possible one
after another."<END QUOTE>
He said that North Korea had done its part with goodwill measures such
as the moratorium on nuclear testing and the dismantling of a nuclear
site. But instead of reciprocating these goodwill measures, he
accused the US of "raising its voice louder" for maintaining sanctions
against North Korea, and was "showing the attitude to retreat even
from declaring the end of war, a very basic and primary step for
providing peace on the Korean peninsula." Declaring an end to the
Korean War, which is still theoretically in progress, though under a
ceasefire, would require removing American troops from South Korea, a
key objective of North Korea. It would also require removing the
THAAD missile defense system, a key objective of China. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Straits Times
****
**** John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy
****
As I've written many times, everything that the Trump administration
has done in foreign policy since Donald Trump took office makes
complete sense to me, which is in contrast to Obama's foreign policy,
which never made sense. The reason that Trump's foreign policy makes
sense is because everything he does is consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for years.
Trump understands these analyses because he was educated by his former
principal advisor Steve Bannon, whom I've worked with for years, and
who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics.
It's worth mentioning this because the mainstream press and mainstream
analysts are always completely and totally baffled by the
administration's foreign policy, even though it is consistent and
makes complete sense, provided you focus on actions, not PR tweets.
On Sunday, responding to questions about the UN report, national
security adviser John Bolton and Senator Marco Rubio described the
administration strategy toward North Korea at the present time.
As I've been writing for many months, based on Generational Dynamics
analyses, is that there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will
give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after
having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three
decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear
power on a peer with the United States.
North Korea has one and only one objective in the charm offensive
since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with
Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted
without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles
targeting the United States.
Saturday's statements by North Korea's foreign minister harshly
criticizing the US for not reciprocating North Korea's "goodwill
measures" and instead demanding that sanctions be continued is in line
with this objective.
During John Bolton's interview on Sunday, he said the following:
<QUOTE>"As I've said to you and others before, there's nobody
in his administration starry eyed about the prospects of North
Korea actually denuclearizing.
But I think what's going on now is that the president is giving
Kim Jong-un on a master class on how to hold a door open for
somebody. And if the North Koreans can't figure out how to walk
through it, even the president's fiercest critics will not be able
to say it's because he didn't open it wide enough.
We are going to have to see a performance from the North Koreans.
There's no question about it."<END QUOTE>
This is a very interesting statement, and reflects a strategy that I
haven't heard previously from the administration. As I've suggested
in the past, North Korea will continue nuclear missile development no
matter what the Trump administration does, and since it doesn't make
any different what action is taken, the administration should choose
actions that when the inevitable nuclear confrontation happens, the
North Koreans and the Chinese will be blamed for it, not the United
States. This is crucial from the point of view of historians ten or
twenty years from now, looking back and saying that it was North
Korea, not the United States, that was to blame for what happened.
Bolton's remarks on Trump giving "a master class on how to hold a door
open for somebody" are exactly in line with that objective.
Senator Marco Rubio, who is on the Senate and Intelligence and Foreign
Relations Committees, was also interviewed on Fox News, and gave
additional strategic information:
<QUOTE>"Well, I'm about to tell you I hope I'm wrong about,
but I do not believe that he is ever going to give up his nuclear
arsenal. What I do believe he will do is a series of unilateral
concessions that do not undermine his capabilities in the long
term. For example, I think he's more than willing to tear apart
facilities that are no longer necessary for old missiles because
he's got newer ones that work better. I believe he has undisclosed
sites that he thinks he can shield from the world. I believe that
he believes that even if he gets rid of some of the new enrichment
capabilities, he already has existing weapons and existing
enriched capabilities that he can hide from the from the world.
And every single time that he does one of these productions he is
engendering goodwill internationally, which is ultimately his
goal, to undermine international support for sanctions by arguing,
"Look at all these things I'm doing, the Americans are not
reciprocating," and undermining sanctions at the U.N. and
internationally. That's his goal in my opinion."<END QUOTE>
The interviewer Chris Wallace said: "Isn't Kim succeeding in lowering
the temperature, breaking apart the alliance of sanctions, and isn't
president Trump being played?"
Rubio responded, "I don't know if the president is being played. I
think he's hoping for the best but prepared for the worst. The
sanctions remained in place. We haven't changed a single sanction on
North Korea."
Once again, this makes complete sense because it's consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for months. As
I've said in the past, Trump can't prevent a world war, but I'm not
going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent a world
war, even if doing so is impossible.
One more related subject that the mainstream media is completely
baffled about is the issue of Russia. I must hear reporters ask the
same question a dozen times a day: Why is Trump so "nice" to Vladimir
Putin and Russia, when he's not so "nice" to China and in fact is
conducting a trade war?
Once again, this makes perfect sense, as I've been describing for
years. Russia will be our ally in the coming world war, just as the
Soviet Union was our ally in World War II, even though it was a bitter
enemy before and after World War II. Generational Dynamics predicts
that this bit of history will repeat itself, so of course it makes
sense for Trump to be "nice" to Russia. This will be of help later.
As for the trade war against China, this is a dangerous game. An
American oil embargo against Japan in 1941 led to Japan's attack on
Pearl Harbor several months later, and this trade war might trigger a
similar response from China today. In a sense it doesn't make any
difference, since China has been arming itself militarily to
pre-emptively attack the United States at a time of its choosing, so
the trade war might force China to move up the attack to a time when
it will not be as well prepared. However, there's no question that
this is a dangerous move.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.
Fox News
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea,
John Bolton, Marco Rubio, Steve Bannon,
China, Russia, Mike Pompeo, Yemen, Houthi, Iran,
Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay,
Russia, Ri Yong Ho, Kim Jong-un, Chris Wallace
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues
- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy
****
**** UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues
****
North Korea foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the Trump administration for refusing to lift sanctions (AFP)
A confidential report to the United Nations Security Council says that
during the last six months, not only has North Korea not stopped
development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles but, even worse,
North Korea is stepping up plans to sell weapons to other countries,
including to the Houthis in Yemen. Now when we talk about the war in
Yemen, instead of the "Iran-backed Houthis," we can refer to the
"Iran-backed and North Korea backed Houthis."
According to the report:
<QUOTE>"[North Korea] has not stopped its nuclear and missile
programs and continued to defy Security Council resolutions
through a massive increase in illicit ship-to-ship transfers of
petroleum products, as well as through transfers of coal at sea
during 2018."<END QUOTE>
North Korea also violated a textile ban by exporting more than $100
million in goods to China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Turkey and Uruguay within the same time period.
North Korea has also offered "a range of conventional arms, and in
some cases ballistic missiles to armed groups in Yemen and Libya," and
particularly to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. There is no report
on whether the sales were actually made.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the ASEAN conference, said
in response to the reports:
<QUOTE>"If these reports prove accurate, and we have every
reason to believe that they are, that would be in violation. I
want to remind every nation that has supported these resolutions
that this is a serious issue and something we will discuss with
Moscow.
[The US expects] all countries to abide to the UN Security Council
resolutions and enforce sanctions on North Korea. Any violation
that detracts from the world's goal of finally, fully
denuclearizing North Korea would be something that America would
take very seriously."<END QUOTE>
Pompeo did not specify what action or retaliation the US would take
against every country violating the sanctions, but there have been
widespread reports of violations by several countries, and no action
has been taken. In particular, Russia has been accused of bringing in
thousands of North Korean "guest workers," who act as virtual slaves,
and whose salaries are sent back to the North Korean regime.
However, Pompeo's remarks were met with sharp rebukes by the
representative of North Korea, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who said
that Washington was "raising its voice louder" in anger, despite
goodwill me
North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the United States
for insisting on sanctions, and prioritizing them higher than
"confidence-building," which apparently refers to removing sanctions:
<QUOTE>"Confidence is not a sentiment to be cultivated
overnight. In order to build full confidence between the DPRK
[North Korea] and the US, it is essential for both sides to take
simultaneous actions and phased steps to do what is possible one
after another."<END QUOTE>
He said that North Korea had done its part with goodwill measures such
as the moratorium on nuclear testing and the dismantling of a nuclear
site. But instead of reciprocating these goodwill measures, he
accused the US of "raising its voice louder" for maintaining sanctions
against North Korea, and was "showing the attitude to retreat even
from declaring the end of war, a very basic and primary step for
providing peace on the Korean peninsula." Declaring an end to the
Korean War, which is still theoretically in progress, though under a
ceasefire, would require removing American troops from South Korea, a
key objective of North Korea. It would also require removing the
THAAD missile defense system, a key objective of China. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Straits Times
****
**** John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy
****
As I've written many times, everything that the Trump administration
has done in foreign policy since Donald Trump took office makes
complete sense to me, which is in contrast to Obama's foreign policy,
which never made sense. The reason that Trump's foreign policy makes
sense is because everything he does is consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for years.
Trump understands these analyses because he was educated by his former
principal advisor Steve Bannon, whom I've worked with for years, and
who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics.
It's worth mentioning this because the mainstream press and mainstream
analysts are always completely and totally baffled by the
administration's foreign policy, even though it is consistent and
makes complete sense, provided you focus on actions, not PR tweets.
On Sunday, responding to questions about the UN report, national
security adviser John Bolton and Senator Marco Rubio described the
administration strategy toward North Korea at the present time.
As I've been writing for many months, based on Generational Dynamics
analyses, is that there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will
give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after
having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three
decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear
power on a peer with the United States.
North Korea has one and only one objective in the charm offensive
since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with
Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted
without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles
targeting the United States.
Saturday's statements by North Korea's foreign minister harshly
criticizing the US for not reciprocating North Korea's "goodwill
measures" and instead demanding that sanctions be continued is in line
with this objective.
During John Bolton's interview on Sunday, he said the following:
<QUOTE>"As I've said to you and others before, there's nobody
in his administration starry eyed about the prospects of North
Korea actually denuclearizing.
But I think what's going on now is that the president is giving
Kim Jong-un on a master class on how to hold a door open for
somebody. And if the North Koreans can't figure out how to walk
through it, even the president's fiercest critics will not be able
to say it's because he didn't open it wide enough.
We are going to have to see a performance from the North Koreans.
There's no question about it."<END QUOTE>
This is a very interesting statement, and reflects a strategy that I
haven't heard previously from the administration. As I've suggested
in the past, North Korea will continue nuclear missile development no
matter what the Trump administration does, and since it doesn't make
any different what action is taken, the administration should choose
actions that when the inevitable nuclear confrontation happens, the
North Koreans and the Chinese will be blamed for it, not the United
States. This is crucial from the point of view of historians ten or
twenty years from now, looking back and saying that it was North
Korea, not the United States, that was to blame for what happened.
Bolton's remarks on Trump giving "a master class on how to hold a door
open for somebody" are exactly in line with that objective.
Senator Marco Rubio, who is on the Senate and Intelligence and Foreign
Relations Committees, was also interviewed on Fox News, and gave
additional strategic information:
<QUOTE>"Well, I'm about to tell you I hope I'm wrong about,
but I do not believe that he is ever going to give up his nuclear
arsenal. What I do believe he will do is a series of unilateral
concessions that do not undermine his capabilities in the long
term. For example, I think he's more than willing to tear apart
facilities that are no longer necessary for old missiles because
he's got newer ones that work better. I believe he has undisclosed
sites that he thinks he can shield from the world. I believe that
he believes that even if he gets rid of some of the new enrichment
capabilities, he already has existing weapons and existing
enriched capabilities that he can hide from the from the world.
And every single time that he does one of these productions he is
engendering goodwill internationally, which is ultimately his
goal, to undermine international support for sanctions by arguing,
"Look at all these things I'm doing, the Americans are not
reciprocating," and undermining sanctions at the U.N. and
internationally. That's his goal in my opinion."<END QUOTE>
The interviewer Chris Wallace said: "Isn't Kim succeeding in lowering
the temperature, breaking apart the alliance of sanctions, and isn't
president Trump being played?"
Rubio responded, "I don't know if the president is being played. I
think he's hoping for the best but prepared for the worst. The
sanctions remained in place. We haven't changed a single sanction on
North Korea."
Once again, this makes complete sense because it's consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for months. As
I've said in the past, Trump can't prevent a world war, but I'm not
going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent a world
war, even if doing so is impossible.
One more related subject that the mainstream media is completely
baffled about is the issue of Russia. I must hear reporters ask the
same question a dozen times a day: Why is Trump so "nice" to Vladimir
Putin and Russia, when he's not so "nice" to China and in fact is
conducting a trade war?
Once again, this makes perfect sense, as I've been describing for
years. Russia will be our ally in the coming world war, just as the
Soviet Union was our ally in World War II, even though it was a bitter
enemy before and after World War II. Generational Dynamics predicts
that this bit of history will repeat itself, so of course it makes
sense for Trump to be "nice" to Russia. This will be of help later.
As for the trade war against China, this is a dangerous game. An
American oil embargo against Japan in 1941 led to Japan's attack on
Pearl Harbor several months later, and this trade war might trigger a
similar response from China today. In a sense it doesn't make any
difference, since China has been arming itself militarily to
pre-emptively attack the United States at a time of its choosing, so
the trade war might force China to move up the attack to a time when
it will not be as well prepared. However, there's no question that
this is a dangerous move.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.
Fox News
Related Articles:
- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site (26-Jul-2018)
- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
- Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics (07-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea,
John Bolton, Marco Rubio, Steve Bannon,
China, Russia, Mike Pompeo, Yemen, Houthi, Iran,
Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay,
Russia, Ri Yong Ho, Kim Jong-un, Chris Wallace
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
