11-01-2018, 10:48 PM
*** 2-Nov-18 World View -- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
****
![[Image: g181101b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181101b.jpg)
Iranian newspaper critical of Trump (AFP)
In May, the Trump administration withdrew America's position in the
Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At
that time, Trump announced that he was restoring wide-ranging
sanctions on Iran's economy. He Trump gave oil buyers 180 days to
wind down purchases of Iranian oil, and that the final deadline for
oil purchases would be Sunday, November 4. From May to September,
Iran's oil exports fell by about a third.
The Trump administration has the power to enforce the sanctions
because of the way that the international banking systems are
interlocked. Iran can sell oil to another country, but in order to
get paid, payment sooner or later has to pass through an entity that
can be sanctioned by the US for violating the Iran sanctions, or can
be cut off from the US financial system altogether.
The European Union, which has expressed fury at the Trump
administration for taking these actions, has been trying to set up a
"special purpose vehicle" (SPV) that European countries can use to pay
Iran without having to pass through a financial entity that the US can
punish. The original plan was to have the SPV in place by Monday, but
implementing it has turned out to be too complex so far. Furthermore,
EU officials are said to want to avoid a "direct confrontation" with
the Trump administration over Iran before the midterm elections on
Tuesday.
The US has reportedly agreed to grant a waiver to India to permit
Indian oil companies to continue importing Iranian oil for four more
months, until March. The terms of the waiver are not fully clear, but
India will be required to cut its imports by a third. India will make
45% of the purchase in its own rupee currency, which Iran can then use
to purchase rice, drugs and other products from India. The other 55%
of the payment will be made in euros, but this money will be held in
escrow in India banks, until the sanctions are lifted.
There are also reports that South Korea will be granted a waiver,
although the details are not known.
China and Japan are also seeking waivers, but have yet to receive
them. China is Iran's biggest oil customer, but because of the US
sanctions, China's biggest refiners have reportedly halted imports in
November until the US provides clarity. CNBC and India Times and CNBC and AFP
****
**** EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
****
When Trump withdrew from from the JCPOA in May, officials in Denmark
said they were shocked and surprised by Trump's decision. Former
foreign minister Holger K. Nielsen said:
<QUOTE>"It is catastrophic for him to do this. It could have
very serious consequences for the entire region. This was a way to
stay Iran's nuclear ambitions while giving more moderate forces
wind in their sails. It is now a concern that hardliners [in Iran]
will gain power. ...
That's why I am very, very concerned. If Iran resumes nuclear arms
development, I fear that Israel or the US will attack Iran, and
that will make the Iraq war look like a playground fight, because
this would be much worse."<END QUOTE>
That was then. This is now. And now, Denmark is asking the European
Union to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
On September 28, agents from Denmark's intelligence service (PET) saw
an individual taking photos outside the home in Copenhagen of the
leader of Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz
(ASMLA). ASMLA is a separatist group demanding a separate Arab state
in Iran's south-western Khuzestan Province, and is classified as a
terrorist group by Iran. A previous leader of ASMLA had been shot
dead in the Netherlands in November 2017, so PET was concerned that a
new assassination was being planned.
By total coincidence, a Swedish-registered black Volvo started moving
"suspiciously" outside the same house. When they tried to stop the
car, it sped off. This triggered a major manhunt, during which a
number of roads, bridges and ferry routes were shut down, including
connections between Denmark and Sweden. It turned out that the three
occupants of the Volvo had no relation to the ASMLA case, but that the
Volvo was a stolen car. They were only caught because of the ASMLA
case, making them "the world's most unlucky criminals," according to
the Copenhagen police.
The man taking the pictures was a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin.
He was arrested in Norway on October 21, and extradited to Denmark. A
search of his home revealed numerous photos of the residences of
members of ASMLA.
Danish security officials have accused Iranian intelligence of
"planning an attack on Danish soil" against Iranian Arab dissidents.
Iran's Foreign Ministry denied the country had any role in the alleged
assassination plot. It said in a statement:
<QUOTE>"This is yet another scenario in a series of
conspiracies and plots by well-known Iran adversaries in an
attempt to jeopardize the good and progressive Iran-EU relations
at this very important and critical juncture."<END QUOTE>
Other Iranian official suggested sabotage by the US, Saudi Arabia or
Israel.
Some analysts claim that hardliners in Iran's intelligence services
may plan plots in Europe without the knowledge or control of Iran's
government. The rogue elements may even be trying to undermine
pragmatists in the Iranian government and good relations with the
Europe.
This is actually believable. As I describe in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, Iran is one of the most corrupt
governments in the world. Iran's constitution has no checks and
balances, and the only way to get ahead in the government is through
bribery, extortion and corruption.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington
stood behind Denmark, a Nato ally.
<QUOTE>"We congratulate the government of #Denmark on its
arrest of an Iranian regime assassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe
has been the target of #Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks. We call
on our allies and partners to confront the full range of Iran’s
threats to peace and security. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo)
October 30, 2018"<END QUOTE>
This situation has thrown a huge stumbling block into the EU plans to
keep the JCPOA deal alive.
Iran has had a long record of pursuing opponents living abroad. Last
month, a series of raids in France and across Europe caught several
Iranian diplomats and sleeper cells planning terrorist operations.
( "4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe"
)
There's a darkly ironic twist because Iran has strongly condemned
Saudi Arabia's killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul Turkey, and is
now accused of the same crime. Russia has used the nerve agent
Novichok to murder opponents living in Britain, but to my knowledge
they've issued no statement on Iran's alleged assassination attempt in
Copenhagen. The Local (Denmark, 9-May) and Deutsche Welle and The Local (Denmark, 29-Sep) and Washington Post
John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle
East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
European Union, India, China, Japan,
Denmark, Holger K. Nielsen, PET, Norway, Sweden,
Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz, ASMLA,
Mike Pompeo, Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Russia, Novichok
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
****
**** Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
****
Iranian newspaper critical of Trump (AFP)
In May, the Trump administration withdrew America's position in the
Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At
that time, Trump announced that he was restoring wide-ranging
sanctions on Iran's economy. He Trump gave oil buyers 180 days to
wind down purchases of Iranian oil, and that the final deadline for
oil purchases would be Sunday, November 4. From May to September,
Iran's oil exports fell by about a third.
The Trump administration has the power to enforce the sanctions
because of the way that the international banking systems are
interlocked. Iran can sell oil to another country, but in order to
get paid, payment sooner or later has to pass through an entity that
can be sanctioned by the US for violating the Iran sanctions, or can
be cut off from the US financial system altogether.
The European Union, which has expressed fury at the Trump
administration for taking these actions, has been trying to set up a
"special purpose vehicle" (SPV) that European countries can use to pay
Iran without having to pass through a financial entity that the US can
punish. The original plan was to have the SPV in place by Monday, but
implementing it has turned out to be too complex so far. Furthermore,
EU officials are said to want to avoid a "direct confrontation" with
the Trump administration over Iran before the midterm elections on
Tuesday.
The US has reportedly agreed to grant a waiver to India to permit
Indian oil companies to continue importing Iranian oil for four more
months, until March. The terms of the waiver are not fully clear, but
India will be required to cut its imports by a third. India will make
45% of the purchase in its own rupee currency, which Iran can then use
to purchase rice, drugs and other products from India. The other 55%
of the payment will be made in euros, but this money will be held in
escrow in India banks, until the sanctions are lifted.
There are also reports that South Korea will be granted a waiver,
although the details are not known.
China and Japan are also seeking waivers, but have yet to receive
them. China is Iran's biggest oil customer, but because of the US
sanctions, China's biggest refiners have reportedly halted imports in
November until the US provides clarity. CNBC and India Times and CNBC and AFP
****
**** EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
****
When Trump withdrew from from the JCPOA in May, officials in Denmark
said they were shocked and surprised by Trump's decision. Former
foreign minister Holger K. Nielsen said:
<QUOTE>"It is catastrophic for him to do this. It could have
very serious consequences for the entire region. This was a way to
stay Iran's nuclear ambitions while giving more moderate forces
wind in their sails. It is now a concern that hardliners [in Iran]
will gain power. ...
That's why I am very, very concerned. If Iran resumes nuclear arms
development, I fear that Israel or the US will attack Iran, and
that will make the Iraq war look like a playground fight, because
this would be much worse."<END QUOTE>
That was then. This is now. And now, Denmark is asking the European
Union to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
On September 28, agents from Denmark's intelligence service (PET) saw
an individual taking photos outside the home in Copenhagen of the
leader of Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz
(ASMLA). ASMLA is a separatist group demanding a separate Arab state
in Iran's south-western Khuzestan Province, and is classified as a
terrorist group by Iran. A previous leader of ASMLA had been shot
dead in the Netherlands in November 2017, so PET was concerned that a
new assassination was being planned.
By total coincidence, a Swedish-registered black Volvo started moving
"suspiciously" outside the same house. When they tried to stop the
car, it sped off. This triggered a major manhunt, during which a
number of roads, bridges and ferry routes were shut down, including
connections between Denmark and Sweden. It turned out that the three
occupants of the Volvo had no relation to the ASMLA case, but that the
Volvo was a stolen car. They were only caught because of the ASMLA
case, making them "the world's most unlucky criminals," according to
the Copenhagen police.
The man taking the pictures was a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin.
He was arrested in Norway on October 21, and extradited to Denmark. A
search of his home revealed numerous photos of the residences of
members of ASMLA.
Danish security officials have accused Iranian intelligence of
"planning an attack on Danish soil" against Iranian Arab dissidents.
Iran's Foreign Ministry denied the country had any role in the alleged
assassination plot. It said in a statement:
<QUOTE>"This is yet another scenario in a series of
conspiracies and plots by well-known Iran adversaries in an
attempt to jeopardize the good and progressive Iran-EU relations
at this very important and critical juncture."<END QUOTE>
Other Iranian official suggested sabotage by the US, Saudi Arabia or
Israel.
Some analysts claim that hardliners in Iran's intelligence services
may plan plots in Europe without the knowledge or control of Iran's
government. The rogue elements may even be trying to undermine
pragmatists in the Iranian government and good relations with the
Europe.
This is actually believable. As I describe in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, Iran is one of the most corrupt
governments in the world. Iran's constitution has no checks and
balances, and the only way to get ahead in the government is through
bribery, extortion and corruption.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington
stood behind Denmark, a Nato ally.
<QUOTE>"We congratulate the government of #Denmark on its
arrest of an Iranian regime assassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe
has been the target of #Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks. We call
on our allies and partners to confront the full range of Iran’s
threats to peace and security. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo)
October 30, 2018"<END QUOTE>
This situation has thrown a huge stumbling block into the EU plans to
keep the JCPOA deal alive.
Iran has had a long record of pursuing opponents living abroad. Last
month, a series of raids in France and across Europe caught several
Iranian diplomats and sleeper cells planning terrorist operations.
( "4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe"
)
There's a darkly ironic twist because Iran has strongly condemned
Saudi Arabia's killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul Turkey, and is
now accused of the same crime. Russia has used the nerve agent
Novichok to murder opponents living in Britain, but to my knowledge
they've issued no statement on Iran's alleged assassination attempt in
Copenhagen. The Local (Denmark, 9-May) and Deutsche Welle and The Local (Denmark, 29-Sep) and Washington Post
John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle
East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.
Related Articles:
- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe (04-Oct-2018)
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
- Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions (08-Aug-2018)
- Kurdish protesters attack Iran's embassy in Paris (17-Sep-2018)
- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
European Union, India, China, Japan,
Denmark, Holger K. Nielsen, PET, Norway, Sweden,
Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz, ASMLA,
Mike Pompeo, Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Russia, Novichok
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
