08-28-2018, 10:14 PM
*** 29-Aug-18 World View -- China ends two-child policy, but considers a 'wacky' three-child policy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China ends two-child policy, but considers a 'wacky' three-child policy
****
![[Image: g180828b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180828b.jpg)
China's new Year of the Pig stamps
For four decades, China has been attempting to control family planning
decisions for individual families through the "one-child policy,"
announced in 1979, which called for forced abortions, forced
sterilizations, and harsh fines to prevent families from having more
than one child, and which was revised to a "two-child policy" in March
2016, allowing two children instead of just one.
Early in August, China's government announced new postage stamps to be
used starting in the Year of the Pig, next year. One of the stamps
displays a happy family of five pigs, a mama pig, a papa pig, and
three little baby pigs.
To many Chinese, these Year of the Pig stamps appeared to confirm
long-rumored plans to eliminate even the two-child restriction. This
claim was reinforced by the memory that in 2016, the Year of the
Monkey, China had released a similar stamp showing two baby monkeys.
However, Chinese officials denied this claim about the 3-piglet stamps
when they were announced three weeks ago. In particular, the designer
of the stamps, 81-year-old Chinese folk artist Han Meilin denied this
claim through his spokesman, who said that Han decided to draw three
piglets because they made the composition of the painting more
balanced. Moreover, the five pigs on the stamp echo an auspicious
Chinese proverb "five blessings gathering together" and the design is
set to bring good luck to the public in the coming year, according to
the spokesman.
Well those denials are now turning out to be false. China announced
in a Weibo social media post on Monday that all family planning matter
has been removed from the new draft civil code that is scheduled for
enactment in March 2020.
This means that all family planning controls should end. There will
be no more one-child policy, no more two-child policy, no more forced
abortions, no more forced sterilizations, and no more harsh fines.
According to Zhang Juwei, director of the state-run Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences’ Institute of Population and Labor Economics, "It has
become an irresistible trend to allow people to make their own
decisions on fertility, which will be the direction for the adjustment
of population policy in the future." Daily Mail (8-Aug) and Reuters and South China Morning Post
****
**** China evaluates the failure of the two-child policy
****
The one-child policy was arguably a disaster for China's society.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized. If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.
The negative consequences of the one-child policy were apparent almost
as soon as it was adopted in 1979. The policy accelerated the aging
of the population, and a decline in the working-age population, which
threatened economic growth. Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer
elderly people could be cared for by their children.
The one-child policy did have an effect on the demographics of China's
population. The most well-known is that many parents aborted their
unborn babies when ultrasounds showed that the babies were girls,
because many parents wanted a boy who would take care of his parents
when they got old, something that girls rarely did. The sex ratio
peaked at 121/100 (121 boys for each 100 girls) in 2005, with recent
estimates at 116/100, and as high as 140/100 in parts of rural central
China.
Aborting girl babies creates a vicious cycle. The number of births in
a population grows exponentially based not on the total size of the
population, but rather on the number of females in the population. So
if there are fewer girls, then there will be fewer females, and fewer
births. This vicious cycle is in fact occurring, as statisticians are
predicting a sharp fall in China's population in the next decade for
exactly this reason.
The two-child policy did little to improve these figures. Many
couples chose not to have a second child simply because they don't
trust the authorities, and feared reprisals. For those who do have a
second child, the birth ratio problem is exacerbated. Those with a
daughter, knowing that they could have only one more child, almost
universally aborted a female baby.
The population growth rate is below what was promised, and is far from
satisfactory. In fact, in some regions the number of births is
decreasing. In the first six months of this year, the number of
births in many provinces in mainland China fell by 15-20% from the
year before. East Asia Forum and US National Institutes of Health
****
**** China may adopt a 'wacky' policy with a 'reproduction fund'
****
With the failure of the one-child policy and the two-child policy, one
of the proposals being considered, sometimes called the three-child
policy because of the three piglets, is receiving massive outrage in
China.
The proposal is to impose a brand new tax on all working adults under
age 40, and put the money into a "reproduction fund." The money would
go to subsidize families with more than one child.
Although it's only a proposal, many women fear that it's a return to
forced family planning by China's government. Whereas the Chinese
government used fines, forced abortions and sterilizations to prevent
unapproved births under the one-child policy, under the new policy the
Chinese government would use heavy taxes to effectively force women to
have a second child, whether she wants it or not. So the government
would be back in the family planning business as soon as it got out.
According to one female journalist commenting on the new Year of the
Pig stamps, "However, we are not pigs. And when it comes to having
babies, we should have free will, and the freedom to choose."
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and South China Morning Post
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Year of the Pig, Year of the Monkey,
one-child policy, two-child policy, three-child policy,
reproduction fund, Han Meilin, Zhang Juwei
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China ends two-child policy, but considers a 'wacky' three-child policy
- China evaluates the failure of the two-child policy
- China may adopt a 'wacky' policy with a 'reproduction fund'
****
**** China ends two-child policy, but considers a 'wacky' three-child policy
****
China's new Year of the Pig stamps
For four decades, China has been attempting to control family planning
decisions for individual families through the "one-child policy,"
announced in 1979, which called for forced abortions, forced
sterilizations, and harsh fines to prevent families from having more
than one child, and which was revised to a "two-child policy" in March
2016, allowing two children instead of just one.
Early in August, China's government announced new postage stamps to be
used starting in the Year of the Pig, next year. One of the stamps
displays a happy family of five pigs, a mama pig, a papa pig, and
three little baby pigs.
To many Chinese, these Year of the Pig stamps appeared to confirm
long-rumored plans to eliminate even the two-child restriction. This
claim was reinforced by the memory that in 2016, the Year of the
Monkey, China had released a similar stamp showing two baby monkeys.
However, Chinese officials denied this claim about the 3-piglet stamps
when they were announced three weeks ago. In particular, the designer
of the stamps, 81-year-old Chinese folk artist Han Meilin denied this
claim through his spokesman, who said that Han decided to draw three
piglets because they made the composition of the painting more
balanced. Moreover, the five pigs on the stamp echo an auspicious
Chinese proverb "five blessings gathering together" and the design is
set to bring good luck to the public in the coming year, according to
the spokesman.
Well those denials are now turning out to be false. China announced
in a Weibo social media post on Monday that all family planning matter
has been removed from the new draft civil code that is scheduled for
enactment in March 2020.
This means that all family planning controls should end. There will
be no more one-child policy, no more two-child policy, no more forced
abortions, no more forced sterilizations, and no more harsh fines.
According to Zhang Juwei, director of the state-run Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences’ Institute of Population and Labor Economics, "It has
become an irresistible trend to allow people to make their own
decisions on fertility, which will be the direction for the adjustment
of population policy in the future." Daily Mail (8-Aug) and Reuters and South China Morning Post
****
**** China evaluates the failure of the two-child policy
****
The one-child policy was arguably a disaster for China's society.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized. If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.
The negative consequences of the one-child policy were apparent almost
as soon as it was adopted in 1979. The policy accelerated the aging
of the population, and a decline in the working-age population, which
threatened economic growth. Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer
elderly people could be cared for by their children.
The one-child policy did have an effect on the demographics of China's
population. The most well-known is that many parents aborted their
unborn babies when ultrasounds showed that the babies were girls,
because many parents wanted a boy who would take care of his parents
when they got old, something that girls rarely did. The sex ratio
peaked at 121/100 (121 boys for each 100 girls) in 2005, with recent
estimates at 116/100, and as high as 140/100 in parts of rural central
China.
Aborting girl babies creates a vicious cycle. The number of births in
a population grows exponentially based not on the total size of the
population, but rather on the number of females in the population. So
if there are fewer girls, then there will be fewer females, and fewer
births. This vicious cycle is in fact occurring, as statisticians are
predicting a sharp fall in China's population in the next decade for
exactly this reason.
The two-child policy did little to improve these figures. Many
couples chose not to have a second child simply because they don't
trust the authorities, and feared reprisals. For those who do have a
second child, the birth ratio problem is exacerbated. Those with a
daughter, knowing that they could have only one more child, almost
universally aborted a female baby.
The population growth rate is below what was promised, and is far from
satisfactory. In fact, in some regions the number of births is
decreasing. In the first six months of this year, the number of
births in many provinces in mainland China fell by 15-20% from the
year before. East Asia Forum and US National Institutes of Health
****
**** China may adopt a 'wacky' policy with a 'reproduction fund'
****
With the failure of the one-child policy and the two-child policy, one
of the proposals being considered, sometimes called the three-child
policy because of the three piglets, is receiving massive outrage in
China.
The proposal is to impose a brand new tax on all working adults under
age 40, and put the money into a "reproduction fund." The money would
go to subsidize families with more than one child.
Although it's only a proposal, many women fear that it's a return to
forced family planning by China's government. Whereas the Chinese
government used fines, forced abortions and sterilizations to prevent
unapproved births under the one-child policy, under the new policy the
Chinese government would use heavy taxes to effectively force women to
have a second child, whether she wants it or not. So the government
would be back in the family planning business as soon as it got out.
According to one female journalist commenting on the new Year of the
Pig stamps, "However, we are not pigs. And when it comes to having
babies, we should have free will, and the freedom to choose."
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and South China Morning Post
Related Articles:
- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births (22-May-2018)
- China's end of one-child policy doesn't dent Vietnamese wife trade (18-Nov-2013)
- Chinese peasants use fertility drugs to get around 'one-child' policy (26-May-2007)
- A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster (17-Nov-2008)
- Boys, boys, boys! China is running out of girls. (01-Feb-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Year of the Pig, Year of the Monkey,
one-child policy, two-child policy, three-child policy,
reproduction fund, Han Meilin, Zhang Juwei
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
