Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Sep-18 World View -- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
  
• China increasingly rejects Duterte's 'diplomatic actions'
  
• Zambia becomes the next nation to fall victim to China's 'debt trap'
  

****
**** Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
****


Xi Jinping and rodrigo Duterte meet in Hainan, China, in April 2018 (EPA)

Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte was taking office in 2016 at
just about the time that the Philippines won a historic case in the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague thoroughly
humiliating China by ruling that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.

Duterte's first acts in office were to cutoff relations with the
United States, and to take a trip to Beijing, where he was given the
red carpet treatment by China's president Xi Jinping. Duterte
indicated that he would not enforce the Tribunal ruling, and in fact
appeared to be giving Scarborough Shoal away to the Chinese.

The international headlines at the time were things like "Duterte's
flip-flop into bed with China is a disaster for the United States."
( "23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China"
)

As I wrote at the time, the "flip-flop" couldn't possibly last, for
several reasons: Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable
view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States.
Also, the Philippine people historically hate the Chinese, while the
Chinese people historically hate the Philippine people. In 2012, a
Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed
that the Philippines "is China's inherent
territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is
an indisputable fact."

So the leaders of China and the Philippines can make deals if they
like, but we know from generational theory that major decisions like
that are made by the people, entire generations, not by the
politicians. So there was never any chance that the "flip-flop" would
last.

Duterte's decision on China was never really popular, and generated
immediate backlash at home, but it was reluctantly accepted by the
Philippine people because the alternative appeared to be war with
China if the Philippines tried to enforce the Tribunal's ruling in the
South China Sea.

In fact, in May of last year, Duterte explained his decision by
recounting a conversation he had with Xi Jinping a year earlier, in
which Xi threatened war:

<QUOTE>"Duterte: Mr. Xi Jinping, I will insist that it is
ours and we will drill oil. [T]hat is ours and we intend to drill
oil there. My view is I can drill the oil.

Xi: Well we are friends. We don’t want to quarrel with you. We
want to maintain warm relationship, but if you force the issue we
will go to war.

Duterte: I’ll drill the oil.

Xi: Please do not do that because that is ours.

Duterte: That is according to you. But I have the arbitral
[referring to the Hague tribunal ruling].

Xi: Yes, but ours is historical and yours is legal of recent
memory.

Duterte: But that’s too far away. It’s almost alien to us to hear
those words because we were never under Chinese jurisdiction.

Xi: Well, if you force the issue, we’ll be forced to tell you the
truth.

Duterte: So what is the truth?

Xi: We will go to war. We will fight you."<END QUOTE>

After recounting the conversation, Duterte added:

<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>

So Duterte decided that he had to accede to China's threats.

As part of Duterte's agreement with China, China promised to deliver
$24 billion investments in 27 different projects. Duterte repeatedly
touted China’s financial help as a key reason for pivoting away from
the U.S. and Europe, which he said haven’t produced material gains for
the Philippines.

But by 2018, it turns out that the $24 billion investment promise was
an empty promise. A $1 billion, 300-megawatt hydropower plant was
never begun. A $700 million stainless steel plant was put on hold. A
project to raise three islands from a waterlogged area was canceled.
ABS-CBN (19-May-2017) and Bloomberg (25-Jul-2018)


****
**** China increasingly rejects Duterte's 'diplomatic actions'
****

Since 2016, Duterte has tried with some success to use bilateral
negotiations to resolve the South China Sea disputes. However, a
series of belligerent Chinese actions in 2018 had caused Duterte to be
increasingly critical of China in public statements:

• China has fortified its militarism in the South China Sea,
  violating its own promise that its intentions were peaceful.
  
  
• China landed bomber aircraft on territory claimed by the
  Philippines and asserted its presence at Sandy Cay in the Spratly
  Island chain. Duterte's spokesman said, "The President (Rodrigo
  Duterte), who is the chief architect of the nation’s foreign policy,
  will not sit on our rights and will never give away even an inch of
  territory. The current administration has acted on incidents which
  occurred in the disputed areas over the West Philippine Sea by taking
  diplomatic actions with China. Indeed, we will resort to all
  diplomatic initiatives when warranted but without fanfare." ABS-CBN (31-May-2018)
  
  
• A Philippine government report in August said that Philippine
  military aircraft had received threats from China at least 46 times,
  while patrolling in international airspace near the artificial islands
  that China build in the Spratly archipelago. In one case, a plane
  received a threat: “Philippine military aircraft, I am warning you
  again, leave immediately or you will pay the possible consequences.”
  The Filipino pilot later “sighted two flare warning signals from the
  reef." AP
  
  
• Duterte said that China's claim "is wrong," and Beijing should not
  tell others to leave those areas to avoid possible clashes: "They have
  to rethink that, because that would be a flashpoint someday and even,
  you know, warning others. You cannot create an island, it’s man-made,
  and you say that the air above these artificial islands is yours."
  Panay News (16-Aug)
  
  
• Duterte criticized China's actions in the South China Sea. "I
  hope that China would temper at least its behavior. I do not want to
  quarrel with China." CNN (15-Aug)
  
  
• Duterte criticized China for using "nasty words," referring to
  numerous threats directed at the Philippines: "You know very well that
  we will not attack. ... We’re not prepared to go to war with you so
  why do you have to say those nasty words?" ABS-CBN (17-Aug)
  
  
• In a speech a week later, Duterte joked that he would send his
  Interior Department head, a former military chief, to attach the
  Chinese if the exploit resources in the South China Sea. He was
  particularly referring to uranium and oil. ABS-CBN (22-Aug)

Duterte's honeymoon with China, if it ever existed, appears to be
over. Duterte now says that he plans to talk to US President Donald
Trump about the possible purchase of military equipment for the
military and the police. Philippine Star

Related Articles

• Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea (30-May-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• China snubs Philippines on humanitarian aid, then backs down (15-Nov-2013)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

****
**** Zambia becomes the next nation to fall victim to China's 'debt trap'
****

Zambia is one of 50 African nations whose leaders visited Beijing last
week to hear Xi Jinping promise $60 billion in aid to Africa for
infrastructure projects. This aid is in the form of loans that must
be repaid.

Now Zambia is in talks with China over a possible takeover of the
country's electricity company, ZEWASCO, after defaulting on loan
repayment from a previous loan.

As I described in my article last week,
China structures the aid agreements without concern for
whether the loan can be repaid, since China then has the option of
taking control of the country's infrastructure in case of default.

As I explained, it's actually worse than that. China loans the money
to the country, and requires that it only be used to pay the salaries
of Chinese workers, and to purchase parts and equipment from Chinese
factories. So the money is immediately returned to China, but still
has to be repaid, so the country is effectively forced to repay the
loan twice. After default, and the Chinese take control of the
infrastructure project, there is an enclave of Chinese workers and
their families who will be there forever. Pulse Live (Kenya)

Related Articles

• China courts African nations as charges of 'neo-colonialism' grow (04-Sep-2018)
  
  
• China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' (14-Jul-2018)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
Scarborough Shoal, Zambia, ZEWASCO

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe