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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Trump cancels nuclear proliferation treaty with Russia
  • China warns that the decision will 'cause many negative effects'

****
**** Trump cancels nuclear proliferation treaty with Russia
****


[Image: g160331b.jpg]
China's mobile DF-41 missile would be illegal under the INF treaty

Donald Trump has announced that the US will will leave the
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), that the US signed
with Russia in 1987, and has been called a historic arms control
treaty.

The treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. It was
a response to a growing missile standoff in Europe, where Soviet and
American nuclear short range and cruise missiles were pointed at each
other. The treaty ended a dangerous standoff.

Both Barack Obama and Donald Trump have accused the Russians of
violating the treaty in the last decade with new developments of
cruise missiles. According to Trump on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"Russia has violated the agreement. They’ve been
violating it for many years and I don’t know why President Obama
didn’t negotiate or pull out.

We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and do
weapons and we’re not allowed to. We’re the ones that have stayed
in the agreement and we’ve honored the agreement but Russia has
not unfortunately honored the agreement so we’re going to
terminate the agreement, we’re going to pull out. ...

Unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come
to us and they say, ‘Let’s all of us get smart and let’s none of
us develop those weapons,’ but if Russia’s doing it and if China’s
doing it and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s
unacceptable. So we have a tremendous amount of money to play with
with our military."<END QUOTE>


Russia has accused the US of also violating the agreement pointing,
for example, to unmanned drones that can serve the same functions as
cruise missiles. This may well be a valid argument, but what it shows
is that, after 30 years, the treaty is out of date anyway.

Russian senior lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev said on Sunday said that
Trump's announcement means that "Mankind is facing full chaos in the
nuclear weapons sphere."

Leonid Slutsky, who leads the Foreign Affairs Committee said that
Trump is placing “a huge mine under the whole disarmament process on
the planet.”

The real risk will be borne by European allies, according to Kingston
Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms
Control Association, a think tank. “This removes all constraints on
the production and fielding of Russia’s illegal missile, thereby
increasing the threat to our allies in range of the missiles, leaves
the United States holding the bag for the treaty’s demise, and creates
another source of division between us.”

Mikhail Gorbachev said that the announcement "is not the work of a
great mind." He added:

<QUOTE>"Do they really not understand in Washington what this
can lead to? [The decision] will undermine all the efforts that
were made by the leaders of the USSR and the United States
themselves to achieve nuclear disarmament.

[A]ll agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and the limitation
of nuclear weapons must be preserved for the sake of life on
Earth."<END QUOTE>


Russia Today and Time and CNBC and AP

****
**** China warns that the decision will 'cause many negative effects'
****


Since the announcement, it's become increasingly clear that the real
target of Trump's announcement is China. According to a CIA analysis
in 1983:

<QUOTE>"China's position on arms control is dictated by its
interests in: 1) maintaining a free hand to expand its nuclear
deterrent capabilities; 2) exercising some influence over US-USSR
strategic arms talks that could adversely affect Chinese security;
and 3) enhancing China's status and influence in the Third
World. The Chinese also have sought to promote their commercial
interests through the sale of conventional arms."<END QUOTE>


China has indeed taken advantage of its refusal to join any arms
control agreement. As we've been reporting for years, China has
developed one nuclear ballistic weapons system after another with no
purpose except to attack American cities, American bases, and American
aircraft carriers. It really doesn't make sense that an aggressive,
imperial, militaristic China should have no restrictions developing
nuclear missiles, when other countries are bound by arms control
treaties.

In particular, China has had a free hand developing and deploying
intermediate-range nuclear missiles of its own, including missiles
designed to take out US aircraft carriers patrolling the waters of the
Western Pacific. China is estimated to have 2,000 ballistic and
cruise missiles in its inventory, almost all of which would be in
violation of this treaty.

According to Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at the
International Christian University in Tokyo:

<QUOTE>"China has not signed the agreement and has been
producing mid-range missiles and so-called carrier killers to
asymmetrically increase the costs of an American-led naval
containment strategy. The US is likely withdrawing to send a
message to Beijing that the US can and will produce mid-range
nuclear weapons that can erode away China’s existing asymmetric
advantage."<END QUOTE>


China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the following:

<QUOTE>"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is an
important treaty on arms control and disarmament signed by the
United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. It
has played an important role in easing the international
relations, moving forward the nuclear disarmament process and
safeguarding global strategic balance and stability. It is still
highly relevant today. Unilaterally withdrawing from the treaty
will cause many negative effects.

What needs to be stressed is that making an issue out of China on
withdrawing from the treaty is totally wrong. We hope that the
relevant country can cherish the hard-won outcomes achieved over
the years, prudently and properly handle the issues related to the
treaty through dialogue and consultation and think twice before
withdrawing from the treaty."<END QUOTE>


So China wants the US and Russia to be bound by the treaty, while
China is not. No surprise there. However, when she talks about
causing "many negative effects," we might ask, What is she referring
to?

Whenever I talk about various policies, everything from tariffs and
trade to canceling a North Korea meeting, that completely baffle the
mainstream media, I always come back to the same point. Trump is
aware of the Generational Dynamics analysis and predictions that China
is preparing for full-scale war with the United States. Trump is
aware of this because he was educated by Steve Bannon, who is an
expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics.

So as I always point out, Trump's policies, whether trade or arms
control, have the objective of trying to end China's plans for a
preemptive attack on the United States. And as I always point out, a
war with China is 100% certain, but I'm not going to criticize Trump
for trying to prevent a world war.

But all of these policies are dual-edged. Yes, these policies might
cause the Chinese to postpone their plans, but it might also cause
them to bring these plans forward. Those might be the "negative side
effects" that China's Foreign Ministry is talking about.

Generational crisis wars are not based on rationality and reason.
They're based on desperation and panic. China has numerous domestic
problems -- increasing numbers of "mass incidents," a
highly-imbalanced economy being centrally managed but poorly managed,
numerous bubbles and financial distortions -- and a restive population
that, along with Winnie the Pooh, strikes terror in the hearts of the
Communist central committee. These are more than enough to cause
desperation and anxiety, and could trigger a military panic at any
time. CIA (1-Sep-1983) and Bloomberg and Russia Today and China's Foreign Ministry

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Soviet Union, USSR,
Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev,
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty, INF, Donald Trump,
Barack Obama, Konstantin Kosachev, Leonid Slutsky, Kingston Reif,
Stephen Nagy

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23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Ru - by John J. Xenakis - 10-22-2018, 10:32 PM
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