10-14-2018, 11:02 PM
*** 15-Oct-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
****
![[Image: g181014b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181014b.jpg)
Despite his boyish grin, many people believe that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi (AP)
Saudi officials appear to be in a state of shock over the harsh
international reaction to the disappearance of xxx Khashoggi almost
two weeks ago.
Khashoggi was once a close adviser to the Saudi government, but has
become persona non grata since criticizing the human rights
record of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and his
pursuit of the Yemen war, which has been a major humanitarian
disaster. The excommunication was complete when Khashoggi exiled
himself to the United States, and began publishing his criticisms of
MBS as a Washington Post reporter. Recently, he needed Saudi
government papers in order to marry his fiancé, a Turkish citizen,
Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz. He made two visits to the Saudi consulate in
Istanbul, Turkey, and he completely disappeared during the second
visit, on October 2.
Turkey's government has officially taken the position that it's still
investigating, but numerous leaks to the Turkish media indicate a
belief that Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate, and that his
body was dismembered, packed up in suitcases, and taken back to Saudi
Arabia in private Saudi planes. It's also believed that MBS ordered
the killing, and Turkism media are claiming that officials have audio
recordings of Khashoggi being interrogated and killed in the embassy.
Many people are shocked by the apparent brutality of the alleged
murder, but it seems that the biggest shock of all is that
international outrage is continuing and may be growing. MBS has been
ruthless in committing human rights abuses, arresting and imprisoning
hundreds of people without trials. There have been numerous
complaints that he decreed that women would be permitted to drive, but
then he ordered the arrest of some of the women who did drive. And of
course he's pursued the Yemen war mercilessly. He's done all this
with impunity and little uproar. What's surprising is the uproar in
this case.
There have been international public demands for the Saudis to explain
what happened, and there have been threats from the White House and
from officials in Britain, France and Germany, including threats of
sanctions by Donald Trump. Saudi Arabia has angrily denied the
accusations, and threatened sanctions in return -- presumably to use
oil as a weapon. AP and
CNN and Reuters and Al Jazeera (Qatar)
****
**** Negotiations follow the pattern of N. Korea's 2010 torpedoing of S. Korean warship
****
What's becoming increasingly clear is that despite all the
international uproar, nobody has the stomach for an all-out
war -- not a military war, not a financial war, and not a sanctions
war. The US and the Europeans have demanded explanations and
investigations, but haven't made any explicit threats.
There's a recent historical event that provides an analogy to
the diplomatic pattern that's emerging.
On March 26, 2010, the North Koreans launched a torpedo at the South
Korean warship Cheonan, causing an explosion that killed 46 people.
Everyone knew immediately that the explosion was caused by a North
Korean torpedo, almost certainly ordered by Kim Jong-il, the father of
the current child dictator, but South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
refused to say so. Instead Lee continued to call for more and
more investigations.
The reason was simple. If Lee had formally accused North Korea
of sinking a South Korean warship, then South Korea would have
been forced to retaliate militarily, or even declare war. Lee
did not want to have to declare war.
The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi today has created a similar
situation, where nobody wants to let the Saudis completely off the
hook, but nobody wants a full-on financial or sanctions war.
Since the 1930s, America and Saudi Arabia have had a very specific
core understanding: That Saudi Arabia will guarantee to supply all the
oil that America and the West need, and, in return, America and the
West must guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia.
The exact details of the US-Saudi relationship have had to change from
time to time, based on international events such as Iran's revolution,
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, Syria's civil war, the
rise of ISIS. The 1973 oil embargo, which came out of Israel's war
with Egypt, cemented the US-Saudi relationship.
Today, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in US and Western
strategy. Saudi Arabia is important for Trump's strategy with
Iran, and in Trump's peace plan proposal for Israel and
the Palestinians.
The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security. The Khashoggi disappearance is
just one more event that threatens the US-Saudi accords that have been
in place since the 1930s, but all signs are that the parties will find
a way to keep the Khashoggi crisis under control. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC and
Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Reuters and Washington Examiner
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
Turkey, Jamal Khashoggi, Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz,
North Korea, Kim Jong-il, South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, Cheonan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
- Negotiations follow the pattern of N. Korea's 2010 torpedoing of S. Korean warship
****
**** Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
****
Despite his boyish grin, many people believe that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi (AP)
Saudi officials appear to be in a state of shock over the harsh
international reaction to the disappearance of xxx Khashoggi almost
two weeks ago.
Khashoggi was once a close adviser to the Saudi government, but has
become persona non grata since criticizing the human rights
record of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and his
pursuit of the Yemen war, which has been a major humanitarian
disaster. The excommunication was complete when Khashoggi exiled
himself to the United States, and began publishing his criticisms of
MBS as a Washington Post reporter. Recently, he needed Saudi
government papers in order to marry his fiancé, a Turkish citizen,
Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz. He made two visits to the Saudi consulate in
Istanbul, Turkey, and he completely disappeared during the second
visit, on October 2.
Turkey's government has officially taken the position that it's still
investigating, but numerous leaks to the Turkish media indicate a
belief that Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate, and that his
body was dismembered, packed up in suitcases, and taken back to Saudi
Arabia in private Saudi planes. It's also believed that MBS ordered
the killing, and Turkism media are claiming that officials have audio
recordings of Khashoggi being interrogated and killed in the embassy.
Many people are shocked by the apparent brutality of the alleged
murder, but it seems that the biggest shock of all is that
international outrage is continuing and may be growing. MBS has been
ruthless in committing human rights abuses, arresting and imprisoning
hundreds of people without trials. There have been numerous
complaints that he decreed that women would be permitted to drive, but
then he ordered the arrest of some of the women who did drive. And of
course he's pursued the Yemen war mercilessly. He's done all this
with impunity and little uproar. What's surprising is the uproar in
this case.
There have been international public demands for the Saudis to explain
what happened, and there have been threats from the White House and
from officials in Britain, France and Germany, including threats of
sanctions by Donald Trump. Saudi Arabia has angrily denied the
accusations, and threatened sanctions in return -- presumably to use
oil as a weapon. AP and
CNN and Reuters and Al Jazeera (Qatar)
****
**** Negotiations follow the pattern of N. Korea's 2010 torpedoing of S. Korean warship
****
What's becoming increasingly clear is that despite all the
international uproar, nobody has the stomach for an all-out
war -- not a military war, not a financial war, and not a sanctions
war. The US and the Europeans have demanded explanations and
investigations, but haven't made any explicit threats.
There's a recent historical event that provides an analogy to
the diplomatic pattern that's emerging.
On March 26, 2010, the North Koreans launched a torpedo at the South
Korean warship Cheonan, causing an explosion that killed 46 people.
Everyone knew immediately that the explosion was caused by a North
Korean torpedo, almost certainly ordered by Kim Jong-il, the father of
the current child dictator, but South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
refused to say so. Instead Lee continued to call for more and
more investigations.
The reason was simple. If Lee had formally accused North Korea
of sinking a South Korean warship, then South Korea would have
been forced to retaliate militarily, or even declare war. Lee
did not want to have to declare war.
The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi today has created a similar
situation, where nobody wants to let the Saudis completely off the
hook, but nobody wants a full-on financial or sanctions war.
Since the 1930s, America and Saudi Arabia have had a very specific
core understanding: That Saudi Arabia will guarantee to supply all the
oil that America and the West need, and, in return, America and the
West must guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia.
The exact details of the US-Saudi relationship have had to change from
time to time, based on international events such as Iran's revolution,
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, Syria's civil war, the
rise of ISIS. The 1973 oil embargo, which came out of Israel's war
with Egypt, cemented the US-Saudi relationship.
Today, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in US and Western
strategy. Saudi Arabia is important for Trump's strategy with
Iran, and in Trump's peace plan proposal for Israel and
the Palestinians.
The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security. The Khashoggi disappearance is
just one more event that threatens the US-Saudi accords that have been
in place since the 1930s, but all signs are that the parties will find
a way to keep the Khashoggi crisis under control. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC and
Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Reuters and Washington Examiner
Related Articles:
- Suspicious disappearance of Saudi journalist in Turkey threatens to upset Mideast relations (08-Oct-2018)
- Saudi Arabia threatens further sanctions against Qatar if demands are not met (04-Jul-2017)
- Donald Trump promises to solve the Gulf crisis 'fairly easily' (13-Sep-2017)
- S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea (26-Jun-2011)
- South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves (27-Mar-2011)
- S. Korean and Chinese leaders meet to discuss warship sinking (01-May-2010)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
Turkey, Jamal Khashoggi, Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz,
North Korea, Kim Jong-il, South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, Cheonan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
