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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 16-Aug-18 World View -- China-Cambodia grow closer militarily, as Hun Sen steals parliamentary election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China-Cambodia grow closer militarily, as Hun Sen steals parliamentary election
  • China's military aid and infrastructure investments bring debt trap to Cambodia

****
**** China-Cambodia grow closer militarily, as Hun Sen steals parliamentary election
****


[Image: g180815b.jpg]
New casinos in Sihanoukville, a byproduct of Chinese investment (Bloomberg)

Nobody is surprised that the Cambodia People's Party (CPP), led by
Cambodia's dictator Hun Sen, won the recent national parliamentary
election. Still, it's breathtaking that the National Election
Committee (NEC) announced on Wednesday that the CPP had a clean sweep,
and had won all 125 parliamentary seats up for election.

65 year old Hun Sen came to power in 1985, in the midst of an invasion
by Communist Vietnam (1979-89), which followed the "Killing Fields"
civil war, where Communist leader Pol Pot led the Khmer Rouge to kill
some two million civilians.

Cambodia used to have reasonably fair elections. It was an ally
of the United States, the European Union and the West in general,
helping it on the road to a democracy with fair and free elections.
Everything was swell, as long as Hun Sen was the overwhelming
victor in elections.

All that changed with 2013 election, when the opposition party, the
Cambodia National Rescue party (CNRP) came close to winning, with 44%
of the vote compared to 48% for the CPP. Rather than risk losing an
election, Hun Sen became increasingly authoritarian. Political
opponents were jailed or assassinated, and Hun Sen took control of all
the media, making the once independent newspapers nothing more than
government CPP party organs, and closing all radio stations critical
of the government, including Voice of America.

The coup de grâce came last year when the leader of the CNRP,
Kem Sokha, was jailed on trumped-up charges of "treason." Then
the court, under Hun Sen's control, ordered the complete dissolution
of the CNRP, the only viable opposition party. So that explains
how Hun Sen's party was able to win all 125 parliamentary seats.

These actions by Hun Sen in the last few years have come under
increasing international criticism by human rights organizations, and
by pressure from the West, including the United States, Australia and
the European Union. The United States has already sanctioned the
commander of Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit, for carrying out “serious acts
of human rights abuse against the people of Cambodia.”

The European Union is threatening to go farther, by threatening trade
sanctions against Cambodia, particularly by withdrawing the
"Everything But Arms" (EBA) trade preferences that Cambodia enjoys
with the EU. The EBA grants developing countries such as Cambodia
quota free and duty free access to the EU market. In 2017,
Cambodia had $6.2 billion in revenue from exports to the EU,
and avoided paying $676 million in duties because of the EBA.

That money would have to be paid if the EBA were withdrawn, resulting
in high unemployment among Cambodia's 700,000 garment workers, many of
whom are heavily indebted. Because withdrawing the EBA would hurt the
Cambodian people, rather than Hun Sen and the Cambodian leaders, there
is a big reluctance to do it. Reuters and The Conversation and VOA and Al-Jazeera

****
**** China's military aid and infrastructure investments bring debt trap to Cambodia
****


As the West has been increasingly critical of human rights abuses
in Cambodia, Cambodia has gotten closer and closer to China,
where human rights abuses, including torture, rape, jailings
and assassinations are perfectly OK.

In March of this year, hundreds of Cambodian and Chinese soldiers held
"Golden Dragon," a 15-day joint military exercise in central Cambodia,
involving live-fire rocket launches from helicopters, mock tank
battles, and anti-terrorism and emergency relief training.

Last year, Cambodia suspended a planned joint military exercise with
the U.S. Army, called Angkor Sentinel, that was to have been held for
the eighth year straight. Also canceled was a long-running U.S. Navy
program that provided humanitarian assistance in the country. Cambodia
said its forces were too busy to join the annual exercise.

Then in June, China pledged $100 million in military grants for
training and equipment for the Cambodian military. These grants
are, of course, made with no concern for human rights, as would
be the case with Western grants.

China is also providing funding for major infrastructure projects,
including dams along the Mekong River and hydroelectric plants. In
June 2018, a leaked environmental impact assessment report on the
proposed Sambor Hydropower Dam project in Cambodia revealed that
constructing a dam at the proposed site could "literally kill the
[Mekong] River."

Developing hydropower dams is the Cambodian government’s highest
energy priority. Currently, the government is aggressively pursuing
this goal with the help of Chinese companies, for which a series of
dam projects have been granted approvals.

So far, all of Cambodia’s hydropower plants have been developed under
50-year build–operate–transfer contracts. Under these contracts, all
revenue accrued will flow to the Chinese companies operating the dams.
Only at the conclusion of the contracts will each plant’s ownership
and revenue be transferred to the Cambodian government. Before this
time, the current hydropower plants are creating very little income
for Cambodia.

In fact, this is turning into yet one more example of a China "debt
trap" situation, in many ways similar to the situation in Pakistan
that I described yesterday,
and in
other countries as well. China has made huge infrastructure
developments in the capital city Phnom Penh, and more so in the
Sihanoukville seaport. One resident is quoted as saying:

<QUOTE>"Everything has changed in Sihanoukville in just two
years. Before it was really quiet here, but not any more with all
the Chinese construction. I am worried that it’s very destructive
to the environment, all this building.... And what will happen
when all the construction is finished and thousands more people
come? There will be no Cambodia left in
Sihanoukville."<END QUOTE>


Sihanoukville has given itself over entirely to Chinese investment,
with a $1.1 billion investment from China in just the past year.
Chinese casino owners have also taken advantage of the nonexistent
gambling regulation and lax money-laundering laws to set up an empire
that is accessible only to foreigners – because gambling is still
illegal for Cambodian locals.

The key complaint for many in Sihanoukville is that even though
Chinese investment brings wealth, it is mainly kept within their own
community. Chinese residents and visitors buy from Chinese businesses
and visit Chinese restaurants and hotels, ensuring the trickle-down
effect is minimal.

However, Cambodia has the fastest growing debt in all of Southeast
Asia. The debt trap will occur when Cambodia is unable to make the
payments on its debt. At that point, China will do as it's done
before: Take control of the infrastructure assets it funded, and leave
the country with a large enclave of Chinese workers and their
families, and enclave that will be there forever. VOA and The Diplomat and East Asia Forum and Asia Nikkei and Reuters

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Cambodia, Phnom Penh,
Hun Sen, Cambodia People's Party, CPP,
Killing fields, Khmer Rouge,
Kem Sokha, Cambodia National Rescue party, CNRP,
Australia, European Union, Everything But Arms, EBA,
Golden Dragon, Angkor Sentinel, Mekong River,
Sambor Hydropower Dam project, Sihanoukville, debt trap

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16-Aug-18 World View -- China-Cambodia grow closer militarily, as Hun Sen steals parl - by John J. Xenakis - 08-15-2018, 11:15 PM
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