09-09-2018, 10:54 PM
*** 10-Sep-18 World View -- In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
****
![[Image: g180909b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180909b.jpg)
Protesters outside the burning Iran consulate in Basra on Friday (Reuters)
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took credit on Sunday
for Saturday's sophisticated missile attack on the bases of two
military anti-Iran opposition groups in Koya near Erbil in Kurdistan
in northern Iraq. The two groups are fighting for greater autonomy
for Iran’s Kurdish community.
The two groups are the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI)
and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-I). Referring to the
dissidents as "criminal groups," the IRGC statement said:
<QUOTE>"In a successful operation, the Guards’ aerospace
unit, along with the army’s drone unit ... targeted a criminal
group’s meeting and a terrorist training centre with seven
short-range surface-to-surface missiles.
[The group's leaders decided] to ignore serious warnings by
officials of the Kurdistan Regional Government about Iran’s
determination to dismantle their bases ... and the need for an end
to terrorist and aggressive actions against Iran."<END QUOTE>
The missile attacks were apparently very well planned for several
weeks in advance. The attack on the meeting room was very precise,
and occurred when the meeting was in progress. Seven missiles were
used in the attacks, killing 11 people and wounding dozens more.
As we reported yesterday,
anti-Iran rioters in the southern Iraqi city Basra stormed and burned
down Iran's consulate in Basra. This act infuriated the Iranian
officials in Tehran, who summoned the Iraqi ambassador to Tehran to
protest the attack, and issued this statement:
<QUOTE>"The Persian Gulf Director General of Iranian Foreign
Ministry [Mohammad Farazmand] voiced surprise over immobility of
Basra police and said that despite the promises given by the Iraqi
officials through diplomatic channels reassuring about the safety
of Iran’s consulate general which was threatened by the
provocation of some suspicious elements, the Iraqi government did
not deliver on its promises."<END QUOTE>
Even though Iran's missile attack on Erbil occurred a day after the
Basra rioters' attack on the Iranian consulate, it's not believed that
the two incidents are directly related, since the missile attack had
apparently been in preparation for weeks. Nonetheless, anti-Iran
protests have been simmering for a long time in Basra, and Iran may
have wanted to send a message that the anti-Iran protests will not be
tolerated.
On Sunday, Iraqi officials issued a statement condemning Iran's
missile strike -- not because the strike occurred, but but because it
occurred without first warning Iraq's government and coordinating with
the Iraqi military:
<QUOTE>"The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stresses its
rejection of the artillery shelling that targeted Koy Sanjaq
district in Erbil on Saturday, leaving scores dead and wounded.
The ministry strongly refuses the breaching of Iraqi sovereignty
without prior coordination with Iraqi military authorities to
avoid the fall of civilian victims."<END QUOTE>
So, the second message that Iran is sending is that it can strike deep
into Iraqi territory any time it wants, without notifying the Iraqi
military in advance.
The two countries fought an extremely bloody war, the Iran-Iraq war,
killing 1.5 million people, and climaxing in 1988 with Saddam Hussein
and Iraq using chemical weapons against both the Kurds and the
Iranians. Iran's missile attack on Erbil is a major escalation in the
tensions between the two countries, and a further evocation of
memories of the Iran-Iraq war.
Iraq's government is in complete disarray, with a parliament that has
had only two sessions since the inconclusive elections in May, and is
unable even to elect a speaker.
As I described yesterday,
even
though it's mostly Shia Muslim government, Iraqi Shiism has a
different theology than Iran's Shiism, and there are political splits
over aligning with the United States or with Iran.
So the second message that Iran sent along with its missiles is that
siding with the US against Iran id going to have a cost.
The third message being sent by the missile strike is to Israel. The
missiles used on Saturday were extremely precise and coordinated with
the drone surveillance. These missiles are considerably more
sophisticated than Iran has used in the past, and they may have been
distributed to Syria or Hezbollah, to be used against Israel.
Iraqi News and Mehr News (Tehran) and Reuters and
Jerusalem Post
****
**** Iran's missile attack displays the rising power of the IRGC in Iran
****
Saturday's missile attack was launched by the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC), which has become increasingly powerful.
As I described yesterday,
at the
time of the 1979 revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini reinterpreted Shia
theology to make himself equivalent to an infallible Imam, and
therefore essentially a dictator. He created the IRGC to prevent any
outside coups, and to give himself absolute power.
The death of Khomeini in 1989, and the succession as supreme leader by
Ali Khamenei, allowed the IRGC to expand its power. The IRGC led the
extremely bloody and violent crackdown against peaceful protesters
after the fraudulent 2009 presidential election, and then again in
the widespread anti-government demonstrations
that erupted in late 2017 and early 2018.
Since January, the IRGC has become even more belligerent, particularly
in the face of the Trump administrations plans to re-implement
sanctions on Iran that were removed following the 2015 nuclear deal.
Recently General Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the IRGC Navy, said
that Iran had full control of the Gulf of Hormuz, and that it could
take military action to block other countries' oil exports in
retaliation for U.S. sanctions intended to halt its sales of crude.
According to Tangsiri:
<QUOTE>"We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and
there is no need for the presence of aliens like the U.S. and the
countries whose home is not in here.
All the carriers and military and non-military ships will be
controlled and there is full supervision over the Persian
Gulf. Our presence in the region is physical and constant and
night and day."<END QUOTE>
The IRGC was originally created to protect the regime from a coup.
Although there have been no overt signs of it, there are some fears
that the IRGC will itself launch a coup and create a military
dictatorship. Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and Reuters
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Basra, Erbil, Koya,
Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PDKI,
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, KDP-I,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Iran-Iraq war, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Mohammad Farazmand, Israel, Alireza Tangsiri, Gulf of Hormuz
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
- Iran's missile attack displays the rising power of the IRGC in Iran
****
**** In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
****
Protesters outside the burning Iran consulate in Basra on Friday (Reuters)
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took credit on Sunday
for Saturday's sophisticated missile attack on the bases of two
military anti-Iran opposition groups in Koya near Erbil in Kurdistan
in northern Iraq. The two groups are fighting for greater autonomy
for Iran’s Kurdish community.
The two groups are the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI)
and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-I). Referring to the
dissidents as "criminal groups," the IRGC statement said:
<QUOTE>"In a successful operation, the Guards’ aerospace
unit, along with the army’s drone unit ... targeted a criminal
group’s meeting and a terrorist training centre with seven
short-range surface-to-surface missiles.
[The group's leaders decided] to ignore serious warnings by
officials of the Kurdistan Regional Government about Iran’s
determination to dismantle their bases ... and the need for an end
to terrorist and aggressive actions against Iran."<END QUOTE>
The missile attacks were apparently very well planned for several
weeks in advance. The attack on the meeting room was very precise,
and occurred when the meeting was in progress. Seven missiles were
used in the attacks, killing 11 people and wounding dozens more.
As we reported yesterday,
anti-Iran rioters in the southern Iraqi city Basra stormed and burned
down Iran's consulate in Basra. This act infuriated the Iranian
officials in Tehran, who summoned the Iraqi ambassador to Tehran to
protest the attack, and issued this statement:
<QUOTE>"The Persian Gulf Director General of Iranian Foreign
Ministry [Mohammad Farazmand] voiced surprise over immobility of
Basra police and said that despite the promises given by the Iraqi
officials through diplomatic channels reassuring about the safety
of Iran’s consulate general which was threatened by the
provocation of some suspicious elements, the Iraqi government did
not deliver on its promises."<END QUOTE>
Even though Iran's missile attack on Erbil occurred a day after the
Basra rioters' attack on the Iranian consulate, it's not believed that
the two incidents are directly related, since the missile attack had
apparently been in preparation for weeks. Nonetheless, anti-Iran
protests have been simmering for a long time in Basra, and Iran may
have wanted to send a message that the anti-Iran protests will not be
tolerated.
On Sunday, Iraqi officials issued a statement condemning Iran's
missile strike -- not because the strike occurred, but but because it
occurred without first warning Iraq's government and coordinating with
the Iraqi military:
<QUOTE>"The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stresses its
rejection of the artillery shelling that targeted Koy Sanjaq
district in Erbil on Saturday, leaving scores dead and wounded.
The ministry strongly refuses the breaching of Iraqi sovereignty
without prior coordination with Iraqi military authorities to
avoid the fall of civilian victims."<END QUOTE>
So, the second message that Iran is sending is that it can strike deep
into Iraqi territory any time it wants, without notifying the Iraqi
military in advance.
The two countries fought an extremely bloody war, the Iran-Iraq war,
killing 1.5 million people, and climaxing in 1988 with Saddam Hussein
and Iraq using chemical weapons against both the Kurds and the
Iranians. Iran's missile attack on Erbil is a major escalation in the
tensions between the two countries, and a further evocation of
memories of the Iran-Iraq war.
Iraq's government is in complete disarray, with a parliament that has
had only two sessions since the inconclusive elections in May, and is
unable even to elect a speaker.
As I described yesterday,
even
though it's mostly Shia Muslim government, Iraqi Shiism has a
different theology than Iran's Shiism, and there are political splits
over aligning with the United States or with Iran.
So the second message that Iran sent along with its missiles is that
siding with the US against Iran id going to have a cost.
The third message being sent by the missile strike is to Israel. The
missiles used on Saturday were extremely precise and coordinated with
the drone surveillance. These missiles are considerably more
sophisticated than Iran has used in the past, and they may have been
distributed to Syria or Hezbollah, to be used against Israel.
Iraqi News and Mehr News (Tehran) and Reuters and
Jerusalem Post
****
**** Iran's missile attack displays the rising power of the IRGC in Iran
****
Saturday's missile attack was launched by the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC), which has become increasingly powerful.
As I described yesterday,
at the
time of the 1979 revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini reinterpreted Shia
theology to make himself equivalent to an infallible Imam, and
therefore essentially a dictator. He created the IRGC to prevent any
outside coups, and to give himself absolute power.
The death of Khomeini in 1989, and the succession as supreme leader by
Ali Khamenei, allowed the IRGC to expand its power. The IRGC led the
extremely bloody and violent crackdown against peaceful protesters
after the fraudulent 2009 presidential election, and then again in
the widespread anti-government demonstrations
that erupted in late 2017 and early 2018.
Since January, the IRGC has become even more belligerent, particularly
in the face of the Trump administrations plans to re-implement
sanctions on Iran that were removed following the 2015 nuclear deal.
Recently General Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the IRGC Navy, said
that Iran had full control of the Gulf of Hormuz, and that it could
take military action to block other countries' oil exports in
retaliation for U.S. sanctions intended to halt its sales of crude.
According to Tangsiri:
<QUOTE>"We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and
there is no need for the presence of aliens like the U.S. and the
countries whose home is not in here.
All the carriers and military and non-military ships will be
controlled and there is full supervision over the Persian
Gulf. Our presence in the region is physical and constant and
night and day."<END QUOTE>
The IRGC was originally created to protect the regime from a coup.
Although there have been no overt signs of it, there are some fears
that the IRGC will itself launch a coup and create a military
dictatorship. Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and Reuters
Related Articles:
- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship (02-Jan-2018)
- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Basra, Erbil, Koya,
Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PDKI,
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, KDP-I,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Iran-Iraq war, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Mohammad Farazmand, Israel, Alireza Tangsiri, Gulf of Hormuz
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
