11-09-2018, 11:50 PM
*** 10-Nov-18 World View -- China and India compete for influence in Sri Lanka and Maldives constitutional crises
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
****
![[Image: g181109b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181109b.jpg)
A poster in Colombo, Sri Lanka, shows Mahinda Rajapaksa, left, with President Maithripala Sirisena (Reuters)
There are major individual government crises in progress in both the
Maldives and Sri Lanka, and they are linked by China's interference in
the affairs of both countries by using "debt trap diplomacy" related
to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Sri Lanka's president Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament on
Friday, after his administration promised that he wouldn't do that.
Sirisena fired prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, and
appointed a new prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Sirisena wanted the parliament to confirm his actions, but after it
became clear that he wouldn't have the votes, he dissolved parliament
to prevent a vote.
An interesting angle is that the Tamil MPs specifically refused
Sirisena's request that they abstain from the vote. The ethnic Hindu
Tamil minority community was defeated in a generational crisis civil
war that climaxed in 2009, with Rajapaksa leading the ethnic Buddhist
Sinhalese majority to victory, amid charges of war crimes.
So rather than allow a vote, Sirisena dissolved the parliament and
called for snap elections in January. Sirisena's opponents are saying
that both the decision to fire the prime minister and the decision to
dissolve the parliament are unconstitutional. So the constitutional
crisis and government gridlock is expected to continue into the new
year.
Sirisena has never given any explanation for why he fired his prime
minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It's now emerged that Sirisena were in
sharp disagreement over whether a seaport project in the country
capital Colombo should be awarded to a Chinese firm, favored by
Sirisena, or an Indian firm, favored by Wickremesinghe.
Wickremesinghe was fired just after that loud disagreement, and
Rajapaksa was appointed.
Rajapaksa has always had close relations with China. When Rajapaksa
was president, he signed the agreement with China to build the
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China.
Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back. Still, because of Sri Lanka's strategic importance, both India
and China want to be build the new infrastructure projects. The
constitutional crisis may appear to be a domestic matter, but it has
important geopolitical implication. Times of Sri Lanka and Reuters and
Channel News Asia
****
**** New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
****
![[Image: g180206b.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180206b.gif)
Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean
At the time I wrote about
the
September 23 Maldives election, it seemed the country could be headed
for its own constitutional crisis. The country was in something of a
state of shock because the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen, who had
never hesitated to use vote-rigging or jailings or violence to win
elections, had been expected to win. Instead, his opponent, Ibrahim
Mohamed Solih, won decisively, by 58-41% of the vote.
It was suspected that Yameen could not step down, since a new
administration would discover massive corruption in Yameen's dealings
with China. China had arranged for a "debt trap" for Maldives, and
Yameen's family was heavily involved in China's infrastructure
projects in the five years Yameen was in power. As usual, the
contractual specifics between the Maldives and China were completely
secret. In other countries where situations like this have occurred,
the leader and his family are often so heavily involved in bribery and
corruption that they dare not lose power.
So it was feared that Yameen would use whatever tactics and power he
could to overturn the election, but it seems that he was unable to do
so because Solih's win was so huge.
The first thing Solih did after winning the elect was to meewith with
the Chinese ambassador, where he learned that the Maldives owed the
Chinese $3 billion, not the $1.5 billion he had previously been told.
That’s more revenue than Maldives' government raises in two years – a
staggering figure that makes the Maldives a prime example of how
Chinese loans have swamped smaller economies with loans that can't be
repaid.
Details of the debt – and how much might have been stolen – will only
begin to emerge after Solih takes office on November 17 and his aides
gain complete access to documents Yameen’s government hid from
lawmakers and the public. But information already collected by Solih’s
transition team indicates the liabilities are greater than initially
believed and will soon outpace the country's ability to pay.
It's amazing how China has gotten away with "debt trap diplomacy" in
country after country. They loan a country to build infrastructure
proects that will strategically benefit China and only marginally
benefit the local population. The require that the loan money be used
to purchase parts and services from Chinese firms, and that almost all
workers must be Chinese. So instead of benefiting the local factories
and workers, the money goes back to China to benefit factories and
people there. And then the country still has to repay the loan, which
means that they're repaying the loan twice.
At this point, China's "debt trap diplomacy" has gotten so much
publicity that many countries are now cutting back on Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) projects. Both Malaysia and Pakistan have recently
cut back or cancelled BRI projects. The latest is Sierra Leone, which
has accumulated more than $220 million in Chinese debt, and last month
canceled a new airport project with Chinese labor and loans.
In the Maldives, Solih has promised to examine all contracts and
leases to see which should be cut back or modified. Because the
Maldives and Sri Lanka are both so strategically important and are
both in the Indian Ocean just off the southern tip of India, both
India and China have similar interests in South China Morning Post and National Herald India and Reuters (11-Oct) and Standard Times Press (Sierra Leone)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena,
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa, India, Hambantota port,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Maldives, Abdulla Yameen, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih,
Malaysia, Pakistan, Sierra Leone
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
- New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
****
**** Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
****
A poster in Colombo, Sri Lanka, shows Mahinda Rajapaksa, left, with President Maithripala Sirisena (Reuters)
There are major individual government crises in progress in both the
Maldives and Sri Lanka, and they are linked by China's interference in
the affairs of both countries by using "debt trap diplomacy" related
to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Sri Lanka's president Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament on
Friday, after his administration promised that he wouldn't do that.
Sirisena fired prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, and
appointed a new prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Sirisena wanted the parliament to confirm his actions, but after it
became clear that he wouldn't have the votes, he dissolved parliament
to prevent a vote.
An interesting angle is that the Tamil MPs specifically refused
Sirisena's request that they abstain from the vote. The ethnic Hindu
Tamil minority community was defeated in a generational crisis civil
war that climaxed in 2009, with Rajapaksa leading the ethnic Buddhist
Sinhalese majority to victory, amid charges of war crimes.
So rather than allow a vote, Sirisena dissolved the parliament and
called for snap elections in January. Sirisena's opponents are saying
that both the decision to fire the prime minister and the decision to
dissolve the parliament are unconstitutional. So the constitutional
crisis and government gridlock is expected to continue into the new
year.
Sirisena has never given any explanation for why he fired his prime
minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It's now emerged that Sirisena were in
sharp disagreement over whether a seaport project in the country
capital Colombo should be awarded to a Chinese firm, favored by
Sirisena, or an Indian firm, favored by Wickremesinghe.
Wickremesinghe was fired just after that loud disagreement, and
Rajapaksa was appointed.
Rajapaksa has always had close relations with China. When Rajapaksa
was president, he signed the agreement with China to build the
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China.
Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back. Still, because of Sri Lanka's strategic importance, both India
and China want to be build the new infrastructure projects. The
constitutional crisis may appear to be a domestic matter, but it has
important geopolitical implication. Times of Sri Lanka and Reuters and
Channel News Asia
****
**** New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
****
Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean
At the time I wrote about
the
September 23 Maldives election, it seemed the country could be headed
for its own constitutional crisis. The country was in something of a
state of shock because the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen, who had
never hesitated to use vote-rigging or jailings or violence to win
elections, had been expected to win. Instead, his opponent, Ibrahim
Mohamed Solih, won decisively, by 58-41% of the vote.
It was suspected that Yameen could not step down, since a new
administration would discover massive corruption in Yameen's dealings
with China. China had arranged for a "debt trap" for Maldives, and
Yameen's family was heavily involved in China's infrastructure
projects in the five years Yameen was in power. As usual, the
contractual specifics between the Maldives and China were completely
secret. In other countries where situations like this have occurred,
the leader and his family are often so heavily involved in bribery and
corruption that they dare not lose power.
So it was feared that Yameen would use whatever tactics and power he
could to overturn the election, but it seems that he was unable to do
so because Solih's win was so huge.
The first thing Solih did after winning the elect was to meewith with
the Chinese ambassador, where he learned that the Maldives owed the
Chinese $3 billion, not the $1.5 billion he had previously been told.
That’s more revenue than Maldives' government raises in two years – a
staggering figure that makes the Maldives a prime example of how
Chinese loans have swamped smaller economies with loans that can't be
repaid.
Details of the debt – and how much might have been stolen – will only
begin to emerge after Solih takes office on November 17 and his aides
gain complete access to documents Yameen’s government hid from
lawmakers and the public. But information already collected by Solih’s
transition team indicates the liabilities are greater than initially
believed and will soon outpace the country's ability to pay.
It's amazing how China has gotten away with "debt trap diplomacy" in
country after country. They loan a country to build infrastructure
proects that will strategically benefit China and only marginally
benefit the local population. The require that the loan money be used
to purchase parts and services from Chinese firms, and that almost all
workers must be Chinese. So instead of benefiting the local factories
and workers, the money goes back to China to benefit factories and
people there. And then the country still has to repay the loan, which
means that they're repaying the loan twice.
At this point, China's "debt trap diplomacy" has gotten so much
publicity that many countries are now cutting back on Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) projects. Both Malaysia and Pakistan have recently
cut back or cancelled BRI projects. The latest is Sierra Leone, which
has accumulated more than $220 million in Chinese debt, and last month
canceled a new airport project with Chinese labor and loans.
In the Maldives, Solih has promised to examine all contracts and
leases to see which should be cut back or modified. Because the
Maldives and Sri Lanka are both so strategically important and are
both in the Indian Ocean just off the southern tip of India, both
India and China have similar interests in South China Morning Post and National Herald India and Reuters (11-Oct) and Standard Times Press (Sierra Leone)
Related Articles:
- Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China (31-Oct-2018)
- China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
- Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils (14-Jan-2016)
- Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean (07-Feb-2018)
- Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election (24-Sep-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena,
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa, India, Hambantota port,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Maldives, Abdulla Yameen, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih,
Malaysia, Pakistan, Sierra Leone
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
