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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 26-Sep-18 World View -- World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo
  • Violence escalates in North Kivu, DRC, along with Ebola

****
**** World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo
****


[Image: g180925b.jpg]
A makeshift site for internally displace people in North Kivu province of DRC (UNHCR)

The latest outbreak of Ebola in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was
identified on August 1 in North Kivu province of DRC, near the borders
with Rwanda and Uganda. Since then, Ebola has been spreading fairly
rapidly. As of Tuesday, there are 119 confirmed cases, and 69
confirmed deaths from Ebola.

This outbreak has already become the seventh largest Ebola outbreak in
history.

As we reported a month ago ( "25-Aug-18 World View -- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo"
), Dr. Peter Salama, from
the World Health Organization (WHO), said that WHO was extremely
concerned because the disease was already spreading, and had reached
an "area of very high insecurity," because it was in densely populated
tribal war zone.

Now Salama's level of concern appears to have grown considerably. At
a news conference on Tuesday he said:

<QUOTE>"We are now extremely concerned that several factors
may be coming together over the next weeks and months to create a
potential perfect storm: A perfect storm of active conflict,
limiting our ability to access civilians, distress by segments of
the community, already traumatized by decades of conflict and of
murder."<END QUOTE>


Salama is particularly concerned about attacks on ordinary civilians
and on WHO personnel in and around the territory of Beni, which is the
base of WHO's operation. “We’ve seen attacks now on August 24,
September 3, 9, 11, 16, 21 and most recently and most dramatically
September 22 in the city itself of Beni. The ADF in particular has
enormous capabilities. They’ve been able to overrun entire
FARDC-bases in and around Beni, they’ve been able to ambush (UN)
forces." United Nations and Times Live (South Africa) and Reuters and AFP

****
**** Violence escalates in North Kivu, DRC, along with Ebola
****


The militia that Salama named as having "enormous capabilities is the
ADF, which is the Alliance of Democratic Forces, a group of Islamists
formed in the late 1990s in western Uganda to fight the government of
Uganda. Since then they've taken their mayhem and murder to North
Kivu province in DRC, and joined with other militia groups, as well as
elements of Congo's own army. The UN was particularly stunned in
December of last year, when the ADF attacked UN blue helmet peacekeepers,
killing 15 and wounding 54 in
one evening.

The fighting in North Kivu has been escalating in all six territories
of North Kivu, according to the UN's refugee agency, UNHCR. Thousands
of civilians have fled their burned out villages, bringing reports of
brutal attacks. It is estimated that more than a million people are
displaced in North Kivu. An estimated half a million people have been
forced from their homes this year alone.

The WHO's Dr. Salama mentioned a "perfect storm" of multiple risks.
One of those risks is attacks by the ADP and other armed militias. A
second risk is that politicians are attempting to exploit the
situation, with elections scheduled for December.

A third risk is "pockets of reluctance, refusal and resistance" by
civilians contacted by WHO workers. Many of the new cases of Ebola
are being generated by people who are refusing to accept an Ebola
vaccination. On Monday 80 percent of Ebola contacts — people at risk
of developing the disease and so requiring monitoring — and three
suspected cases in and around Beni could not be reached for disease
monitoring. This kind of contact is the only way to stop the further
spread of Ebola. If WHO workers can perform vaccinations or contact
tracing, and cannot isolate people who have already contracted the
disease, there is nothing to stop it from spreading rapidly.

Salama says that neighboring Uganda is now facing an “imminent
threat”, and social media posts were conflating Ebola with criticism
of the DRC government and the United Nations and “a range of
conspiracy theories”, which could put health workers at risk.

WHO currently has no plans to evacuate its health workers, but that
could change if the danger to them increases. "If WHO and its
partners had to leave North Kivu ... we would have grave concerns that
this outbreak would not be able to be well controlled in the coming
weeks or months." UNHCR and WHO Situation Reports for DRC

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Beni, Ebola, Rwanda, Uganda,
World Health Organization, WHO, Peter Salama,
Alliance of Democratic Forces, ADP

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26-Sep-18 World View -- World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread - by John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2018, 10:06 PM
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