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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 26-Oct-18 World View -- Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Post-war speeches by Churchill and Kennan defined 'containment' policy for Soviet Union
  • Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations

****
**** Post-war speeches by Churchill and Kennan defined 'containment' policy for Soviet Union
****


[Image: g181025b.jpg]
President Harry Truman and Winston Churchill in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946

On October 4, VP Mike Pence gave a speech on US policy towards China.
Since then, the speech has taken on a great deal of importance, and
it's being compared to speeches by Western officials after World War
II to "contain" the Soviet Union.

On March 3, 1946, Winston Churchill gave a speech he called "The
Sinews of Peace." It contained the following well-remembered
excerpts:

<QUOTE>"From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the
Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the
Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient
states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague,
Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous
cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the
Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not
only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases,
increasing measure of control from Moscow. Athens alone-Greece
with its immortal glories-is free to decide its future at an
election under British, American and French observation. The
Russian-dominated Polish Government has been encouraged to make
enormous and wrongful inroads upon Germany, and mass expulsions of
millions of Germans on a scale grievous and undreamed-of are now
taking place. The Communist parties, which were very small in all
these Eastern States of Europe, have been raised to pre-eminence
and power far beyond their numbers and are seeking everywhere to
obtain totalitarian control. Police governments are prevailing in
nearly every case, and so far, except in Czechoslovakia, there is
no true democracy. ...

However, in a great number of countries, far from the Russian
frontiers and throughout the world, Communist fifth columns are
established and work in complete unity and absolute obedience to
the directions they receive from the Communist centre. Except in
the British Commonwealth and in the United States where Communism
is in its infancy, the Communist parties or fifth columns
constitute a growing challenge and peril to Christian
civilisation. These are sombre facts for anyone to have to recite
on the morrow of a victory gained by so much splendid comradeship
in arms and in the cause of freedom and democracy; but we should
be most unwise not to face them squarely while time
remains."<END QUOTE>


On February 22, 1946, America's ambassador to Moscow George Kennan
sent a "Long Telegram," 8,000 words long, to the US State Department,
describing his recommended policy towards the Soviet Union. The text
was made public in a 1947 article in Foreign Affairs magazine as "The
Sources of Soviet Conduct," by "X" (no relation to me).

Kennan described the ideology of the Soviet Union, and by changing a
few words, the same description would apply to China today. He
described the history of Marxist ideology and how it led to the
Bolshevik revolution. "[T]he capitalist system of production is a
nefarious one which inevitable leads to the exploitation of the
working class by the capital-owning class; ... capitalism contains the
seeds of its own destruction; ... imperialism, the final phase of
capitalism, leads directly to war and revolution." However:

<QUOTE>"Now it must be noted that through all the years of
preparation for revolution, the attention of these men, as indeed
of Marx himself, had been centered less on the future form which
Socialism would take than on the necessary overthrow of rival
power which, in their view, had to precede the introduction of
Socialism. Their views, therefore, on the positive program to be
put into effect, once power was attained, were for the most part
nebulous, visionary and impractical, beyond the nationalization of
industry and the expropriation of large private capital holdings
there was no agreed program. ...

Let it be stressed again that subjectively these men probably did
not seek absolutism for its own sake. They doubtless believed --
and found it easy to believe -- that they alone knew what was good
for society and that they would accomplish that good once their
power was secure and unchallengeable. But in seeking that security
of their own rule they were prepared to recognize no restrictions,
either of God or man, on the character of their methods. And until
such time as that security might be achieved, they placed far down
on their scale of operational priorities the comforts and
happiness of the peoples entrusted to their care.

As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream of parting
with these organs of suppression. The quest for absolute power,
pursued now for nearly three decades with a ruthlessness
unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has again
produced internally, as it did externally, its own reaction. The
excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the potential
opposition to the regime into something far greater and more
dangerous than it could have been before those excesses
began."<END QUOTE>


So Kennan is saying that once these people have won the civil war and
created their Socialist paradises, they turn into cruel, ruthless
despots that retain power by any means possible.

Kennan's description is so well written, and sounds so familiar,
because applies to so many countries today. Of course we can see it
in Venezuela, but we've also seen it in non-Socialist Paradise
countries, including Cameroon, Burundi, Iran and Cambodia. This is a
statement of the finding of Generational Dynamics that whenever any
country experiences an ethnic civil war which is also a generational
crisis war, then in the aftermath, the winning ethnic group oppresses
the losing ethnic group, using torture, beatings, rape and slaughter
to keep the other ethnic group in line. It also applies to all the
other Communist countries that were formed during and after World War
II.

Kennan, writing in 1946, says that the Soviet leaders are still
struggling to complete the 1917 Revolution:

<QUOTE>"As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream
of parting with these organs of suppression. The quest for
absolute power, pursued now for nearly three decades with a
ruthlessness unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has
again produced internally, as it did externally, its own
reaction. The excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the
potential opposition to the regime into something far greater and
more dangerous than it could have been before those excesses
began.

But least of all can the rulers dispense with the fiction by which
the maintenance of dictatorial power has been defended. For this
fiction has been canonized in Soviet philosophy by the excesses
already committed in its name; and it is now anchored in the
Soviet structure of thought by bonds far greater than those of
mere ideology."<END QUOTE>


Kennan says that this dictatorial power, with all its oppression and
atrocities, is so ingrained in the Kremlin's ideology that they
believe they have to use force to spread the same ideology to other
countries. In 1946, this observation was already to clear to many
people, as described in Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech.

In response, Kennan describes his policy of containment:

<QUOTE>"In these circumstances it is clear that the main
element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must
be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of
Russian expansive tendencies. ...

In the light of the above, it will be clearly seen that the Soviet
pressure against the free institutions of the western world is
something that can be contained by the adroit and vigilant
application of counter-force at a series of constantly shifting
geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and
maneuvers of Soviet policy, but which cannot be charmed or talked
out of existence."<END QUOTE>


Kennan went on to describe details of how the Soviet Union could be
contained. Kennan's "Long Telegraph" had a huge impact on Washington
policy, and was debated for years. Winston Churchill (5-March-1946) and History Guide - George Kennan (22-Feb-1946)

****
**** Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations
****


VP Mike Pence's October 4 speech gives a scathing criticism of China's
behavior. Pence's speech is being described as a "containment"
speech, like those of Churchill and Kennan, but directed at China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's important to
remember that there's a big difference. In 1946, WW II had just
ended, and the US, Russia and China were all war-weary, in a
generational Recovery era, with absolutely no desire to fight another
war. There was a war in Korea in which all three countries fought,
but that war was fought so half-heartedly that it ended in a
ceasefire, with no conclusion. Technically, the Korean War has never
ended.

But today, we're all in a generation Crisis era, with xenophobia and
nationalism at a peak in all three countries. If there were a new
Korean war today -- and it's a definite possibility -- then it would
also certainly spread to a wider war and a world war.

Pence says that Donald Trump's administration has adopted "a new
approach to China, ... grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect
for sovereignty."

Pence reminded the Chinese that America has always supported China,
during the so-called "Century of Humiliation" and World War II, and in
the decades after World War II, when "America ensured that China
became a charter member of the United Nations, and a great shaper of
the post-war world." America has opened its markets to China, and
"American universities began training a new generation of Chinese
engineers, business leaders, scholars, and officials."

Pence said that "After the fall of the Soviet Union, we assumed that a
free China was inevitable." As I've written many times, China's
reaction to the fall of the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party was
not to emulate it, but to become paranoid about it, doubling down on
violence and atrocities, for fear that the same thing would happen to
the Chinese Communist Party. So today, says Pence, "The dream of
freedom remains distant for the Chinese people"

Pence went through a list of Chinese policies that have harmed the
Chinese people.
  • Trade."And the Chinese Communist Party has also
    used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade,
    including tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology
    transfer, intellectual property theft, and industrial subsidies that
    are handed out like candy to foreign investment. These policies have
    built Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of its competitors
    -– especially the United States of America."

  • Theft. "To win the commanding heights of the 21st
    century economy, Beijing has directed its bureaucrats and businesses
    to obtain American intellectual property –- the foundation of our
    economic leadership -– by any means necessary. Beijing now requires
    many American businesses to hand over their trade secrets as the cost
    of doing business in China. It also coordinates and sponsors the
    acquisition of American firms to gain ownership of their
    creations. Worst of all, Chinese security agencies have masterminded
    the wholesale theft of American technology –- including cutting-edge
    military blueprints. And using that stolen technology, the Chinese
    Communist Party is turning plowshares into swords on a massive
    scale."

  • Militarization. "Beijing is also using its power
    like never before. Chinese ships routinely patrol around the Senkaku
    Islands, which are administered by Japan. And while China’s leader
    stood in the Rose Garden at the White House in 2015 and said that his
    country had, and I quote, “no intention to militarize” the South China
    Sea, today, Beijing has deployed advanced anti-ship and anti-air
    missiles atop an archipelago of military bases constructed on
    artificial islands."

  • Aggression. "China’s aggression was on display this
    week, when a Chinese naval vessel came within 45 yards of the USS
    Decatur as it conducted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South
    China Sea, forcing our ship to quickly maneuver to avoid
    collision. Despite such reckless harassment, the United States Navy
    will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law
    allows and our national interests demand. We will not be intimidated
    and we will not stand down."

  • Christianity. "Last month, Beijing shut down one of
    China’s largest underground churches. Across the country, authorities
    are tearing down crosses, burning bibles, and imprisoning
    believers. And Beijing has now reached a deal with the Vatican that
    gives the avowedly atheist Communist Party a direct role in appointing
    Catholic bishops. For China’s Christians, these are desperate
    times."

  • Buddhism,Islam. "Beijing is also cracking down on
    Buddhism. Over the past decade, more than 150 Tibetan Buddhist monks
    have lit themselves on fire to protest China’s repression of their
    beliefs and their culture. And in Xinjiang, the Communist Party has
    imprisoned as many as one million Muslim Uyghurs in government camps
    where they endure around-the-clock brainwashing. Survivors of the
    camps have described their experiences as a deliberate attempt by
    Beijing to strangle Uyghur culture and stamp out the Muslim
    faith."

  • Debt Trap. "In fact, China uses so-called “debt
    diplomacy” to expand its influence. Today, that country is offering
    hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments
    from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of
    those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow
    overwhelmingly to Beijing."

Pence went on to describe American's responses to these Chinese
actions, including strengthening the military and implementing
reciprocal tariffs.

In the view of many Chinese, Pence's speech indicates that the United
States has finally dropped its hypocritical mask and shown its true
colors, which is to contain China’s rise just like it did to the
Soviet Union at the beginning of the Cold War, and that the United
States and China are on an irreversible course of conflict in the
coming years. White House and Diplomat

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harry Truman, Winston Churchill,
Soviet Union, Iron Curtain, George Kennan, containment,
Mike Pence, China

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26-Oct-18 World View -- Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contenti - by John J. Xenakis - 10-25-2018, 10:39 PM
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