08-25-2018, 10:53 PM
*** 26-Aug-18 World View -- China, North and South Korea confounded by cancellation of Kim Jong-un meeting
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China, North and South Korea confounded by cancellation of Kim Jong-un meeting
****
![[Image: g180825b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180825b.jpg)
Mike Pompeo and Kim Jong-un shake hands prior to their May 9 meeting in Pyongyang (Reuters)
President Donald Trump announced on Friday morning that he was
canceling the planned meeting of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with
North Korea's president Kim Jong-un in three tweets:
<QUOTE>"I have asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo not to go
to North Korea, at this time, because I feel we are not making
sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the
Korean Peninsula...
...Additionally, because of our much tougher Trading stance with
China, I do not believe they are helping with the process of
denuclearization as they once were (despite the UN Sanctions which
are in place)...
...Secretary Pompeo looks forward to going to North Korea in the
near future, most likely after our Trading relationship with China
is resolved. In the meantime I would like to send my warmest
regards and respect to Chairman Kim. I look forward to seeing him
soon!"<END QUOTE>
This is the first time that I'm aware of that Trump has tied together
these two major issues -- denuclearization of North Korea and the
trading dispute with China. Significantly, he seems to imply that
negotiations with North Korea will be put on hold until some
resolution is reached on the trading issue.
Finally, the tweets imply that China is at fault, and that Kim is just
doing what China is telling him to do.
By ending negotiations with North Korea, these tweets undercut
repeated demands by the North Koreans for the US, North Korea, South
Korea and China to sign a peace treaty officially ending the 1950s war
in Korea, which ended in 1953 with a ceasefire armistice agreement.
The Chinese would very much like to get an agreement officially ending
the Korean war, since such an agreement would then be followed by
demands to remove American troops from South Korea, and particularly
to remove the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) currently
deployed in South Korea. Nominally, THAAD is an anti-missile system
deployed to protect South Korea from North Korean missiles, but the
Chinese particularly object to the THAAD's powerful radar capabilities
that see far into Chinese territory and could provide an early warning
of a Chinese missile attack.
China's foreign ministry issued a statement saying the following:
<QUOTE>"China's position on the Korean Peninsula nuclear
issue is consistent and clear. We are committed to achieving
denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, maintaining peace and
stability on the Korean Peninsula, and resolving this issue
through dialogue and consultation. For all these years, China has
been making unremitting efforts for this issue's proper
settlement. We have been playing an important and constructive
role and comprehensively and strictly implementing the
DPRK-related resolutions of the Security Council. All these
efforts are witnessed by the international
community."<END QUOTE>
South Korea's foreign ministry issued a statement saying the
following:
<QUOTE>"It’s most important to maintain a long-term view
while maintaining a momentum for dialogue and concentrate
diplomatic efforts to faithfully implement the agreements from the
summits between South Korea and North Korea and between North
Korea and the United States, instead of attaching meaning to each
change in the situation.
While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as
unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North
Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North
Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete
denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime
in the Korean Peninsula."<END QUOTE>
Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that China
and the US are headed for a major world war with 100% certainty.
Furthermore, North Korea will never agree to denuclearization, after
decades of having starved, tortured and brutalized the North Korean
people, promising that it was all worth it because one day North Korea
would be nuclear power and would be a great nation, a peer to the
United States. The Hill and Foreign Ministry of China and AP and South China Morning Post (28-Jul) and VOA
****
**** Trump pursues risky strategy, trying to avoid a greater risk
****
The media is filled with the usual statements about Trump's unhinged
policies borne out of personal frustration, or about how State
Department personnel were blindsided by the announcement. So it's
pretty clear that the mainstream media don't have even the slightest
clue what's actually going on.
On the other hand, Dear Reader, if you're one of the ones who believe
that Trump is the grandmaster at "The Art of the Deal" and you want to
learn something, the best way to proceed is from the assumption that
there's an actual rational strategy behind the tweets.
If you want to try to make sense of what Trump is doing, then you have
to start with the Generational Dynamics predictions that we're headed
for a world war with China, and that under no circumstances will North
Korea agree to denuclearize, and that their only objective is to get
the sanctions lifted while continuning development of nuclear missiles
targeting the United States. Donald Trump is aware of these
predictions, because he was educated by Steve Bannon, who is an expert
on both military history and Generational Dynamics, since I worked
with him off and on for a number of years.
What's been obvious from the day that Trump took office is that
everything he's done in foreign policy is based on being aware of
these predictions and on his determination to keep them from actually
coming to pass. And as I've said many times, I'm not going to
criticize Trump for taking actions to try to prevent a world war, even
if preventing a world war is impossible.
Trump's aggressive tariffs and trade policy toward China makes sense
if you understand it as a strategy of trying to throw China's entire
entire political strategy off-balance, in order to derail continued
preparations for war. China keeps insisting that it wants nothing but
stability, in North Korea and in trade, and that's true, because they
don't want to be distracted in war preparations. Trump's imposed
tariffs are causing significant economic disruptions to China's
economy -- which is already in a great deal of trouble -- while North
Korea's threats to the United States are keeping US military forces
deployed in the region, and THAAD anti-missile and radar systems
deployed in South Korea.
Trump's strategy makes sense, but that doesn't mean it's going to
work. It's highly risky in the sense that it could trigger an earlier
war. I've mentioned on several occasions that we're already in a
tit-for-tat escalation pattern with China, and so is Taiwan. This is
exactly the pattern that leads to a major war in a generational Crisis
era. But the "soft diplomacy" strategy employed by the Obama
administration was certain to lead to war as well. Every strategy
today leads to unavoidable war.
The negotiations have been completely stalled for weeks. North Korea
has shown no sign of denuclearization. According to some reports,
Mike Pompeo was demanding that the North Koreans should produce a list
of all its secret nuclear and missile development sites, so that
inspections can begin. According to another report, Pompeo is asking
that North Korea hand over 60-70% of its nuclear warheads, so that
another country can remove them from North Korea. Intelligence
officials say that North Korea is unwilling to agree to either of
these steps, even under considerable concessions from the American
side.
Furthermore, the US has found that shipping and trading firms based in
China, Russia and Singapore have been using clandestine methods to
cheat on the United Nations sanctions,
So there was really no point to the Pompeo-Kim meeting anyway, so
cancelling the meeting makes sense just from that point of view alone.
But it also shows that -- take your pick -- Trump is completely
unhinged or a hardheaded negotiator. Whichever one the politicians in
Pyongyang, Beijing and Seoul believe, they still have to deal with
Trump, and maybe North Korea will be willing to get rid of at a least
10% of its nuclear arsenal. It's possible that's what Trump is hoping
for. South China Morning Post and Vox and Politico and Vox (8-Aug)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, South Korea,
Mike Pompeo, Kim Jong-un,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China, North and South Korea confounded by cancellation of Kim Jong-un meeting
- Trump pursues risky strategy, trying to avoid a greater risk
****
**** China, North and South Korea confounded by cancellation of Kim Jong-un meeting
****
Mike Pompeo and Kim Jong-un shake hands prior to their May 9 meeting in Pyongyang (Reuters)
President Donald Trump announced on Friday morning that he was
canceling the planned meeting of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with
North Korea's president Kim Jong-un in three tweets:
<QUOTE>"I have asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo not to go
to North Korea, at this time, because I feel we are not making
sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the
Korean Peninsula...
...Additionally, because of our much tougher Trading stance with
China, I do not believe they are helping with the process of
denuclearization as they once were (despite the UN Sanctions which
are in place)...
...Secretary Pompeo looks forward to going to North Korea in the
near future, most likely after our Trading relationship with China
is resolved. In the meantime I would like to send my warmest
regards and respect to Chairman Kim. I look forward to seeing him
soon!"<END QUOTE>
This is the first time that I'm aware of that Trump has tied together
these two major issues -- denuclearization of North Korea and the
trading dispute with China. Significantly, he seems to imply that
negotiations with North Korea will be put on hold until some
resolution is reached on the trading issue.
Finally, the tweets imply that China is at fault, and that Kim is just
doing what China is telling him to do.
By ending negotiations with North Korea, these tweets undercut
repeated demands by the North Koreans for the US, North Korea, South
Korea and China to sign a peace treaty officially ending the 1950s war
in Korea, which ended in 1953 with a ceasefire armistice agreement.
The Chinese would very much like to get an agreement officially ending
the Korean war, since such an agreement would then be followed by
demands to remove American troops from South Korea, and particularly
to remove the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) currently
deployed in South Korea. Nominally, THAAD is an anti-missile system
deployed to protect South Korea from North Korean missiles, but the
Chinese particularly object to the THAAD's powerful radar capabilities
that see far into Chinese territory and could provide an early warning
of a Chinese missile attack.
China's foreign ministry issued a statement saying the following:
<QUOTE>"China's position on the Korean Peninsula nuclear
issue is consistent and clear. We are committed to achieving
denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, maintaining peace and
stability on the Korean Peninsula, and resolving this issue
through dialogue and consultation. For all these years, China has
been making unremitting efforts for this issue's proper
settlement. We have been playing an important and constructive
role and comprehensively and strictly implementing the
DPRK-related resolutions of the Security Council. All these
efforts are witnessed by the international
community."<END QUOTE>
South Korea's foreign ministry issued a statement saying the
following:
<QUOTE>"It’s most important to maintain a long-term view
while maintaining a momentum for dialogue and concentrate
diplomatic efforts to faithfully implement the agreements from the
summits between South Korea and North Korea and between North
Korea and the United States, instead of attaching meaning to each
change in the situation.
While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as
unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North
Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North
Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete
denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime
in the Korean Peninsula."<END QUOTE>
Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that China
and the US are headed for a major world war with 100% certainty.
Furthermore, North Korea will never agree to denuclearization, after
decades of having starved, tortured and brutalized the North Korean
people, promising that it was all worth it because one day North Korea
would be nuclear power and would be a great nation, a peer to the
United States. The Hill and Foreign Ministry of China and AP and South China Morning Post (28-Jul) and VOA
****
**** Trump pursues risky strategy, trying to avoid a greater risk
****
The media is filled with the usual statements about Trump's unhinged
policies borne out of personal frustration, or about how State
Department personnel were blindsided by the announcement. So it's
pretty clear that the mainstream media don't have even the slightest
clue what's actually going on.
On the other hand, Dear Reader, if you're one of the ones who believe
that Trump is the grandmaster at "The Art of the Deal" and you want to
learn something, the best way to proceed is from the assumption that
there's an actual rational strategy behind the tweets.
If you want to try to make sense of what Trump is doing, then you have
to start with the Generational Dynamics predictions that we're headed
for a world war with China, and that under no circumstances will North
Korea agree to denuclearize, and that their only objective is to get
the sanctions lifted while continuning development of nuclear missiles
targeting the United States. Donald Trump is aware of these
predictions, because he was educated by Steve Bannon, who is an expert
on both military history and Generational Dynamics, since I worked
with him off and on for a number of years.
What's been obvious from the day that Trump took office is that
everything he's done in foreign policy is based on being aware of
these predictions and on his determination to keep them from actually
coming to pass. And as I've said many times, I'm not going to
criticize Trump for taking actions to try to prevent a world war, even
if preventing a world war is impossible.
Trump's aggressive tariffs and trade policy toward China makes sense
if you understand it as a strategy of trying to throw China's entire
entire political strategy off-balance, in order to derail continued
preparations for war. China keeps insisting that it wants nothing but
stability, in North Korea and in trade, and that's true, because they
don't want to be distracted in war preparations. Trump's imposed
tariffs are causing significant economic disruptions to China's
economy -- which is already in a great deal of trouble -- while North
Korea's threats to the United States are keeping US military forces
deployed in the region, and THAAD anti-missile and radar systems
deployed in South Korea.
Trump's strategy makes sense, but that doesn't mean it's going to
work. It's highly risky in the sense that it could trigger an earlier
war. I've mentioned on several occasions that we're already in a
tit-for-tat escalation pattern with China, and so is Taiwan. This is
exactly the pattern that leads to a major war in a generational Crisis
era. But the "soft diplomacy" strategy employed by the Obama
administration was certain to lead to war as well. Every strategy
today leads to unavoidable war.
The negotiations have been completely stalled for weeks. North Korea
has shown no sign of denuclearization. According to some reports,
Mike Pompeo was demanding that the North Koreans should produce a list
of all its secret nuclear and missile development sites, so that
inspections can begin. According to another report, Pompeo is asking
that North Korea hand over 60-70% of its nuclear warheads, so that
another country can remove them from North Korea. Intelligence
officials say that North Korea is unwilling to agree to either of
these steps, even under considerable concessions from the American
side.
Furthermore, the US has found that shipping and trading firms based in
China, Russia and Singapore have been using clandestine methods to
cheat on the United Nations sanctions,
So there was really no point to the Pompeo-Kim meeting anyway, so
cancelling the meeting makes sense just from that point of view alone.
But it also shows that -- take your pick -- Trump is completely
unhinged or a hardheaded negotiator. Whichever one the politicians in
Pyongyang, Beijing and Seoul believe, they still have to deal with
Trump, and maybe North Korea will be willing to get rid of at a least
10% of its nuclear arsenal. It's possible that's what Trump is hoping
for. South China Morning Post and Vox and Politico and Vox (8-Aug)
Related Articles:
- US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe North Korea strategy, as sanctions are violated (06-Aug-2018)
- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site (26-Jul-2018)
- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, South Korea,
Mike Pompeo, Kim Jong-un,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
