10-19-2018, 10:42 PM
*** 20-Oct-18 World View -- Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
****
![[Image: g181019b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181019b.jpg)
Destroyed house after being hit by rocket on Tuesday morning in Beersheba (AP)
At 3:43 am on Tuesday, a sleeping mother and father heard warning
sirens, woke up their three children, and pulled them into a safe room
just before a Grad rocket fell through the roof of their Beersheba
home and landed in one of the second story bedrooms, almost completely
destroying the structure.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad on Tuesday denied that they were responsible
for the missile attack, but their denials were not considered
credible, since no one else has the type of Grad missile that struck
the home.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly called for a powerful
military response to Hamas:
<QUOTE>"Before going to war, we need to exhaust all other
possibilities, because when we’re sending soldiers to battle we
know that some of them aren’t returning home. We’re obligated to
exhaust every other way, every other option.
Upon entering the Defense Ministry I said — Israel has no right,
no option, no luxury to conduct wars of choice. We can conduct
only wars of no choice. In the last months we made every effort,
we’ve overturned every stone and at this point ‘no choice’ is
behind us.
We have arrived at the point where we have to land as strong as
possible a blow on Hamas."<END QUOTE>
Israel's Security Cabinet had convened for a midnight emergency
session on Thursday morning, and many Israelis believed that they
would be at war with Gaza by morning.
However, there was no war. According to reports, prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu decided that no such military attack would take
place. Israel has invaded Gaza three times in the last ten years to
put a stop to missile attacks, most recently in the 67 day summer war
in 2014. Each of these wars has ended in a ceasefire, and than after
another period of relative calm, another round of fighting begins.
Generational Dynamics predicts that there will never be a resolution
until there's a full-scale regional war between Jews and Arabs.
I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003,
when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace,"
which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote:
<QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the
extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the
Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So
far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as
it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is
awaiting a generational change.
There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that
the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon
and Yassir Arafat.
These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.
The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall
generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major
conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the
disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the
election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's
currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is
this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE>
Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud
Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its
horrors. Since then, Abbas has lost control of Hamas, which has been
run by much younger leaders.
Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and
Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely
on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas
and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza;
Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in
2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012
and July-August 2014.
These on-and-off clashes cannot go on forever. At some point, they'll
be resolved by a full-fledged generational crisis war that engulfs the
region. In the meantime, there is no chance whatsoever that any sort
of Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" will succeed, and that's just
as true today as it was in 2003. Jerusalem Post and World Israel News and Bloomberg
****
**** Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game'
****
By Thursday morning, after the emergency midnight meeting of cabinet
ministers, the fiery rhetoric had softened. Housing Minsiter Yoav
Galant said:
<QUOTE>"I can’t address the content of cabinet discussion but
I can say one thing very explicitly — the rules of the game are
going to change.
We won’t accept more fire and [border] fence terror."<END QUOTE>
However, the cabinet meeting decision not to launch a military
operation was condemned by other government leaders. According to
Regional Council head Gadi Yarkoni:
<QUOTE>"We had every reason to deliver a serious response in
a way that they would understand the message. We should have
taken advantage of what happened in Beersheba to restore
deterrence, but unfortunately that did not happen."<END QUOTE>
I googled Gadi Yarkoni, and learned that he was born in 1967, which
would put him in Israel's equivalent of Generation-X, much younger
than Netanyahu, born in 1949, or Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, or Hamas
head Khaled Mashal, born in 1956. When there's an all-out war between
Jews and Palestinians, it will be launched by younger people, such as
Yarkoni and a young Palestinian leader.
Although no full-scale war is imminent, Israel's army has been cleared
to follow more aggressive tactics. This includes a green light for
troops to fire at Gazans who are farther away from the fence than
previously allowed, as well a more forceful response to incendiary
balloon launches. According to reports, the army will ramp up the
severity of its responses gradually, but ultimately adopt a
zero-tolerance policy toward rocket attacks, arson balloons and
rioting along the Israeli border. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Beersheeba, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Avigdor Lieberman, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon,
Mahmoud Abbas, Operation Cast Lead,
Yoav Galant, Gadi Yarkoni, Khaled Mashal
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
- Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game'
****
**** Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
****
Destroyed house after being hit by rocket on Tuesday morning in Beersheba (AP)
At 3:43 am on Tuesday, a sleeping mother and father heard warning
sirens, woke up their three children, and pulled them into a safe room
just before a Grad rocket fell through the roof of their Beersheba
home and landed in one of the second story bedrooms, almost completely
destroying the structure.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad on Tuesday denied that they were responsible
for the missile attack, but their denials were not considered
credible, since no one else has the type of Grad missile that struck
the home.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly called for a powerful
military response to Hamas:
<QUOTE>"Before going to war, we need to exhaust all other
possibilities, because when we’re sending soldiers to battle we
know that some of them aren’t returning home. We’re obligated to
exhaust every other way, every other option.
Upon entering the Defense Ministry I said — Israel has no right,
no option, no luxury to conduct wars of choice. We can conduct
only wars of no choice. In the last months we made every effort,
we’ve overturned every stone and at this point ‘no choice’ is
behind us.
We have arrived at the point where we have to land as strong as
possible a blow on Hamas."<END QUOTE>
Israel's Security Cabinet had convened for a midnight emergency
session on Thursday morning, and many Israelis believed that they
would be at war with Gaza by morning.
However, there was no war. According to reports, prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu decided that no such military attack would take
place. Israel has invaded Gaza three times in the last ten years to
put a stop to missile attacks, most recently in the 67 day summer war
in 2014. Each of these wars has ended in a ceasefire, and than after
another period of relative calm, another round of fighting begins.
Generational Dynamics predicts that there will never be a resolution
until there's a full-scale regional war between Jews and Arabs.
I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003,
when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace,"
which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote:
<QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the
extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the
Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So
far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as
it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is
awaiting a generational change.
There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that
the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon
and Yassir Arafat.
These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.
The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall
generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major
conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the
disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the
election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's
currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is
this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE>
Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud
Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its
horrors. Since then, Abbas has lost control of Hamas, which has been
run by much younger leaders.
Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and
Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely
on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas
and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza;
Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in
2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012
and July-August 2014.
These on-and-off clashes cannot go on forever. At some point, they'll
be resolved by a full-fledged generational crisis war that engulfs the
region. In the meantime, there is no chance whatsoever that any sort
of Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" will succeed, and that's just
as true today as it was in 2003. Jerusalem Post and World Israel News and Bloomberg
****
**** Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game'
****
By Thursday morning, after the emergency midnight meeting of cabinet
ministers, the fiery rhetoric had softened. Housing Minsiter Yoav
Galant said:
<QUOTE>"I can’t address the content of cabinet discussion but
I can say one thing very explicitly — the rules of the game are
going to change.
We won’t accept more fire and [border] fence terror."<END QUOTE>
However, the cabinet meeting decision not to launch a military
operation was condemned by other government leaders. According to
Regional Council head Gadi Yarkoni:
<QUOTE>"We had every reason to deliver a serious response in
a way that they would understand the message. We should have
taken advantage of what happened in Beersheba to restore
deterrence, but unfortunately that did not happen."<END QUOTE>
I googled Gadi Yarkoni, and learned that he was born in 1967, which
would put him in Israel's equivalent of Generation-X, much younger
than Netanyahu, born in 1949, or Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, or Hamas
head Khaled Mashal, born in 1956. When there's an all-out war between
Jews and Palestinians, it will be launched by younger people, such as
Yarkoni and a young Palestinian leader.
Although no full-scale war is imminent, Israel's army has been cleared
to follow more aggressive tactics. This includes a green light for
troops to fire at Gazans who are farther away from the fence than
previously allowed, as well a more forceful response to incendiary
balloon launches. According to reports, the army will ramp up the
severity of its responses gradually, but ultimately adopt a
zero-tolerance policy toward rocket attacks, arson balloons and
rioting along the Israeli border. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
- Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel (15-May-2018)
- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
- Jewish extremists clash violently with Israeli soldiers over settlements (05-Jan-2005)
- Yasser Arafat dies (14-Nov-2004)
- Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Beersheeba, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Avigdor Lieberman, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon,
Mahmoud Abbas, Operation Cast Lead,
Yoav Galant, Gadi Yarkoni, Khaled Mashal
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
