Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Sep-18 World View -- Myanmar signs 'debt trap' agreement with China in response to Rohingya genocide censure

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Myanmar (Burma) and China agree to build China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)
  • Myanmar signs 'debt trap' agreement with China in response to Rohingya genocide censure

****
**** Myanmar (Burma) and China agree to build China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)
****


[Image: g180920b.jpg]
Map of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor - CMEC (The Irrawaddy)

Earlier this month, Myanmar (Burma) signed a series of memos of
understanding (MOUs) for joint construction with China to build the
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is part of China's Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI). The CMEC will focus on 12 areas including
basic infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture,
transport, finance, human resource development and telecommunications.

According to the CMEC proposal, construction will begin with 24
projects costing $2 billion at the beginning, increasing later. The
corridor will start from Kunming, the capital of China’s Yunnan
Province. It will continue for 1,700-kilometers, through Myanmar’s
major economic hubs, ending at Myanmar's deep sea port in Kyaukphyu in
Rakhine State on the Bay of Bengal, leading to the Indian Ocean.

The project will create thousands of jobs for Burmese workers, but it
will provide far larger benefits for Chinese companies and workers.
The proposal claims that the CMEC would allow a direct flow of Chinese
goods into the southern and western regions of Myanmar and that
Chinese industries could transfer into Myanmar in order to abate the
rising labor cost and overcapacity of China’s industries. It said that
Myanmar would become a major trade hub for Chinese goods, between
China, Southeast Asia and South Asia.

Thus, the proposal indicates that this will be a huge boon for China's
industries. China is already developing the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), connecting Xinjiang province in northwest China
through Pakistan to the Gwadar port and the Indian ocean. CMEC would
provide a second corridor for transporting Chinese goods to the Indian
Ocean, this time from Yunnan province in southwest China.

CPEC and CMEC provide two routes to the Indian Ocean, thus reducing
China's reliance on the Malacca straits — the narrow passage that
links the Indian Ocean with the Pacific, and which is dominated by the
United States. Global Times (China) and The Diplomat and The Irrawaddy (6-Jul)

****
**** Myanmar signs 'debt trap' agreement with China in response to Rohingya genocide censure
****


Since November 2017, when China announced the proposal to build CMEC,
Myanmar's public and media have raised a number of concerns.

First, the CMEC project runs ethnic conflict zones in Shan and Kachin
states near the border with China, and and in Rakhine State, near the
border with Bangladesh, where ethnic Rohingyas have been subjected to
genocide and ethnic cleansing by the Burmese army. The project could
provoke further conflicts in these ethnic areas, and even subject the
project and the Chinese workers to terrorist attacks. This is already
happening in the Balochistan region of Pakistan, affecting the CPEC
project.

Second, the Burmese public is very aware of the "debt trap" issue,
where China funds the infrastructure project with billions of dollars
that have to be paid back, or else forfeit land and infrastructure
that has been put up as collateral for the loans. The Burmese are
very well aware Sri Lanka lost its $1 billion Hambantota seaport in
exactly that way, and now the seaport and a substantial amount of land
around the seaport are occupied by the Chinese and thousands of
Chinese workers.

As I've described in the past,

China structures the aid agreements without concern for whether the
loan can be repaid, since China then has the option of taking control
of the country's infrastructure in case of default.

As I explained, it's actually worse than that. China loans the money
to the country, and requires that it only be used to pay the salaries
of Chinese workers, and to purchase parts and equipment from Chinese
factories. So the money is immediately returned to China, but still
has to be repaid, so the country is effectively forced to repay the
loan twice. After default, and the Chinese take control of the
infrastructure project, there is an enclave of Chinese workers and
their families who will be there forever.

Myanmar's Kyaukphyu seaport is not the only project facing debt-trap
concerns. For the CMEC agreement, there are industrial zones,
railways, roads and other infrastructure projects to be built along
the corridor for which Myanmar cannot find financing.

In a bit of black humor, Ning Jizhe, head of China’s National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) claimed that China's BRI
projects are not a debt trap. He said the countries with debt
problems have long-standing high debt levels which shouldn’t be blamed
on the BRI. But of course it's exactly people with debt problems
that loan sharks and payday loan operators prey on by offering
extortionary loans and then sending thugs out to collect the
loans in whatever way they can.

Myanmar's government in fact dropped a couple of projects related to
the Kyaukphyu seaport in July, in order to reduce the amount of debt.
However, the initial loan will still be $2 billion.

However, there are several reasons why Myanmar felt forced
to go ahead with CMEC proposal, even though it's almost impossible
that the debt will be repaid.

First, Myanmar is an economically weak country which, even in the best
of times, is unable to borrow money due to lack of transparency in its
government expenses and its relationship with China. According ton
one analyst, "Raising capital overseas will also likely be challenging
given that foreign investors will likely find it difficult to
determine Myanmar’s creditworthiness due to the lack of information."

Second, the United States is imposing sanctions on Myanmar, and
Australia is considering doing the same, because of the genocide and
ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas in the last seven years. Myanmar has
been extremely successful in its genocide and ethnic cleansing
efforts. Genocide and ethnic cleansing efforts by Bashar al-Assad in
Syria and Joseph Kabila in DR Congo have not yet been successful, and
are still ongoing. But Myanmar appears to have pretty much completed
the job.

The sanctions mean that whatever Myanmar's chances of borrowing money
internationally in the past, it will be almost impossible after the
sanctions are imposed. The threat of sanctions is isolating Myanmar
even further, so that its closest friend in China, where government
officials really don't care about such things as genocide and ethnic
cleansing.

So if the word "trapped" applies to any country, then it certainly
applies to Burma. China will certainly use its leverage to control
policies and developments in Burma in whatever way it feels necessary,
and will apparently receive full cooperation. The Irrawaddy (Burma) and Myanmar Times (7-Jul) and The Hindu

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, China,
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, CMEC,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Yunnan, Kyaukphyu seaport, Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean,
Shan state, Kachin State, Rakhine State, Bangladesh,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Balochistan,
Ning Jizhe, National Development and Reform Commission, NDRC,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, DR Congo, Joseph Kabila

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
21-Sep-18 World View -- Myanmar signs 'debt trap' agreement with China in response to - by John J. Xenakis - 09-20-2018, 10:53 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,797 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,385 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,659 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,215 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,321 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)