11-16-2018, 11:46 PM
*** 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
****
![[Image: g181116b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181116b.jpg)
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on 19-Sep-2018 (AP)
As the charm offensive involving the Koreas and the United States
continues, the North Koreans have made their next move, with an
announcement in North Korean media that "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un
Supervises Newly Developed Tactical Weapon Test."
The news report describes the weapon as an "ultramodern tactical
weapon", and combines a description of the child dictator's glee with
claims that his father Kim Jong-il had the engineering skill to have
personally directed the new weapon's development:
<QUOTE>"After seeing the power of the tactical weapon,
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was so excited to say that another
great work was done by the defense scientists and munitions
industrial workers to increase the defense capability of the
country and the weapon system whose development Chairman Kim
Jong-il had chosen personally and directed step by step with his
special attention paid to it was born at last. He added that the
weapon is just like a posthumous weapon and he missed Kim Jong-il
very much while seeing the great success of its test. ...
He expressed great satisfaction, saying the great success serves
as another striking demonstration of the validity of the Party
policy of prioritizing defense science and technology and the
rapidly developing defense capability of the country and as a
decisive turn in bolstering the fighting capacity of the Korean
People's Army."<END QUOTE>
No further description was given of the weapon. It's described as a
"tactical weapon," and one online definition of that phrase says that
"Tactical weapons are designed for offensive or defensive use at
relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences."
We assume then that the word "tactical" was used purposely to
imply that the weapon would not be used against the United
States, but could be used against South Korea.
We further assume that therefore this announcement was meant as a
warning to South Korea's president Moon Jae-in. We take note of the
fact that North Korea has never repudiated its primary mission of
using military force to reunite North and South Korea under North
Korean control.
So one purpose of the announcement is to reassure the North Korean
domestic audience that weapons development is continuing, and
preparations for an invasion of the South are continuing.
A second purpose might be retaliation for the resumption by the US and
South Korea earlier this month of some minor joint military marine drills.
Third, we can assume that Kim's announcement was intended as a threat
of war to South Korea, unless Moon Jae-in meets Kim's demands,
including declaring an end to the Korean War, and convincing President
Trump to agree to reduce sanctions. DPRK Today
and Reuters
and ABC News
****
**** The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course
****
A year ago at this time, it appeared that the United States
and North Korea were close to war, after multiple nuclear and
ballistic missile tests by the North Koreans.
The climate changed dramatically early in January, when Kim
Jong-un began his "charm offensive," based on North Korea's
participation in the Olympics games in Seoul, South Korea.
Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in immediately responded with their own
"charm counter-offensive." All sides stood down from threats and
threatening actions, and had a sort of love-in, with various summit
meetings and actions like clearing land mines along the South-North
border.
It was quickly apparent to everyone that North Korea had no intention
to denuclearize under any circumstances. Nonetheless, the charm
offensive/counter-offensive has been a great convenience that has met
the needs for all sides:
It was pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and the general
public) within a month from the beginning of the charm offensive that
it was all a show -- that North Korea would never denuclearize, and
that Trump would never agree to reduce the sanctions. But all sides
kept it up because it solve their immediate political problems by
"kicking the can down the road" -- that is, masking and hiding
problems and postponing them until later.
The charm offensive has been going on for almost a year. Could
it go on for another year? Maybe. That's the kind of chaotic
political decision that cannot be predicted.
President Trump has said that he's in no hurry, implying that
he's willing to continue the charm offensive indefinitely if
necessary. However, it's the North that is suffering under
the sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to be increasingly impatient
about the sanctions.
So it's really up to Kim how long the charm offensive /
counter-offensive will last. He may decide that sanctions will never
be lifted anyway, and so there's no point in waiting. He may take
action next week, next month or next year. All we can do is wait.
Yonhap (S. Korea) and Reuters and Defense News
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Moon Jae-in, South Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
- The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course
****
**** North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
****
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on 19-Sep-2018 (AP)
As the charm offensive involving the Koreas and the United States
continues, the North Koreans have made their next move, with an
announcement in North Korean media that "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un
Supervises Newly Developed Tactical Weapon Test."
The news report describes the weapon as an "ultramodern tactical
weapon", and combines a description of the child dictator's glee with
claims that his father Kim Jong-il had the engineering skill to have
personally directed the new weapon's development:
<QUOTE>"After seeing the power of the tactical weapon,
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was so excited to say that another
great work was done by the defense scientists and munitions
industrial workers to increase the defense capability of the
country and the weapon system whose development Chairman Kim
Jong-il had chosen personally and directed step by step with his
special attention paid to it was born at last. He added that the
weapon is just like a posthumous weapon and he missed Kim Jong-il
very much while seeing the great success of its test. ...
He expressed great satisfaction, saying the great success serves
as another striking demonstration of the validity of the Party
policy of prioritizing defense science and technology and the
rapidly developing defense capability of the country and as a
decisive turn in bolstering the fighting capacity of the Korean
People's Army."<END QUOTE>
No further description was given of the weapon. It's described as a
"tactical weapon," and one online definition of that phrase says that
"Tactical weapons are designed for offensive or defensive use at
relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences."
We assume then that the word "tactical" was used purposely to
imply that the weapon would not be used against the United
States, but could be used against South Korea.
We further assume that therefore this announcement was meant as a
warning to South Korea's president Moon Jae-in. We take note of the
fact that North Korea has never repudiated its primary mission of
using military force to reunite North and South Korea under North
Korean control.
So one purpose of the announcement is to reassure the North Korean
domestic audience that weapons development is continuing, and
preparations for an invasion of the South are continuing.
A second purpose might be retaliation for the resumption by the US and
South Korea earlier this month of some minor joint military marine drills.
Third, we can assume that Kim's announcement was intended as a threat
of war to South Korea, unless Moon Jae-in meets Kim's demands,
including declaring an end to the Korean War, and convincing President
Trump to agree to reduce sanctions. DPRK Today
and Reuters
and ABC News
****
**** The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course
****
A year ago at this time, it appeared that the United States
and North Korea were close to war, after multiple nuclear and
ballistic missile tests by the North Koreans.
The climate changed dramatically early in January, when Kim
Jong-un began his "charm offensive," based on North Korea's
participation in the Olympics games in Seoul, South Korea.
Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in immediately responded with their own
"charm counter-offensive." All sides stood down from threats and
threatening actions, and had a sort of love-in, with various summit
meetings and actions like clearing land mines along the South-North
border.
It was quickly apparent to everyone that North Korea had no intention
to denuclearize under any circumstances. Nonetheless, the charm
offensive/counter-offensive has been a great convenience that has met
the needs for all sides:
- North Korea has been able to continue nuclear and
ballistic message development in secret, with only the restriction
that no open testing would be possible.
- North Korea could use the charm offensive to pressure the the US
to agree to remove sanctions without denuclearization. North Korea
was partially successful in this objective in the sense that China,
Russia and other countries are trading with North Korea in violation
of the sanctions, thus mitigating their effectiveness.
- Moon Jae-in used the charm offensive to pursue a policy
of normalizing relations with the North, in order to satisfy
his domestic constituency. - Donald Trump used the charm offensive to be able to
claim throughout the campaigning for the midterm elections that
he was keeping the North from testing nuclear weapons and
ballistic missiles.
It was pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and the general
public) within a month from the beginning of the charm offensive that
it was all a show -- that North Korea would never denuclearize, and
that Trump would never agree to reduce the sanctions. But all sides
kept it up because it solve their immediate political problems by
"kicking the can down the road" -- that is, masking and hiding
problems and postponing them until later.
The charm offensive has been going on for almost a year. Could
it go on for another year? Maybe. That's the kind of chaotic
political decision that cannot be predicted.
President Trump has said that he's in no hurry, implying that
he's willing to continue the charm offensive indefinitely if
necessary. However, it's the North that is suffering under
the sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to be increasingly impatient
about the sanctions.
So it's really up to Kim how long the charm offensive /
counter-offensive will last. He may decide that sanctions will never
be lifted anyway, and so there's no point in waiting. He may take
action next week, next month or next year. All we can do is wait.
Yonhap (S. Korea) and Reuters and Defense News
Related Articles:
- North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
- China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
- US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Moon Jae-in, South Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
