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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 29-Nov-18 World View -- New climate change report shows countries are failing to meet commitments

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • New climate change report shows countries are failing to meet commitments
  • China building a 'tsunami' of coal-powered plants across Asia

****
**** New climate change report shows countries are failing to meet commitments
****


[Image: g181128b.jpg]
Satellite image of coal-fired power plant in Guangdong province, China. The two cooling towers are clearly visible. (Planet Labs)

A new United Nations report on climate change shows that countries
that had been vocal about supporting the 2015 treaty on climate change
have been failing miserably at meeting the goals of that treaty.

According to the Paris treaty, the world had to reduce carbon
emissions sufficiently to prevent the world temperatures from rising
more than 2 degrees Centigrade by 2100. In order to meet that target,
global greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall by 55% by 2030.

Then recently a new report by scientists said that 2 degrees wasn't good enough to avoid global catastrophe,
and so we'd have to cut carbon emissions enough
to prevent world temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees
Centigrade.

Unfortunately, the countries of the world haven't been doing what they
promised, and global greenhouse gas emissions actually increased in
2017. If things continue as they are, then global temperatures will
increase by 3.2 degrees Centigrade by 2100.

The report describes different countries:
  • Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU (including the UK), South
    Korea, Saudi Arabia and South Africa are falling significantly short
    of their commitments.

  • Greenhouse emissions are surging in China. Even so, China made
    almost no commitments in 2015, so it's meeting its non-existent
    commitments.

  • Other countries, Brazil, Japan, India, Russia and Turkey are
    either on track or slightly ahead. But these "third world" countries
    made very small commitments in 2015.

  • The United States reached peak emissions in 2007, and the amount
    of emissions has been falling since then. However, in 2015, President
    Barack Obama made substantially greater commitments that are not now
    being met.

According to the report, the countries that failed to meet their
emission commitments did so because their economies had been growing.
The report implies that emissions of greenhouse gases are correlated
to economic growth. This is an eminently obvious conclusion, and is
certainly true.

But it also implies that greenhouse gas emissions will not be sharply
cut unless economic growth is sharply cut, and that's not going to
happen in any country.

There is nothing in the Paris treaty that describes any technology for
reducing carbon emissions except by cutting economic activity. As for
other technologies, they only provide a minuscule part of the
solution, and anyway environmentalists are opposed to those too.
These include nuclear power plants, huge windmill farms, and huge
solar panel farms.

As usual, every time I write one of these articles on climate change,
I make the point that I accept the conclusions of the climate
"scientists": That there has been and is global warming, that the
global warming is caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, and that the increased emissions are caused by
human activity.

However, climate "scientists" have been getting climate change
predictions completely wrong for thirty years, and so I do not accept
that these scientists have any idea what the temperature will be in
2100, any more than then know what the temperature will be a month
from now.

Even if you accept the scientific conclusion that human activity is
causing global warming, the climate change movement is still scam.
It's nothing but a movement to take money from developed countries
(the US, the EU, etc.) and give it to developing countries, and also
give it to the cronies of the climate change activists by funding
them.

Every scientific organization in the world understands that if they
can "solve" the emissions problem with new technology, then they'll be
billionaires. No further encouragement is needed, and no climate
change treaty is need.

Furthermore, it's almost 100% certain that there will be one or two
world wars prior to 2100, killing 30-50% of the world's population.
That reduction in the population will reduce the amount of human
activity by a proportional amount, which will completely solve the
global warming problem. BBC and
CNN and Washington Post and France 24 and United Nations

****
**** China building a 'tsunami' of coal-powered plants across Asia
****


"Like an approaching tsunami triggered by a distant earthquake, a
massive cohort of hundreds of new coal-fired power plants is on course
to be added to the already overbuilt Chinese coal plant fleet," is how
a September report from CoalSwarm’s Global Coal Plant Tracker begins.

In 2016 and 2017, authorities in Beijing tried to reduce the number of
coal-fired plants being built, and they issued a series of suspension
orders for many of the plants scheduled for construction.

However, satellite imagery shows that many of the suspended plants
were not suspended at all, or at most were delayed. Apparently,
regional and provincial authorities ignored the suspension orders from
Beijing, and allowed construction to continue anyway.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this illustrates how
major decisions are made large populations or large generations of
people, even in a dictatorship. Someone commented on my recent article on China's Belt and Road Initiative,
and said that all the projects would be completed
because China is a "command economy." But China has a population of
1.4 billion people, and a population that size cannot be controlled,
even in a "command economy." China is far too big a country, long
overdue for a major internal rebellion with the right triggering
event.

However, China's activities with coal-fired plants go far beyond their
borders.

China is taking a leading role in financing a wave of now coal plants
in countries across Asia. Export credit agencies such as the Japan
Bank for International Cooperation, China Development Bank Corp. and
Korea Trade Insurance Corp. are among the biggest supporters. The
three biggest destinations for those funds are Indonesia, Bangladesh
and Vietnam.

China alone emits 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but that's
just within China's own borders. Thanks to China, greenhouse gas
emissions are increasing in countries across Asia as well. Guardian (London) and BBC and
China Dialogue and EndCoal and Bloomberg

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Climate change, China, Paris treaty

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29-Nov-18 World View -- New climate change report shows countries are failing to meet - by John J. Xenakis - 11-28-2018, 11:53 PM
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