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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 25-Aug-18 World View -- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo
  • The dreaded tribal war zone scenario

****
**** In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo
****


[Image: g180824b.jpg]
A health worker gets ready to perform Ebola medical checks in North Kivu (AFP)

Dr. Peter Salama, from the World Health Organization (WHO), said on
Friday:

<QUOTE>"For the first time really we have a confirmed case
and contacts in an area of very high insecurity. It really was the
problem we were anticipating and the problem at same time that we
were dreading."<END QUOTE>


The reason for the statement of concern is that several simultaneous
conditions in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC) have given rise to a situation where an explosion of new
infections is likely, in a densely populated tribal war zone.

The new outbreak of Ebola
was
identified on August 1, just one week after the previous outbreak of
Ebola officially ended on July 24.

The earlier outbreak
had occurred
in far western DRC province of Equateur, centered on a port city on
the Congo River. Applying lessons learned from the huge Ebola
pandemic of 2014-16 in West Africa, the WHO moved very quickly contain
and eliminate that outbreak. WHO medical personnel barely had time to
relax when they received word of the new outbreak in the far eastern
provinces of North Kivu and Ituri. Both the previous and current
outbreaks were caused by the "Zaire strain" of the Ebola virus.
However, scientific evidence shows the two outbreaks are unrelated.
This means that the virus has again made a jump from the environment
(through bats or animals) to people. Daily Mail and BBC and AFP

****
**** The dreaded tribal war zone scenario
****


The earlier outbreak occurred in one large city, but mostly in small
villages, where doctors could easily and aggressive use "contact
tracing" to prevent the virus from spreading. When an Ebola patient
is identified, then all that person's contacts and contacts of
contacts are tracked down, and are warned to remain indoors for an
incubation period of 21 days. A newly developed vaccine can be given
to suspected victims to prevent illness.

So far, 63 people are believed to have died in the outbreak that began
on August 1. There are about 103 confirmed and probably cases.

The biggest cause for concern is that one of the confirmed cases is
that of an unidentified WHO physician who has been identifying and
diagnosing Ebola patients. However, he wasn't infected by one of his
patients. He was infected by his own wife when she returned from a
nearby city.

The doctor had been in contact with over 100 people in the town of
Oicha, about 50 km from DRC's border with Uganda. About 97 of these
people have been identified, and WHO officials have been using
contact tracing and vaccinations to stop the spread. The problem
is that the spreading could go out of control.

North Kivu province is rich in mineral sources, including gold.
In August 2007, DRC government forces attacked civilians in order
to obtain these mineral sources, creating an enormous refugee
crisis, with hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing intorefugee camps
in Uganda. In 2017, the number of refugees has been surging, because
of tribal violence between DRC government forces and a rebel
coalition known as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).

Currently, the city of Oicha itself is not under ADF control, but the
entire region surrounding Oicha is under ADF control, where aid
workers, priests and government officials are being held hostage.
North Kivu is the most densely populated province in DRC, so there are
many scenarios where the virus could spread explosively -- into a
region controlled by the AFD, or into a refugee camp in Uganda.

The situation is even further complicated by the fact that the ADF has
used violence against US peacekeepers in the region. United Nations
officials were stunned in December by the worst attack on United
Nations peacekeepers in recent history, when 15 people were killed and
54 wounded in Kivu state, near the border with Rwanda and Uganda.
World Health Organization and International SOS

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Oicha, Uganda, Rwanda,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO,
Allied Democratic Forces, ADF

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25-Aug-18 World View -- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war z - by John J. Xenakis - 08-24-2018, 10:42 PM
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